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US politics - wheeling and dealing, avoiding debt ceiling


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10 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

37 counts (not 7)!  Haven't finished reading but if he gets convicted on multiple counts he's GOING TO JAIL.  

Hah, no. His poor valet (who is also being charged the same way) will totally be, but he won't

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1 minute ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Hah, no.

I think it's VERY unlikely he end up in prison too, but there's no reason to be summarily dismissive about that possibility based on the charges.  

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9 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think it's VERY unlikely he end up in prison too, but there's no reason to be summarily dismissive about that possibility based on the charges.  

Why not?

31 are the basic 'kept this document' which is like charging someone for 31 different items shoplifted. It's accurate but not particularly meaningful. None carry a very large sentence. The other 6 have wide latitude in how they're punished. More importantly none of the charge show any actual damages caused. 

And a powerful white dude in the US doing a crime that did not actually cause direct harm (at least as far as we can tell) - they're gonna get nothing. That kind of crime never gets particularly heavily punished. 

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Because last time I checked you did not have the power of premonition.  Nor are you a legal expert.

Well that's where you're wrong, bucko. For instance, my prediction for your responses later today involve you mentioning Florida, drinking, and giving at least one South Park reference

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Just now, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Well that's where you're wrong, bucko. For instance, my prediction for your responses later today involve you mentioning Florida, drinking, and giving at least one South Park reference

I'll give you drinking, but I'm not the one who incessantly mentions me living in Florida.  As for South Park, haven't referenced them in at least, like, a whole week.

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32 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Why not?

31 are the basic 'kept this document' which is like charging someone for 31 different items shoplifted. It's accurate but not particularly meaningful. None carry a very large sentence. The other 6 have wide latitude in how they're punished. More importantly none of the charge show any actual damages caused. 

And a powerful white dude in the US doing a crime that did not actually cause direct harm (at least as far as we can tell) - they're gonna get nothing. That kind of crime never gets particularly heavily punished. 

Anyone else convicted of this charges, up to and include top-level White House staff, cabinet secretaries, or members of congress, would face significant prison time. I agree that there's a decent chance Trump won't, but only because he was President. There's ton of other, less powerful white dudes who would be finished if convicted here. And I wouldn't rule out Trump too; especially if he doesn't win the GOP nomination and therefore there's less concern about the political fallout.

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I will go so far as to say that IF Biden wins reelection then I think that Trump will go to jail for these charges.  Maybe not for very long, that's still TBD. 

Obviously if Trump wins or even some other Republican in 2024 then he'll just get pardoned (or self-pardon) and be free and clear.   

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2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Anyone else convicted of this charges, up to and include top-level White House staff, cabinet secretaries, or members of congress, would face significant prison time. I agree that there's a decent chance Trump won't, but only because he was President. There's ton of other, less powerful white dudes who would be finished if convicted here. And I wouldn't rule out Trump too; especially if he doesn't win the GOP nomination and therefore there's less concern about the political fallout.

I don't think that's accurate at all. While espionage act and other things like this have a VERY successful prosecution rate, the actual penalties are often house arrest at best. And those are people who are largely flunkies. Probably the closest thing we've seen to this - where Petraeus knowingly smuggled documents out and gave them to his lover/biographer to use for info - was a plea deal that meant probation.

Petraeus, notably, was not particularly 'finished' either. 

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1 minute ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

was a plea deal that meant probation.

Agreed, a plea deal would be the most likely outcome based on the circumstances and "level" of people involved.  But as @Mindwalker already mentioned, a plea deal would almost certainly entail Trump agreeing not to run.  Do you see him doing that Carnac?

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Agreed, a plea deal would be the most likely outcome based on the circumstances and "level" of people involved.  But as @Mindwalker already mentioned, a plea deal would almost certainly entail Trump agreeing not to run.  Do you see him doing that Carnac?

I don't think they'd do that as part of a plea deal for getting a conviction anyway. This ain't Spiro Agnew and Trump would never, ever accept it. 

I also would appreciate if you would use my full title of Kalnac the magnificent

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