Jace, Extat Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) Maybe, but it seems to me that they're gonna need that 400,000 either way. Edited January 31 by Jace, Extat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Also, the elite Russia tank division did something it didn't do for two years - win an actual goal. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/30/russias-1st-guards-tank-army-has-won-its-first-battle-in-two-years-by-advancing-a-mile-and-capturing-a-half-dozen-buildings/?sh=5a2154fc47b7 Mostly this is about Russia having way more firepower via artillery than Ukraine - between the inaccurate but numerous North Korean ammo the Russians have received and Ukraine lacking ammo (they were using up to a million shells a day - they're now using 2000) it's quite the disparity in fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 18 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Also, the elite Russia tank division did something it didn't do for two years - win an actual goal. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/30/russias-1st-guards-tank-army-has-won-its-first-battle-in-two-years-by-advancing-a-mile-and-capturing-a-half-dozen-buildings/?sh=5a2154fc47b7 Mostly this is about Russia having way more firepower via artillery than Ukraine - between the inaccurate but numerous North Korean ammo the Russians have received and Ukraine lacking ammo (they were using up to a million shells a day - they're now using 2000) it's quite the disparity in fires. I don't think anyone was firing a million shells a day, but they were certainly firing up to 10,000 and, in some insane engagements, Russia was allegedly firing around 20,000 during the advance on the twin cities in the summer of 2022 (although that was utterly unsustainable, and they burned through a staggering amount of their stocks to do so). I think Ukraine peaked around 10,000 during several key engagements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Ukraine has hit Belbek Military Airport, Sevastopol, in Crimea with at least two and possibly three Storm Shadow or SCALP missiles. Looks like a lot of damage. Also an additional drone strike on another fuel depot in St. Petersburg, despite Russia moving AA assets to try to protect the city. Orban is folding on his opposition to the EU funding deal. Apparently he was nervous about Hungary's participation rights in the EU being suspended, so he's trying to make some weird adjustments (like getting the budget for aid to Ukraine to be renewed annually rather than in four-year blocks) but it doesn't look like those are starters. The deal should go through in the coming days. Some Russian military bloggers are surprisingly downbeat about Avdiivka, despite widespread expectations that the town will fall in the coming weeks. Although they note Russian successes in the south, they also note that all of the units engaged at Avdiivka are exhausted, have been in constant combat for three months or more without rotation and the Ukrainians have managed to rotate some units in and out, so they are facing some fresher units. Ukraine is running low on artillery ammunition but they seem to have more drones than Russia does: one building was finally taken by Russian forces after a gruelling battle only for it to be hit by 17 explosive-carrying drones in rapid succession, killing several troops (allow for some hyperbole there). Jace, Extat, wiedzma and Erik of Hazelfield 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 34 minutes ago, Werthead said: I don't think anyone was firing a million shells a day, but they were certainly firing up to 10,000 and, in some insane engagements, Russia was allegedly firing around 20,000 during the advance on the twin cities in the summer of 2022 (although that was utterly unsustainable, and they burned through a staggering amount of their stocks to do so). I think Ukraine peaked around 10,000 during several key engagements. Ah, you're right, I misread - they burned through a million shells that were donated by the EU and US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 hours ago, Kalbear said: Per reports Zelensky is dismissing his top general Zaluzhny. No reported reasons why, and he declined to give his resignation when asked. https://journa.host/@timkmak/111851237525754438 4 hours ago, Jace, Extat said: Snap guess: Zelensky wants another offensive. The General knows better. Better guess is political powerplay. Zaluzhny is incredibly popular, pretty much the only public figure that'd have a chance against Zelenskyy in an election. Opposition parties (yes, there's a political opposition that is not in bed with Russia) have thus floated the idea of him running after the war. Zelenskyy's political apparatus is less than thrilled by that prospect. Thus there have been reports for months now about growing tensions between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 You probably know more about it than me. It just seems obvious that Zelenskyy has staked his political, historical, character as the reclaimer of Ukraine. That just has certain attachments implied - namely, ejecting the Russians. And I just don't know how you do that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 EU approves €50B Ukraine aid as Viktor Orbán folds The deal on Ukraine aid comes after a small group of leaders persuaded Hungary’s PM to drop his veto on the funding package. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-gets-eu-aid-as-orban-folds/ Quote European Union leaders on Thursday reached a deal to provide €50 billion in aid to Ukraine — and they were in unanimous agreement after some leaders persuaded the sole holdout, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, to drop his veto. “All 27 leaders agreed on an additional €50 billion support package for Ukraine within the EU budget,” European Council President Charles Michel wrote on X, a few minutes after the formal start of the Council meeting on Thursday. “This locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine,” he added. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was “grateful” to Charles Michel and EU leaders for establishing the €50 billion Ukraine Facility. “It is very important that the decision was made by all 27 leaders, which once again proves strong EU unity,” Zelenskyy tweeted. “Continued EU financial support for Ukraine will strengthen long-term economic and financial stability, which is no less important than military assistance and sanctions pressure on Russia,” he added. Padraig, Which Tyler, SeanF and 5 others 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 23 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: Better guess is political powerplay. That sounds like internet (perhaps Russian) manufactured nonsense. Given Ukraine could be fighting this war for years, I really doubt Zelensky is thinking about post war elections. He will want the army to be lead by the person he believes can win them the war. It has been widely reported that they have fallen out since the failure of the summer offensive and they have publicly clashed a few times since then about the state of the war. You really don't have to go searching for "why" beyond that. Rightly or wrongly, Zelensky has lost faith in Zaluzhny. The EU funding is positive at least, although it was clear a month ago that some sort of package would be agreed. The US aid has always looked much more perilous. Probably more so now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) Ukraine has destroyed a Tarantul-class missile corvette off the coast of Crimea. This was a big hit, and will likely continue to keep Russian ships clear of the western Black Sea. Russia launched a significant mechanised attack south of Novomykhailivka, but it never really got close to the Ukrainian lines. Ukrainian drones tracked the column and destroyed it with FPV munitions, artillery and ATGM fire. Thirteen vehicles reported destroyed. Some Russian channels already describing this as a huge disaster. Fighting on the Krynky front still quite fierce. Russian resupply and movement has been compromised by a new Ukrainian tactic, deploying high-yield mines dropped by drones behind their lines. One Russian source is claiming a second crossing has been successful, south-west of the existing one, and Ukraine has established a second foothold. No confirmation yet. Apparently a Russian artillery shortage on the Avdiivka front, which seems surprising. Russian offensives in the last couple of days has proceeded without artillery cover, which have gone as well as you'd expect. Some Russian soldiers furious and refusing to advance until artillery cover resumes. One Russian unit apparently driven back with heavy losses by Ukrainian artillery and infantry with no answer from the Russian guns. Interesting if that's a systemic issue or a short-term supply problem. Russian glide bombs meant for Avdiivka seem to be falling short of the front, sometimes landing well behind the lines and hitting Russian-controlled territory. Ukrainian military intelligence believes that they have been rattled by recent aircraft losses so are dropping their bombs from too great a distance to be effective. Given the importance of glide bombs on the Avdiivka and Krynky fronts to make up for a shortage of drones and apparently now artillery (however temporary that proves to be), that's not ideal for the Russians. The Ukrainians seem to be making excellent use of the Swedish Archer self-propelled artillery gun, with its ability to move fast, target Russian hardpoints and artillery at range and then scoot off quickly being highly praised. Russian gasoline exports have dropped by 37% in the first month of 2024, blamed on Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries. Meanwhile, the Russians have deployed the M-46 cannon, a 130mm piece produced from 1946 to 1950, and the ammunition for which is no longer manufactured in Russia. North Korea does have some ammunition for it, which is probably why they decided to pull it out. France and Britain are pushing hard for formal candidate status for Ukraine to join NATO to be extended; the US and Germany are hesitant, but other European NATO members are pretty firm that they want this to happen. Interesting to see what happens there. Apparently GLSDB ammunition is expected to finally be deployed in Ukraine in the near future after a year of delays. These are rocket-assisted artillery weapons that can be fired from the air or from HIMARS launchers. In the latter case, they have a range of over 150km. Edited February 2 by Werthead Jace, Extat, Maithanet, Ser Scot A Ellison and 5 others 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 18 hours ago, Werthead said: Ukraine has destroyed a Tarantul-class missile corvette off the coast of Crimea. This was a big hit, and will likely continue to keep Russian ships clear of the western Black Sea. Russia launched a significant mechanised attack south of Novomykhailivka, but it never really got close to the Ukrainian lines. Ukrainian drones tracked the column and destroyed it with FPV munitions, artillery and ATGM fire. Thirteen vehicles reported destroyed. Some Russian channels already describing this as a huge disaster. Fighting on the Krynky front still quite fierce. Russian resupply and movement has been compromised by a new Ukrainian tactic, deploying high-yield mines dropped by drones behind their lines. One Russian source is claiming a second crossing has been successful, south-west of the existing one, and Ukraine has established a second foothold. No confirmation yet. Apparently a Russian artillery shortage on the Avdiivka front, which seems surprising. Russian offensives in the last couple of days has proceeded without artillery cover, which have gone as well as you'd expect. Some Russian soldiers furious and refusing to advance until artillery cover resumes. One Russian unit apparently driven back with heavy losses by Ukrainian artillery and infantry with no answer from the Russian guns. Interesting if that's a systemic issue or a short-term supply problem. Russian glide bombs meant for Avdiivka seem to be falling short of the front, sometimes landing well behind the lines and hitting Russian-controlled territory. Ukrainian military intelligence believes that they have been rattled by recent aircraft losses so are dropping their bombs from too great a distance to be effective. Given the importance of glide bombs on the Avdiivka and Krynky fronts to make up for a shortage of drones and apparently now artillery (however temporary that proves to be), that's not ideal for the Russians. The Ukrainians seem to be making excellent use of the Swedish Archer self-propelled artillery gun, with its ability to move fast, target Russian hardpoints and artillery at range and then scoot off quickly being highly praised. Russian gasoline exports have dropped by 37% in the first month of 2024, blamed on Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries. Meanwhile, the Russians have deployed the M-46 cannon, a 130mm piece produced from 1946 to 1950, and the ammunition for which is no longer manufactured in Russia. North Korea does have some ammunition for it, which is probably why they decided to pull it out. France and Britain are pushing hard for formal candidate status for Ukraine to join NATO to be extended; the US and Germany are hesitant, but other European NATO members are pretty firm that they want this to happen. Interesting to see what happens there. Apparently GLSDB ammunition is expected to finally be deployed in Ukraine in the near future after a year of delays. These are rocket-assisted artillery weapons that can be fired from the air or from HIMARS launchers. In the latter case, they have a range of over 150km. I’m still amazed at the Russians’ willingness to waste lives and equipment on an entirely pointless war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 9 hours ago, SeanF said: I’m still amazed at the Russians’ willingness to waste lives and equipment on an entirely pointless war. It has a massive point to Russia, and certainly putin. I still can't believe this is so poorly understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Kalbear said: It has a massive point to Russia, and certainly putin. I still can't believe this is so poorly understood. I think the issue isn't that Putin isn't completely ruthless who would see five million Russians dead to win in Ukraine, as he absolutely is, it's more that he doesn't seem to realise that he needs to preserve the lives of troops so they can fight again later on, especially if he is really considering an attack on the Baltic States in 3-7 years time. At the moment Russian casualties are such that they cannot be replaced easily, and given Russia's demographic trajectory, slaughtering tens of thousands of your fit young men and crippling tens of thousands more is not a good idea. This isn't relying on Putin or Russia developing a sudden sense of compassion, but more a simple sense of practical expediency: grinding down Ukraine only works if Russia balances its loss ratio against Ukraine's in a way that make sense. They looked like they learned that lesson last summer and into the autumn, when the balance of Russian losses to Ukrainian losses fell well into the window that Russia can easily sustain indefinitely, having spent the eighteen months before than well outside (and catastrophically outside it at several points). Ukraine looked like it could get into real trouble at that point if Russia could sustain that for half a year or more. But in the last few months they've gone back to losses being well outside that window and that makes life a lot easier for Ukraine. Putin's calculus has been to avoid a further mobilisation (due to the unknown political damage that would cause, after the problems last time), to avoid drawing more men out of industry where they are needed to keep the war machine working at the back end, and to maintain the pressure on Ukraine through sustainable military offensives until Ukraine falters somewhere and Russia can try to take the whole country, or until Ukraine is exhausted and forced to negotiate on Russia's terms. There's also the fact that Russia has exhausted certain resources and can't tap them again (Russia has probably got all the manpower it can out of the prison system). All of these things should be conducive to Russia carrying out the war with a degree of strategic and tactical common sense to ensure the greater chances of victory. As it stands they are not doing that. In fact, there are some signs that they may have turned a probable victory into Avdiivka into a potential reversal, if the tendencies of the last few days keep up. Arakasi, Ser Reptitious, Hmmm and 1 other 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Kalbear said: It has a massive point to Russia, and certainly putin. I still can't believe this is so poorly understood. Russian neo-imperialism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 17 minutes ago, Werthead said: All of these things should be conducive to Russia carrying out the war with a degree of strategic and tactical common sense to ensure the greater chances of victory. As it stands they are not doing that. In fact, there are some signs that they may have turned a probable victory into Avdiivka into a potential reversal, if the tendencies of the last few days keep up. To be clear I don't have a problem with criticizing how Russia has carried out the war - there's LOTS to criticize there. The strategic idea that the Western world wouldn't help Ukraine (especially not in time) or Ukraine would just roll over and die was an obvious flaw, the absurd reliance on armor that was poorly maintained and had little air or artillery support was stupid, the corruption and logistic issues abounded, etc. Nor are more recent decisions particularly good, though I think you might be selling short the notion of putting on more pressure against Ukraine while they are desperately low on munitions and the ability to replace things. No, what I'm saying is the idea that Russia didn't have a goal with this war or that they didn't have a reason to do this. Russia -at least Putin - had stated quite plainly his goals around Ukraine and why he felt war was necessary and has been necessary since 2014. You may fervently disagree with that viewpoint but it is incredibly sincerely felt and is remarkably consistent with the rest of Russia's goals. Whether those goals are achievable is very much up for debate, and whether or not the goals were going to be successful based on how Russia went about them and what they assumed (Ukrainian support + Western weakness) is another debate, but the actual goals and point of the war are really, really clear and obvious. I think there's a lot of evidence that Russia still has not adapted well strategically to the new world and that their longer-term goals may not be obtainable with their shorter term choices, but they have a plan, a reason for that plan and justification for that plan. Not understanding that means you'll likely also not understand or believe when he threatens to attack in the future and will be surprised, again, when he does so. Jace, Extat and horangi 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 (edited) Interesting estimates of how Russian artillery systems are faring after two years of conflict. The answer: very much not good. Russia seems to have lost a third of its self-propelled guns and over half of its towed artillery systems. How much new stuff has been produced in the meantime to offset this is debatable, and of course, the source needs closer scrutiny. It appears the Ukrainian effort last year on targeting and destroying Russian artillery systems - rendering the question of how many crappy shells they can buy in from North Korea moot - has been highly successful. A Volgograd oil facility was attacked by a Ukrainian drone, but fortunately (for the Russians), their AA systems spotted it before it could attack. Unfortunately, for reasons unknown, they waited until it was too close, so the falling drone wreckage hit the facility and cause a substantial explosion. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities have been incredibly successful, resulting in a near-40% drop in exports in January 2024, sparking major alarm in the oil sector if this was to continue, which it appears it will. Highly unconfirmed claims that the Russian shell shortage on the Avdiivka front may have been caused by HIMARS and drone targeting of their shell supply dumps. If the former, this would only be possible with GLSDB, which has not been confirmed as operational yet in the theatre. 2 hours ago, Kalbear said: To be clear I don't have a problem with criticizing how Russia has carried out the war - there's LOTS to criticize there. The strategic idea that the Western world wouldn't help Ukraine (especially not in time) or Ukraine would just roll over and die was an obvious flaw, the absurd reliance on armor that was poorly maintained and had little air or artillery support was stupid, the corruption and logistic issues abounded, etc. Nor are more recent decisions particularly good, though I think you might be selling short the notion of putting on more pressure against Ukraine while they are desperately low on munitions and the ability to replace things. Fortunately - and people seem divided on why this is so and how bad it is - but Russia seems to also be falling low on munitions. On paper they shouldn't be, but the Russian shell expenditure on the Avdiivka and Krynky fronts seem to have fallen to about one-third their recent highs, allowing some minor Ukrainian advances on both fronts. That may just be temporary, or a bigger problem with the North Korean shell deliveries or an intersection with drone strikes on shell and munitions dumps. Also, Ukraine is currently enjoying what appears to be an advantage in drone production. Ukraine is deploying small and medium drones in vast numbers, with Ukrainian civilians assembling lighter drones as flatpacks through the post before sending them onto the front. In some cases, Ukraine had such a huge number of drones and nothing to do with them, so were sending them after individual Russian soldiers around Avdiivka (culminating in the scene of using seven drones to blow up one room, even though there only three or four Russian soldiers in there). This has also occurred simultaneously with the advent of the Baba Yaga drone, which is causing a serious case of Russian forces shitting themselves. The BY drone apparently uses a new communication and control system that the Russians have not figured out how to jam, and can apparently act as both a carrier for smaller drones and also drop serious explosive warheads and mines powerful enough to take out MBTs. This advantage is likely temporary, but for the time being Ukraine is clearly winning the drone war. (ETA: Ukraine has apparently fielded a new drone type that can drop PG-7VL HEAT grenades onto targets from above, which should be able to almost obliterate anything in the Russian inventory at relatively close range). Several Russian milbloggers warning of a renewed Ukrainian push on the Zaporizhzhia front. They believe that Ukraine did not engage half or more of their offensive forces in the region last year and these forces could resume the attack whilst Russian efforts are focused on Avdiivka. However, even the most rabidly pro-Ukrainian sources seem to think this is improbable: Ukraine does not have the shell stockpiles available, and will likely not resume an attack in that sector until the have more reliable means of clearing the mines. Also, the Ukrainians practised rotation during that offensive, so a lot of the troops in that sector have seen combat and need refreshing before they can even think of attacking again. Also, attacking just before the mud season would seem unwise. Meanwhile, the EU is getting better at some stuff: Edited February 4 by Werthead Hmmm, Corvinus85, Jace, Extat and 2 others 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Better footage of the crippling defeat at Novomykhailivka. The Russians started by crashing two tanks into one another before hitting a wall of drones and artillery. This is being described by the Russians as their most disastrous and costly single attack since the Vuhledar traffic jam massacre. DireWolfSpirit, Maithanet and Jace, Extat 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derfel Cadarn Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 hours ago, Werthead said: I think the issue isn't that Putin isn't completely ruthless who would see five million Russians dead to win in Ukraine, as he absolutely is, it's more that he doesn't seem to realise that he needs to preserve the lives of troops so they can fight again later on, especially if he is really considering an attack on the Baltic States in 3-7 years time. At the moment Russian casualties are such that they cannot be replaced easily, and given Russia's demographic trajectory, slaughtering tens of thousands of your fit young men and crippling tens of thousands more is not a good idea. This isn't relying on Putin or Russia developing a sudden sense of compassion, but more a simple sense of practical expediency: grinding down Ukraine only works if Russia balances its loss ratio against Ukraine's in a way that make sense. They looked like they learned that lesson last summer and into the autumn, when the balance of Russian losses to Ukrainian losses fell well into the window that Russia can easily sustain indefinitely, having spent the eighteen months before than well outside (and catastrophically outside it at several points). Ukraine looked like it could get into real trouble at that point if Russia could sustain that for half a year or more. But in the last few months they've gone back to losses being well outside that window and that makes life a lot easier for Ukraine. Putin's calculus has been to avoid a further mobilisation (due to the unknown political damage that would cause, after the problems last time), to avoid drawing more men out of industry where they are needed to keep the war machine working at the back end, and to maintain the pressure on Ukraine through sustainable military offensives until Ukraine falters somewhere and Russia can try to take the whole country, or until Ukraine is exhausted and forced to negotiate on Russia's terms. There's also the fact that Russia has exhausted certain resources and can't tap them again (Russia has probably got all the manpower it can out of the prison system). All of these things should be conducive to Russia carrying out the war with a degree of strategic and tactical common sense to ensure the greater chances of victory. As it stands they are not doing that. In fact, there are some signs that they may have turned a probable victory into Avdiivka into a potential reversal, if the tendencies of the last few days keep up. If Russia takes Ukraine, it may well be mobilised Ukrainians he sends into the baltic states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Not if he's killed most of them in taking Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12 hours ago, Kalbear said: It has a massive point to Russia, and certainly putin. I still can't believe this is so poorly understood. Oh, I’m aware that Putin and his people are completely indifferent to human suffering. It’s just that to me - looking at it in realpolitikal terms - it’s massive cost for minor gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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