Spockydog Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 We'll know about this way in the future when historians piece together exactly what happened when, but I suspect Putin did not get complete 'buy-in' for the invasion from his top brass, and they may have half assed a lot of it. May also have nixed some of the more brutal aspects as well. Maybe part of it has to do with the deep connections Ukraine and Russia had in the past, and some people were genuinely queasy about this kind of invasion against their almost-kin (the counterargument is of course what about Crimea, but this is on a different scale). Edit: Of course the history is also a bit fraught, but nevertheless there was a lot of cross border association. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Spockydog said: I’ve seen a lot of weird facts about him on Twitter today, including that he won the Ukrainian Dancing with the Stars and he’s the voice of Paddington in the local dub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 I'm far more willing to believe overstating of competence and professionalism of Russia military than I am humanistic interpretations. This reminds me a lot of the US view of friendly Afghanistan forces and how willing and able they were to fight, a major lie pushed by wanting to believe it and corruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Quote I'm getting the nagging feeling that they might have been goaded into a botched invasion by counter intelligence. Egypt pulled a similar trick in Yom Kippur and they almost succeed, feeding wrong intelligence to Israel about the capabilities of their military. I genuinely think it was, at least in part, Afghanistan. Putin looked at the Taliban rolling across Afghanistan and thought he could replicate that, despite the situation being completely different. I also think it may have been a feeling that Ukraine's military was getting stronger and stronger, with more and more advanced weaponry and better training. The Turkish drones may have been the last straw. Ironically, they haven't figured that much in the conflict, but the few times they've been used seem to have been devastating for the Russians (the Turkish military is probably very happy at that). Putin may have thought he could invade Ukraine now with 200,000 troops or otherwise in five years he'd need a million. One thing that is clear is that the Ukrainian 2022 military could have rolled into the rebel strongholds and cleaned them out in relatively short order, and only the fear of sparking a Russian response stopped them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Maybe part of it has to do with the deep connections Ukraine and Russia had in the past, and some people were genuinely queasy about this kind of invasion against their almost-kin (the counterargument is of course what about Crimea, but this is on a different scale). Crimea hardly required a take over. Many military units and authorities went over, the population is pro-Russian. Even the situation in the Donbass was different as the population there truly felt threatened and atrocities occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingintheNorth4 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Putin is trying to flex his nuclear muscle. It might be a sign of desperation on his part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 1 minute ago, KingintheNorth4 said: Putin is trying to flex his nuclear muscle. It might be a sign of desperation on his part. Yeah, people panicking a bit, but they need to remember he made bellicose nuclear threats when Trump bombed Syria and absolutely nothing came of it. Obviously it's very concerning and the stakes here are higher, and Putin is already doing something beyond his normal "rational actor" range of behaviour, so the fear is he might go beyond even that. The question is if he's gone totally nihilistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorn Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Kalibuster said: The other thing I am shocked about that I got wrong was how unwilling Russia has been to bomb the shit out of the cities. I expect significantly more brutality and mass casualties, and for whatever reason that has not happened yet. Kyiv in particular has great historical, and to some extent religious, importance for Russians. It's not Grozny or Aleppo. I'm guessing that even Putin might be reluctant to give the order to raze it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said: Even the situation in the Donbass was different as the population there truly felt threatened and atrocities occurred. Do we really know what happened in the Donbass? I time of propaganda and misinformation. 6 hours ago, DMC said: I dunno, I think it was a pretty safe bet Putain was gonna employ nuclear diplomacy one or another once he started this. Ok. Definitely not on my list (at this stage anyhow). But there is a lot I don't know about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Another loss for Putin. Many people have started using Kyiv and not Kiev. I need all my video game people to make this change on the maps. (Looking at you Paradox) Edit: Ha. I just tried to google Kiev. It was corrected to Kyiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 Interesting report from MSN citing Russian sources that Russia is preparing for a mass casualty event… now… that it wasn’t prepared for at the outset: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/leaked-document-shows-russia-is-preparing-for-a-massive-medical-emergency-of-ukraine-war-casualties/ar-AAUkSds?fbclid=IwAR2C3UVffc8qU5wMXssQxmAjBqfh2pcfrSsjowodycDxU-ralaBWvT7ufO0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briantw Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, Kalibuster said: I'm far more willing to believe overstating of competence and professionalism of Russia military than I am humanistic interpretations. I don't think it's Putin not being willing to murder civilians in Ukraine, but rather the optics of doing so and the fact that it would almost certainly just further embolden NATo and the various other countries helping Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoodedCrow Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 I read that the army brought mobile crematoria, which is handy for disguising casualties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 Just saw a photo of Ukrainian highway notice electronic billboards that have been changed to read “go fuck yourself” In Russian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Just saw a photo of Ukrainian highway notice electronic billboards that have been changed to read “go fuck yourself” In Russian. Fake, but hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 The only sour note in the unified front against Russia has been (the corrupt) FIFA, that has allowed the Russian team to continue qualifying for the World Cup, even though its opponents have said (Poland for starters) that they wouldn't play. If you add to that whatever Qatar is doing, I may just give this world cup a pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 An interesting thread, in light of the success-nonsuccess argument, and Russian state assumptions about the assault: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoodedCrow Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 The point was made to me that if you want someone’s property it is not smart to nuke it first. Razed cities are not that great either, I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: The only sour note in the unified front against Russia has been (the corrupt) FIFA, that has allowed the Russian team to continue qualifying for the World Cup, even though its opponents have said (Poland for starters) that they wouldn't play. If you add to that whatever Qatar is doing, I may just give this world cup a pass. How can they compete if they can’t fly to their games? And fuck FIFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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