Ukraine 31: Icarus Edition

[Werthead]

Ukraine has carried out a heavy missile strike on Sevastopol. Russian AA defences shot down a number of the missiles, but a Kilo-class submarine took a direct hit and is heavily damaged. A Ropucha-class landing vessel also took a direct hit and appears to have been set ablaze along its length. Doubtful if that will sail again for a long time, if ever.

[Corvinus85]

So is Elon now running for his Starship to move to Mars as nuclear war is about to happen because Ukraine struck a Russian naval base in Crimea?

[Derfel Cadarn]

36 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

So is Elon now running for his Starship to move to Mars as nuclear war is about to happen because Ukraine struck a Russian naval base in Crimea?

I’ll help him pack

[Werthead]

Ukraine has targeted and destroyed a large fixed AA battery in Yevpatoriya, Crimea. A low-flying UAV evaded air defences - they didn't even seem to fire - and blew up the battery with a single direct hit. There's also reports of a larger swarm drone attack that took out a S400 site elsewhere in Crimea.

Russia's 42nd Division has fallen back on the southern Bakhmut front, citing lack of artillery cover. A war blogger has said that over 800 Russian troops have gone AWOL in the nearby forests, and others are refusing to fight until they get artillery cover. Ukrainian tanks have been advancing unopposed in some areas there.

Ukraine estimates that Russian casualties now surpass 270,000 in number, with 600 killed or disabled in combat yesterday alone.

Edited September 14, 2023 by Werthead

[Wilbur]

When the M1 Abrams (finally) arrive in Ukraine next month, will they all be equipped with mine rollers and/or dozer blades?

For some reason, my cousin and I both think that this is the case, but I can't find any articles anywhere that actually state it explicitly.  Just things like the photo in this item from The Drive that show the rollers installed.

[Werthead]

Ah, the AA battery and the S-400 system were part of the same anti-air complex. That makes sense.

Various sources have confirmed that a Russian Su-27 which undertook an "unsafe weapons release" over the Black Sea in the vicinity of an RAF observation aircraft actually straight-up fired on it after getting a confused message from ground control. The second pilot apparently intervened to stop him firing again, but the first weapon failed to acquire lock. After furious behind-the-scenes negotiations, the US and UK agreed to accept a Russian cover story of a technical malfunction. It's unclear in return for what, but there has not been a similar interception of UK aircraft since (which are now all escorted by fighters).

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

21 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ah, the AA battery and the S-400 system were part of the same anti-air complex. That makes sense.

Various sources have confirmed that a Russian Su-27 which undertook an "unsafe weapons release" over the Black Sea in the vicinity of an RAF observation aircraft actually straight-up fired on it after getting a confused message from ground control. The second pilot apparently intervened to stop him firing again, but the first weapon failed to acquire lock. After furious behind-the-scenes negotiations, the US and UK agreed to accept a Russian cover story of a technical malfunction. It's unclear in return for what, but there has not been a similar interception of UK aircraft since (which are now all escorted by fighters).

When did this happen?

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

When did this happen?

29 September last year.

[Makk]

14 hours ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine has targeted and destroyed a large fixed AA battery in Yevpatoriya, Crimea. A low-flying UAV evaded air defences - they didn't even seem to fire - and blew up the battery with a single direct hit. There's also reports of a larger swarm drone attack that took out a S400 site elsewhere in Crimea.

This is apparently very big news. That system costs over US$500 million and was the main system of air defense in Crimea. It should significantly degrade their ability to intercept things. It's location was given away by a Russian tourist taking a selfie in front of it. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Apparently Kadyrov is in a coma. A few posters on twitter are reporting it, but this isn’t the first time he’s been allegedly at death’s door, so pinch of salt

 

[mormont]

'Suddenly deteriorated'.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 minutes ago, mormont said:

'Suddenly deteriorated'.

Polonium Tea will do that to folks…

 

 

[Maithanet]

As with anything Russia, you can immediately jump to speculation, because the quality of information is always so low. 

 Has he been poisoned or otherwise incapacitated by Russia?  Arguments for this would be that he's a relatively young man (46) with access to good doctors, so just falling into a coma is fairly unusual.  People falling ill under strange circumstances seems to happen kind of a lot in Putin's inner circle.  Perhaps they are hoping to replace him with someone more loyal to Putin and more willing to use Chechen troops in Ukraine.

Arguments against this is that Kadyrov has been fairly loyal to Putin, and pissing off the Chechens right now isn't in Putin's interest at all.  While perhaps he could be replaced with someone more to Putin's liking, there's always a risk that Putin's preferred successor either fails to take control or proves untrustworthy, in which case Putin would be worse off than before.  The last thing that Putin wants is to suddenly have another Chechen uprising on his hands.  The Chechens have been derided as "TikTok soldiers" in the Ukraine war, but when fighting to defend their homes they proved a huge problem for the Russian army in the 90s, in spite of a population less than 2 million. 

 

[Gorn]

He has a reputation for hard partying with every possible drug out there, and he's also a heavy drinker and gluttonous eater. Not surprising if it eventually caught up with him.

Also, the last thing that Putin would want right now is to disturb the status quo in Chechnya, for which he paid a very high price (in both money and lives) to achieve.

[Maithanet]

6 minutes ago, Gorn said:

Also, the last thing that Putin would want right now is to disturb the status quo in Chechnya, for which he paid a very high price (in both money and lives) to achieve.

Sort of.  The Chechens could absolutely be fighting harder in Ukraine, and I've no doubt that Putin wishes they would.  So the status quo isn't exactly the best case scenario for Putin here.  Does replacing Kadyrov with someone else carry significant risks?  Absolutely, I would go so far as to call it a stupid move.  But there is potential upside there, and Putin has made a lot of stupid moves in the past 20 months. 

[mormont]

Also, Putin is not the only person in Russia capable of ordering a hit on Kadyrov.

[Derfel Cadarn]

He’s only 46??? I’m only two years younger…

[Wilbur]

Well, at least Kadyrov has some top physicians ready to provide...wait, he buried his personal doctor alive last November?

Well, never mind.

[Werthead]

Interesting reporting from the Russian side that Ukraine's mine-clearing tactics are now highly effective, making use of cluster munitions to detonate multiple mines across a contained area, using infrared cameras to identify still-active mines and showing extreme fortitude in clearing out the last mines by hand under fire. Artillery suppression of Russian positions is continuing and their counter-battery fire remains ineffective. Recent advances by the Ukrainians have seen the loss of pre-zoned Russian artillery points and areas their helicopters had pre-targeted, putting their helicopters in range of advancing Ukrainian MANPADS without warning. The highly-effective Russian helicopter fire we saw at the start of the counter-offensive has largely dissipated, although some signs they may be retraining on secondary and tertiary lines. However, they have not had as much time to reinforce these lines, so they remain more vulnerable.

Reports that the Russian 72nd Motorised Brigade has been completely eliminated. The unit was fighting in Andriyivka, near Bakhmut, and was completely encircled by Ukrainian forces of the 3rd Storm Brigade. It ceased to function as a fighting unit and its surviving personnel were captured. 

Some indications that ATACMs have now been signed off but the White House will not confirm, and we won't know they've been shipped until targets start being hit. Also rumours that the White House has been finally convinced to "allow" Ukraine to retake Crimea and to do so will not carry significant escalatory risks with Russia. The US may now believe that Crimea being retaken would likely trigger the collapse of Putin's regime, or allow for peace talks with real Russian compromises possible. This has (again, allegedly), followed months of a back-channel diplomatic effort with Russian officials to try to reach a possible logical compromise that would satisfying Ukraine (although a lot of ideas, like Russia keeping Crimea in return for a full retreat from the land corridor, did not satisfy Kyiv). These channels have either dried up, or the people they are talking to do not include Putin himself any more.

Turkey has suspended all cooperation with Russia over a gas hub project on Turkish soil, apparently a response to Putin refusing to resume the grain deal. Turkey remains open to negotiations on both fronts when the Russians are.

Something approaching a riot in Tyumen, Siberia, not far from the Kazakh border, where Russian nationalists marched in opposition to a demonstration by non-ethnic Russians fed up with their treatment (particularly Armenians).

Some indications that a third ship, the missile carrier Samum, was partially damaged in the attack on Sevastopol. Unlike the two other two, she was not sunk and will probably return to duty, but will need repairs first.

What appears to be a militia has seized control of the Dulisima oil company in Irkutsk, Siberia (near the Mongolian border). Unclear what happened, if this was state-sanctioned or some local beef. They showed up, took over, and told the workers they now work for them (or got them to leave).

Edited September 16, 2023 by Werthead

[JGP]

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Also rumours that the White House has been finally convinced to "allow" Ukraine to retake Crimea and to do so will not carry significant escalatory risks with Russia.

[sad laugh]