Israel - Hamas War XII

[Hmmm]

A few days old, but I didn't see these news referenced here yet. Haaretz reports that most regimes in the region secretly support Israel's war against Hamas, though they do not say so publicly in order to not piss off their populations. Iran being an exception of course. To some extent Qatar as well. 

Quote

Publicly, some of them (like Egypt and Jordan) are falling in line with public opinion in their countries and condemning the civilian deaths caused by Israel’s military response. But behind the scenes, almost every leader in the region, including in most of the Gulf states, is urging Israel to end the war only after Hamas is defeated, since they view the organization as a dangerous domestic enemy.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-30/ty-article/.premium/as-the-truce-with-hamas-progresses-decision-time-for-israel-approaches/0000018c-1ce6-da36-a1de-5fe797c20000

Continuing on with bad news for Hamas, I recently listened to an interview with the urban warfare expert John Spencer. One thing he mentioned was that he was surprised at how easily the ground invasion of Gaza has gone for Israel so far. He had predicted a bloody grind where the Israeli deaths would already be counted in the hundreds. Instead, about 75 IDF soldiers have been killed and they have already managed to seize a significant portion of the most fortified part of the Gaza Strip. Hamas seems to have been a bit of a paper tiger when it comes to conventional warfare. At least so far. 

He did not talk about this during the interview, but I am guessing that one of the things that happened was that Hamas underestimated the Israeli intelligence services. The first weeks of the war saw a large number of senior Hamas officers from various parts of the organization reported killed in air strikes. I suspect that a lot of their "secret" bases, safe houses and so on were actually known to Israel, but had not been destroyed previously due to a combination of wanting to avoid collateral damage and a general desire to not escalate the conflict. But when Israel loosened its rules of engagement after October 7, they were able to cause crippling damage to Hamas pretty quickly. We will see if this guess turns out to be correct. 

Another thing that might have contributed to Hamas not being able to defend itself very well is them losing a lot of fighting power during their invasion. Israel reported 1000 - 1500 terrorists killed inside Israel plus 200 captured. Then you can probably add at least several hundred that were wounded, and either got evacuated or managed to limp back to Gaza on their own. If a big portion of these troops were the best that Hamas had, which does seem to be the case, then those losses were probably a heavy blow to the organization. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Hmmm
Spelling.

[Darzin]

Yes the ground invasion seems to be going well. I've seen some people say that Israel will never be able to root out Hamas by comparing this conflict to America's misadventures in the Middle East but I don't think the comparison holds Gaza is very small and essentially a city it's a lot easier to secure that than an entire country. 

[Relic]

21 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I keep thinking all the aerial bombing must be near a point of diminishing returns and does little to nothing to defeat an enemy entrenched in tunnels.

 

This is a good point that isnt being brought up enough. 

[kissdbyfire]

Makes sense that Gaza is "easier" than Afghanistan. Like offshore fishing is not as easy as shooting fish in a barrel.

[kissdbyfire]

As per Sangita Myska, the IDF said Hamas is in the south so they’ve started the ground invasion there now.

 

[Zorral]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/03/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestine/#link-CUOFQPUIBJEEVC5Y5YRMDPZW4A

Quote

 

A World Health Organization team that visited Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza described “unimaginable” conditions, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tweeted, adding that the hospital was packed “3 times over its capacity,” with 1,000 patients.

“Countless people were seeking shelter, filling every corner of the facility. Patients were receiving care on the floor, screaming in pain,” he said, calling for a cease-fire.

 

Israel’s assault forced a nurse to leave babies behind. They were found decomposing.
A nurse at al-Nasr hospital was caring for premature babies. Then he faced the most difficult decision of his life.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/03/gaza-premature-babies-dead-nasr/

Some of the comments are, well, I'll just say hysterical, essentially blaming the babies, the medical personnel, etc -- and the WaPo for even reporting such things, including in this story that the Israelis, demanding the hospital be evacuated of everyone, insisted they would take care of the babies, but they didn't, and the evacuees also were attacked at various times, while one of the nurses, forced to evacuate, sneaked back some days later, and sneaked into the hospital, where he found the decomposing babies.

My response to this, as is that of so many others, "The whole world is watching."  

This bodes very badly for the future.

 

[Craving Peaches]

2 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Israel’s assault forced a nurse to leave babies behind. They were found decomposing.

Middle East eye had a video about that. Apparently the hospital staff were only given 30 minutes to evacuate.

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, Zorral said:

My response to this, as is that of so many others, "The whole world is watching."  

I had seen reporting on the decomposing premies a couple of days ago… too horrific for words.

And yes, the whole world is watching and doing nothing. At least the people in a position to do something are doing nothing. 

 

4 minutes ago, Zorral said:

This bodes very badly for the future.

. Yes, it does, very very badly indeed. 

[Ran]

5 hours ago, Darzin said:

I don't think the comparison holds Gaza is very small and essentially a city it's a lot easier to secure that than an entire country. 

Indeed. When military forces target a city in which terrorists are embedded, the military tends to win, as we've seen in multiple battles with ISIS and the like. Hamas is just completely overmatched, which either they didn't expect or they did but they didn't think the IDF would actually commit to destroying them.

Somewhere or other I read that Israel is floating the idea to the US and others of pulling something like what was done with the PLO back in the day -- offering Hamas members to leave Gaza safely for countries that will have them (Tunisia, IIRC, was mentioned), and basically enter exile. If they don't want to surrender, this seems like the next best choice for them. OF course, wherever Palestinian terrorist organizations go, trouble tends to follow for whoever hosts them (see Black September, Lebanon), so it'd have to take some pretty powerful inducements to convince someone to willingly take on a bunch of terrorist fighters.

[Zorral]

Aid trucks are now stopped again.  Very few are getting in.  South Gaza is in horrible shape in every way, just starting with being so dreadfully overcrowded.

Does Israel realize that most diseases don't pay attention to man proclaimed boundaries?  Of course starvation is one from which the neighbors, stuffed with food stuffs, don't need to fear.

[TrueMetis]

8 hours ago, Darzin said:

Yes the ground invasion seems to be going well. I've seen some people say that Israel will never be able to root out Hamas by comparing this conflict to America's misadventures in the Middle East but I don't think the comparison holds Gaza is very small and essentially a city it's a lot easier to secure that than an entire country. 

I mean, the ground part of Afghanistan also went very well, the Taliban never had any hope of taking on coalition forces head on literally anywhere. TBH I don't know why this expert was surprised that Hamas folded so easily in the face of troops on the ground, that is 100% the expected thing. Insurgents generally suck at armed engagements and win through traps and sabotage. It's when they disappear into hiding that things get difficult. That will be the key here, can Hamas fighters hide effectively and are they able to escape to areas the IDF can't reach like the Taliban did with Pakistan.

4 hours ago, Zorral said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/03/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestine/#link-CUOFQPUIBJEEVC5Y5YRMDPZW4A

Israel’s assault forced a nurse to leave babies behind. They were found decomposing.
A nurse at al-Nasr hospital was caring for premature babies. Then he faced the most difficult decision of his life.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/03/gaza-premature-babies-dead-nasr/

Some of the comments are, well, I'll just say hysterical, essentially blaming the babies, the medical personnel, etc -- and the WaPo for even reporting such things, including in this story that the Israelis, demanding the hospital be evacuated of everyone, insisted they would take care of the babies, but they didn't, and the evacuees also were attacked at various times, while one of the nurses, forced to evacuate, sneaked back some days later, and sneaked into the hospital, where he found the decomposing babies.

My response to this, as is that of so many others, "The whole world is watching."  

This bodes very badly for the future.

 

Most moral army in the world.

[Kalbear]

3 hours ago, Zorral said:

Aid trucks are now stopped again.  Very few are getting in.  South Gaza is in horrible shape in every way, just starting with being so dreadfully overcrowded.

Does Israel realize that most diseases don't pay attention to man proclaimed boundaries?  Of course starvation is one from which the neighbors, stuffed with food stuffs, don't need to fear.

Disease isn't really going to be a concern for Israel. There is not enough contact right now between the populations to spread, and things like cholera don't spread like that anyway.

[House Balstroko]

2 hours ago, TrueMetis said:

I mean, the ground part of Afghanistan also went very well, the Taliban never had any hope of taking on coalition forces head on literally anywhere. TBH I don't know why this expert was surprised that Hamas folded so easily in the face of troops on the ground, that is 100% the expected thing. Insurgents generally suck at armed engagements and win through traps and sabotage. It's when they disappear into hiding that things get difficult. That will be the key here, can Hamas fighters hide effectively and are they able to escape to areas the IDF can't reach like the Taliban did with Pakistan.

Unless they somehow get a foothold in Egypt, I’m not sure how they would be able to do so. Keep in mind, that El Sisi is hostile towards Hamas. 

[Zorral]

55 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Disease isn't really going to be a concern for Israel. There is not enough contact right now between the populations to spread,

So merely continuation of murder from the air, starvation, thirst, no medical care.  No problem then, since Israelis will never need to look those whom they are murdering in the eyes.

[Altherion]

3 hours ago, TrueMetis said:

Insurgents generally suck at armed engagements and win through traps and sabotage. It's when they disappear into hiding that things get difficult. That will be the key here, can Hamas fighters hide effectively and are they able to escape to areas the IDF can't reach like the Taliban did with Pakistan.

They're trying their best to hide among the civilian population and thereby getting a lot of the latter killed, but the entire strip is about 365 km² in area, there are no mountains there and it is completely surrounded (Egypt really, really doesn't want Hamas on their territory). I think the thing that surprised the expert was that areas where one would have expected to have the most traps and sabotage are in northern Gaza and the Israelis took them with relative ease.

[Tears of Lys]

Welcome to war.

[Kalbear]

Israel has carried out a lot of air strikes - per idf, over 10,000.

Wow, that sounds like a lot, right? Like way more than Afghanistan or Iraq in two years! 

And it is a lor, AND it's only the amount of bonbs dropped since the ground combat began.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-it-has-carried-out-10000-airstrikes-in-gaza-since-start-of-ground-operation/

[DireWolfSpirit]

I just feel like it will be a familiar deja vu like we saw with the 2nd Gulf War where the initial blitz was barely opposed only for a long insurgency to emerge after the dust settles.

The thinking that the Palestinians are now defeated and are no longer an opposition because of the surface bombing is delusion.

They will reconstitute and be a guerilla threat for another generation. Neither side can ever stop.

[Ran]

In the Gulf War, in the span of a month and a half, 42,000 airstrikes were flown by the US-led coalition. The IAF are dilatants  by comparison.

@DireWolfSpirit 

The Palestinians are definitely not yet defeated, which is why ground forces are necessary, and why the IDF hasn't declared victory (and should resist doing so prematurely, as Bush did with his "Mission Accomplished"). 

If they can lock down Gaza's borders to prevent smuggling going forward, they're going to put a serious pinch on the armed capability of insurgents. Of course, there are IEDs that can be made with relatively straightforward materials that can be produced by insurgents, but the goal should be to push their capability to some low enough level that there's a chance for an interim government to take charge of things (with IDF providing security) and do what one can to root out resistance.

 

[mormont]

58 minutes ago, Ran said:

The Palestinians are definitely not yet defeated

Nor should they be. I know Netanyahu and the rest regard this as the war aim in practice, but it's not. The aim is to defeat Hamas, which is quite different.

58 minutes ago, Ran said:

If they can lock down Gaza's borders to prevent smuggling going forward, they're going to put a serious pinch on the armed capability of insurgents.

That's an enormous 'if'. They haven't succeeded in decades of trying previously. I see no reason to think they can succeed now.