Israel - Hamas War V

[Craving Peaches]

Quote

Doctors Without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontieres, or MSF) has warned that thousands of wounded people in northern Gaza “are in serious danger of dying in the next few hours because it’s becoming impossible to get medical attention”.

Source: Al Jazeera

Aid must get through soon or the number of dead is going to drastically increase.

[Ran]

41 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Attacking Gazans for not dying in large numbers trying to remove Hamas?

Don't quote something I wrote and ignore everything else around it. I explicitly denied suggesting such a thing. The discussion sprang out of the idea that maybe Gazans throwing out Hamas would be "better", but innocent people would still die in a civil war in Gaza, which seems of the greatest concern to Relic and others. This then led people to question even the possibility of anti-Hamas resistance, and I just pointed out the fundamental disingenuousness of suggesting that it was literally impossible for people who have spent most of their lives fighting Israel to be incapable of fighting Hamas. There were images yesterday of protestors with rocks and slings going up against IDF soldiers with the most modern possible equipment. 

But people have many reasons why they don't rise up against an unelected jihadist regime. Fear, lack of means, etc. And, yes, some of them are certainly just okay with them. So it goes. But as I also said, I think most Gazans are not happy with what Hamas has done in their name, and are not happy to be suffering because these unelected jihadists launched a war against Israel. The sooner Hamas is removed from power, the better it will be for the people of Gaza.

41 minutes ago, Padraig said:

  It is nearly always used as a way to condemn the civilians of Gaza and to implicitly endorse any suffering they experience. 

I am not responsible for what other people say or mean. I'm responsible for what I say and mean.

If you want to ignore everything else I posted around the topic to make a straw man, that's your responsibility, but it really has nothing to do with me.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Ran

[Craving Peaches]

Quote

Palestinian Red Crescent says Israel orders hospital evacuation

The Palestinian Red Crescent says that Israeli forces have issued an evacuation order to Al-Quds hospital in Gaza.

The hospital is currently home to over 400 patients and 12,000 displaced civilians, according to the Red Crescent.

In a post on X, the humanitarian organisation called on the "international community to act urgently, averting another catastrophe like Al-Ahli Hospital" - in reference to the explosion at the Baptist hospital for which the Palestinian blame Israel, but Israelis presented evidence which it said showed was caused by a rocket fired from inside Gaza.

Israel Gaza live news: Israeli media say two US hostages released by Hamas - BBC News

Quote

Israeli military told director of Al-Quds Hospital to evacuate or bear consequences

Now not all departments of the Al-Quds Hospital in Gaza City are working because the lack of electricity, but the hospital certainly has more than 12,000 people sheltering there, especially those people who have had their homes targeted.

Now I got a call from Dr Bashar Murad, who is the director of Al-Quds Hospital, and he told me exactly that he got a call from the Israeli army telling him to instantly evacuate the hospital and everyone in it to the southern Strip – that’s to Khan Younis.

He said that this is because the army is about to conduct a military operation in that area.

Doctor Murad told me, ‘I replied to that person from the Israeli army, I said, ‘If you want us to evacuate, please provide us with the necessary buses and transportation means so that we can evacuate over 12,000 people and patients to the south and make a place for us.”

He told me that the person speaking to him from the Israeli army started shouting and he told him you can bear the consequences if you do not evacuate and hung up.

Israel-Gaza war live: Hamas releases two US captives, spokesman says | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera

I really hope nothing bad happens to this hospital...

Edited October 20, 2023 by Craving Peaches

[Ran]

To that end, on the opinion of Gazans on Hamas, this documentary series and accompanying monograph is insightful.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Ran

[Werthead]

Hamas has apparently reiterated a deal where they will release all civilian hostages in return for an immediate ceasefire. Israel does not seem minded to take that deal, but I wonder if their allies will try to pressure them diplomatically. Sunak's diplomatic tour of the Middle-East has garnered multiple condemnations of Hamas from Arab countries and both Sunak and Biden have been pressing hard on civilian aid access for Gaza (and there's some signs the Americans are getting irritated that the border post was not reopened today as planned). Macron will apparently do his own round of the region in the coming days.

There's some signs that the Israeli ground offensive could start within 48-72 hours, but Israeli allies might now be coming round to the idea of a negotiated ceasefire with no need for a ground invasion. There are indications that Hamas has taken very heavy losses (at the cost of civilian lives), with a large chunk of their local Gaza leadership wiped out, the people who planned the invasion being killed, almost everyone who took part in it being killed and so on.

I suspect Israel will not be minded to take that deal and will attack on the ground, but possibly more limited than original ideas. They have said today they will not reoccupy the Strip. More debatably, they have also said that Israel will not bear any responsibility for the Gaza Strip at all after the operation concludes, possibly an indication that they will no longer supply infrastructure to the Strip. Either Egypt or the international community would have to resupply Gaza, or Gaza would have to be evacuated (and Egypt has already said they cannot be evacuated to their territory).

[kissdbyfire]

12 minutes ago, Werthead said:

There's some signs that the Israeli ground offensive could start within 48-72 hours, but Israeli allies might now be coming round to the idea of a negotiated ceasefire with no need for a ground invasion. There are indications that Hamas has taken very heavy losses (at the cost of civilian lives), with a large chunk of their local Gaza leadership wiped out, the people who planned the invasion being killed, almost everyone who took part in it being killed and so on.

Assuming the reports that many/most hostages are still alive, and considering the bolded above… can someone please explain to me like I’m 5 yrs old why agreeing to a ceasefire and getting the hostages back would be a bad option? How isn’t it considered a huge Israeli win to wipe out Hamas in Gaza almost entirely, bring the hostages home, AND save the lives of IDF troops that would go into Gaza? 

I can’t even imagine the pain of the families and friends of these hostages, and I hope the brains of the powerful win over their livers and every hostage gets to go home. 

[Werthead]

12 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Assuming the reports that many/most hostages are still alive, and considering the bolded above… can someone please explain to me like I’m 5 yrs old why agreeing to a ceasefire and getting the hostages back would be a bad option? How isn’t it considered a huge Israeli win to wipe out Hamas in Gaza almost entirely, bring the hostages home, AND save the lives of IDF troops that would go into Gaza? 

I can’t even imagine the pain of the families and friends of these hostages, and I hope the brains of the powerful win over their livers and every hostage gets to go home. 

Hamas has an estimated 10,000 hardcore members and 20,000-30,000 part-time members. Not all of them are in Gaza, but it's assumed the majority are. So the Israeli position would be that even if every Palestinian they'd killed (planned or inadvertent) was a member of Hamas, they still would not have scratched the surface. And Hamas cannot be allowed to remain extant in Gaza, or in control of Gaza, otherwise this exact thing would happen again, in six months or six years. So Hamas has to be rooted out and destroyed.

Exactly how you accomplish that with a ground invasion, especially one that will presumably only take part in the upper half of the strip, is very unclear.

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Hamas has an estimated 10,000 hardcore members and 20,000-30,000 part-time members. Not all of them are in Gaza, but it's assumed the majority are. So the Israeli position would be that even if every Palestinian they'd killed (planned or inadvertent) was a member of Hamas, they still would not have scratched the surface. And Hamas cannot be allowed to remain extant in Gaza, or in control of Gaza, otherwise this exact thing would happen again, in six months or six years. So Hamas has to be rooted out and destroyed.

Exactly how you accomplish that with a ground invasion, especially one that will presumably only take part in the upper half of the strip, is very unclear.

Thank you. I was obviously very wrong when I said Hamas in Gaza had been wiped out almost entirely. And I agree that they can’t be allowed to continue to exist. But as per your previous post, Hamas has taken heavy losses and a good chunk of their leadership in Gaza has been wiped out. From what I understand, the deal they’re offering is the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire, right? So I still don’t see how that can’t be taken as a huge win for the reasons I mentioned before. 
 

I mean, the families and friends of the hostages know of this deal, same as the whole world at this point. My heart breaks for them, knowing their loved ones may still be alive, there’s a way of getting them back - w/ no real downside that I can see - and it might just be impossible because… reasons I don’t understand. 

[Maithanet]

I'm not sure there's any trust between the Israeli government and Hamas.  There is a good chance that they want a ceasefire, but have no intention of handing over the hostages.  In which case they would get a temporary respite in exchange for nothing. 

[Kalbear]

15 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Hamas has an estimated 10,000 hardcore members and 20,000-30,000 part-time members. Not all of them are in Gaza, but it's assumed the majority are. So the Israeli position would be that even if every Palestinian they'd killed (planned or inadvertent) was a member of Hamas, they still would not have scratched the surface. And Hamas cannot be allowed to remain extant in Gaza, or in control of Gaza, otherwise this exact thing would happen again, in six months or six years. So Hamas has to be rooted out and destroyed.

Exactly how you accomplish that with a ground invasion, especially one that will presumably only take part in the upper half of the strip, is very unclear.

I'm going to take my clue from their phrasing. And looking it up Reuters has a good projection of what will likely happen. I think the Israeli goal is going to be to wipe out all the tunnel network they can, destroy any other types of infrastructure for weapon making they can, kill a lot of Hamas at the cost of even more Gazans, and then figure out a way to declare it good and then leave. They will likely also discontinue any supplying of Gaza after that and permanently shut the Gaza borders with Israel with significantly more than just fences. 

I'm not particularly optimistic about that as a useful thing to do. The tunnels are probably the biggest 'win' they'll be able to take in that in terms of reducing Hamas effectiveness, but if you're not placing your own government and agencies in place of Hamas they'll just come back again - and people will accept them again - because there is no other viable alternative. It may reduce the ability for Hamas to do attacks for a few years but it will likely do very little else. And unless Israel is willing to keep bombing and invading Gaza every time they detect seismic activity or any signs of tunneling it'll just happen again. 

I do think taking out the tunnels is the right choice. It is going to be absolutely hell for the IDF to do so but it is the single most important resource Hamas has for fighting. I also think that you absolutely need to have an ally in the area that will take over after peacetime in administering the area, and reinforce that with soldiers. In a perfect world that'd be someone like Egypt or Jordan stepping in but that is effective political suicide for those countries. Fatah would likewise never do it. Israel could do it but that puts their troops in peril all the time, and would be a far more dangerous counterinsurgency op than Iraq or Afghanistan. 

[Kalbear]

13 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Thank you. I was obviously very wrong when I said Hamas in Gaza had been wiped out almost entirely. And I agree that they can’t be allowed to continue to exist. But as per your previous post, Hamas has taken heavy losses and a good chunk of their leadership in Gaza has been wiped out. From what I understand, the deal they’re offering is the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire, right? So I still don’t see how that can’t be taken as a huge win for the reasons I mentioned before. 

Because Hamas still exists and the general goals of the war from the Israeli side have not been met. The senior leadership of Hamas, most of its infrastructure and upper levels, and most of their forces are still around. Their capability to fire rockets hasn't been particularly diminished. Their governance of Gaza hasn't been stopped. 

I get the desire to free the hostages (assuming that can be reasonably relied on, which is an entirely different statement) but I suspect Israel's thinking is that a ceasefire doesn't benefit them at all right now and only gives Hamas more time to make the tunnels more deadly, more dangerous, and make the ground invasion that much harder. 

 

[Tears of Lys]

Interesting that Hamas choses two Amercan hostages to release.  In fact, Anderson Cooper just asked it.  

Maybe all the protests at college campuses are giving them hope to pry Israel from the USA's support.

[Kalbear]

And finally - for every single person who shares a link on X here, I want to say this - but especially @Craving Peaches. 

Just stop. 

Every time you share you are giving X more money, more credit, and more reach. Every time you do that you are showing that the people on the site who are still using it should stay there because they're getting clicks. If you want it to change, you need to stop enabling it. It is actively causing massive harm to our world, right now, and sharing things from it are contributing to that harm. 

If you find something that you like on it don't share the tweet; share the link that the tweet goes to, and take any forwarding/referer stuff out of the URI. 

Per research, 74% of the top 250 misinformation spreaders are 'verified' users - this is something that X has specifically done to make it easier. While also removing the New York Times' verification. 

[Tears of Lys]

Never got into Twitter in any of its iterations.  And honestly, I haven't liked Facebook much either.

 

 

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

And finally - for every single person who shares a link on X here, I want to say this - but especially @Craving Peaches. 

Just stop. 

I mean, it was one tweet from Amnesty, but okay? If you really don't want it I won't...

Edit: The Offending Link has been removed and replaced with a link to the Amnesty Website.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Craving Peaches

[Bael's Bastard]

55 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Assuming the reports that many/most hostages are still alive, and considering the bolded above… can someone please explain to me like I’m 5 yrs old why agreeing to a ceasefire and getting the hostages back would be a bad option? How isn’t it considered a huge Israeli win to wipe out Hamas in Gaza almost entirely, bring the hostages home, AND save the lives of IDF troops that would go into Gaza? 

I can’t even imagine the pain of the families and friends of these hostages, and I hope the brains of the powerful win over their livers and every hostage gets to go home. 

Even if they are being truthful, "civilian" hostages is a major qualifier.

[Clueless Northman]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

So the Israeli position would be that even if every Palestinian they'd killed (planned or inadvertent) was a member of Hamas, they still would not have scratched the surface. And Hamas cannot be allowed to remain extant in Gaza, or in control of Gaza, otherwise this exact thing would happen again, in six months or six years. So Hamas has to be rooted out and destroyed.

Well, this applied to "far-right / neo-nazi elements" was one of the key rationales for Russia to invade Ukraine.

[Conflicting Thought]

are we cool with ethnostates now?

[SeanF]

9 minutes ago, Conflicting Thought said:

are we cool with ethnostates now?

Ethnostates may sometimes be the least bad option, eg Poland after 1945.

Edited October 20, 2023 by SeanF

[Ran]

9 minutes ago, Conflicting Thought said:

are we cool with ethnostates now?

I get confused with this question, because that's what Palestinians want.