US politics: Trumpenslammer

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Old video, still good and worth watching.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Gaston de Foix said:

This is true in the abstract, but any non-Trump nominee is going to under enormous pressure to commit to pardoning Trump during the campaign to unite the non-MAGA wing with the MAGA body of the Republican party.  Dollars to donuts they succumb to try to win 2024. 

Even if they don't, the MAGA congresspeople will condition their co-operation on any nominees/legislative agenda on a pardon for Trump.  

You can promise a pardon without promising pardoning him for everything. And this is also why some charges are going to be filed at the state level to avoid that issue.

I'd like to think that someone with an actual chance of winning grows a spine and points out that when you're facing that many charges you have to be guilty of something, but that person simply doesn't exist and may never will for the foreseeable future. Frankenstein's monster is on the loose and the conservative townsfolk want to feed it instead of killing it.

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And, controversial opinion, but if Trump actually wins 2024,  Biden will almost certainly pardon him anyway to spare the country a constitutional crisis. 

I cannot see this happening at all. 

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Asa Hutchison is the normie Republican in the race, IMHO. 

He has no chance of winning and right now Idk if any traditional Republican could break through. Christie and Pence were pretty traditional by comparison. Their numbers are awful. Haley was the one I feared most a few years back, but she's toast. Scott has a certain appeal, but as of now he's no where close. DeSantis was the real threat even though I'd never call him normal, but he's sinking like a stone. It's Trump's party and the base will follow him off a cliff. MTG would probably have a better chance right now than anyone I just listed to win the nomination. We have to accept that traditional Republicans, who by the way were already pretty wacky, are not going to lead the party going forward. 

[Jaxom 1974]

1 hour ago, Ormond said:

I just don't get how Pence's statement would be "inoffensive" to Trump since it starts with "Today's indictment." He is clearly putting it in a context where anyone can plainly tell who he is referring to. If he thinks not having the name "Trump" in that sentence means he is "avoiding taking a shot at Trump", I think he's being silly. 

 

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

I don't want to belabor this point, but IMO Pence's statement reads like it is carefully worded to soften any criticism of Trump. 

If he wanted to actually throw down with Trump, he would say the obvious, that I saved American democracy when Trump tried to destroy it, that I am willing to stand up to "the elites" regardless of party, and that is why I should be your choice as president. 

A huge portion of the Republican electorate isn't ready to hear that message, but unless Pence can actually spread that message, his campaign is completely hopeless anyway.  

Pence went on and on today defending his actions in every way he could...yet still couldn't say Trump's name. He's struggling to try to actually be considered a candidate, when he's never had a chance. And for all of his protestations that he, "did the right thing ", he still can't actually finish the job because it has to mean he has to acknowledge he isn't going to be President.  There's no needle for you the thread, Mike. Not when the rope being used to thread is the type used to tie up aircraft carriers to the dock...

[horangi]

38 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'd like to think that someone with an actual chance of winning grows a spine and points out that when you're facing that many charges you have to be guilty of something, but that person simply doesn't exist and may never will for the foreseeable future. Frankenstein's monster is on the loose and the conservative townsfolk want to feed it instead of killing it.

 

To be fair to the other candidates (not that we need to be), keeping a high profile while not attacking the former president and hoping for him to self-implode and leave a vacuum is probably the best bet to get the nomination.  Simply because there aren't any other real paths that I see at this time.

[Kalbear]

There is no beating Trump. There's only getting enough power and respect from Trump to be included in his cabinet or as his VP. That's the end game for most of the candidates out there. 

Sure, some are probably hoping that he dies or that he decides to retire to Hungary or whatever, and if that happens to be the case then they'll be in some vague position to capitalize. But most know that he's going to win, and are making sure that they can get something when he does. 

 

[Gaston de Foix]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

He has no chance of winning and right now Idk if any traditional Republican could break through. 

This is true. 

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

You can promise a pardon without promising pardoning him for everything. And this is also why some charges are going to be filed at the state level to avoid that issue.

I'd like to think that someone with an actual chance of winning grows a spine and points out that when you're facing that many charges you have to be guilty of something, but that person simply doesn't exist and may never will for the foreseeable future. Frankenstein's monster is on the loose and the conservative townsfolk want to feed it instead of killing it.

The charges are being filed at state level without coordination with DOJ.  There's no orchestrated plan here.  That said, there's no chance that a Republican president will be able to weasel out of pardoning Trump for all federal charges if they do make that promise.  That will simply provoke the ire of the base, and not get them anything in return. 

But ALL of this is besides the point.  As you say, either Biden will be re-elected or Trump will be.   

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, horangi said:

To be fair to the other candidates (not that we need to be), keeping a high profile while not attacking the former president and hoping for him to self-implode and leave a vacuum is probably the best bet to get the nomination.  Simply because there aren't any other real paths that I see at this time.

Idk, I think you have to go through him to beat him. He's already imploding and his poll numbers are roughly the same. Shattering his fake tough guy vibe is probably a better strategy. Waiting for him to collapse likely means as Kal said your best hope is VP or a cabinet position. I'm just surprised how afraid most of them seem. Trump is weal and in a bad spot. Christie is going to fail, but at least I respect what he's trying. 

46 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

The charges are being filed at state level without coordination with DOJ.  There's no orchestrated plan here.  That said, there's no chance that a Republican president will be able to weasel out of pardoning Trump for all federal charges if they do make that promise.  That will simply provoke the ire of the base, and not get them anything in return. 

But ALL of this is besides the point.  As you say, either Biden will be re-elected or Trump will be.   

Without coordination, but with an understanding of game theory and how things could play out. I think everyone that can charge him at the state level should and I'm sure they're all thinking the same thing. 

And I wouldn't be so sure about pardoning Trump having to be a must. If things get too bad they will try to distance themselves from him. That's still not the betting favorite, but there's a lot of time left and we have no idea how bad this could get for him (and if there's any justice in the world, Javanka as well). 

[Fragile Bird]

Lol, if the next president is a Republican who is not Trump, can’t you imagine him having a “come to Jesus” moment, and gravely announcing he has to be punished for his crimes? Knock off Trump once and for all and restore the honor of the party, two birds with one stone?

[Kalbear]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Idk, I think you have to go through him to beat him. He's already imploding and his poll numbers are roughly the same. Shattering his fake tough guy vibe is probably a better strategy. Waiting for him to collapse likely means as Kal said your best hope is VP or a cabinet position. I'm just surprised how afraid most of them seem. Trump is weal and in a bad spot. Christie is going to fail, but at least I respect what he's trying. 

Trump is not remotely weak right now. He has an absurd amount of money, crazy brand recognition, poll numbers are great from Republicans and he's entirely the brand of the Republican party. I don't understand even thinking that he's weak. In every way that matters he is significantly stronger now than he was in 2016. 

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And I wouldn't be so sure about pardoning Trump having to be a must. If things get too bad they will try to distance themselves from him. That's still not the betting favorite, but there's a lot of time left and we have no idea how bad this could get for him (and if there's any justice in the world, Javanka as well). 

As long as they don't distance themselves from him it won't actually get that bad. There is very little sign that anyone is trying to distance themselves from him - not other candidates, not other politicians, not the GOP, not Fox, not other news agencies. Could it happen? Maybe? Probably not, but it's possible. 

But there's a much more likely conclusion: the supporters of Trump are already 100% aware of who he is and what trouble he is in, and see him being in trouble as an indication of his righteousness. He is now what all conservative voters like mcbigski long to be - a victim. They're not going to turn away from him for that - they're going to circle their wagons around him in his defense, because an attack on him is an attack on their identity. 

[Zorral]

Of course NPR's All Things Considered just had to have a Very Extensive interview with the defendant's attorney.  O course defendant's lawyer said there was no way defendant could be convicted of anything because he received the very best legal counsel from the wisest and most knowledgeable constitutional legal experts on the Constitution and the law, i.e. rudy, clark, etc.   The prosecution must prove intent and intent cannot be proven. 

That is exactly the opposite of what he's being tried on.  It's conspiracy.

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Zorral

[ThinkerX]

I'm not sure if this is criminally pathetic or merely typical:

Wasted welfare money sparks candidates' feud in election for Mississippi governor (msn.com)

Both candidates are looking past next Tuesday's party primaries, in which Presley is unopposed and Reeves faces two nominal challengers, to frame the general election contest. Republicans have long dominated the state, but Presley, a cousin of legendary rocker Elvis Presley, hopes to pull off a surprise.

Former Mississippi Department of Human Services director John Davis and other people — including two who previously donated to Reeves' campaigns — have pleaded guilty to criminal charges related to the misuse of welfare money that was intended to help some of the poorest people in the U.S.

From 2016 to 2019, the Mississippi Department of Human Services misspent more than $77 million in money from the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families program, according to the state auditor. Prosecutors have said the department gave money to nonprofit organizations that spent it on projects such as a $5 million volleyball facility at the University of Southern Mississippi.

[Mindwalker]

"561 years in prison" - oh Donald, you little tease!

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

Trump is not remotely weak right now. He has an absurd amount of money, crazy brand recognition, poll numbers are great from Republicans and he's entirely the brand of the Republican party. I don't understand even thinking that he's weak. In every way that matters he is significantly stronger now than he was in 2016. 

He's weak as fuck personally. Yes he has money and fame, but he's also a scared little boy who Susan Collins could likely beat up in a fist fight. The other candidates need to recognize this and attack. The sad pandering will get them nowhere. 

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As long as they don't distance themselves from him it won't actually get that bad. There is very little sign that anyone is trying to distance themselves from him - not other candidates, not other politicians, not the GOP, not Fox, not other news agencies. Could it happen? Maybe? Probably not, but it's possible. 

That's the problem, they're afraid of a ghost who only knows how to pretend how to be a bully. Walk up to him, slap him in the face, bend him over, let the audience see him cry and you become their new champion. This whole affair is the elephant being scared of the mouse. Just step on it. And if he does win the nomination I hope Biden's team has learned that lesson. 

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But there's a much more likely conclusion: the supporters of Trump are already 100% aware of who he is and what trouble he is in, and see him being in trouble as an indication of his righteousness. He is now what all conservative voters like mcbigski long to be - a victim. They're not going to turn away from him for that - they're going to circle their wagons around him in his defense, because an attack on him is an attack on their identity. 

You only need to get a small percentage of his supporters not to turn out. We're not talking about major shifts here. If you make him look pathetic enough people will break away and I think that starts with making him look like a bitch. Once his audience sees that enough will stop defending his corruption. You have to break him publicly. Being timid never works at anything if you want to be on top of the mountain as king or queen. 

[Zorral]

His supporters DO NOT KNOW what he's charged with or why or anything because NOBODY TELLS THEM.  They are ranted at by defendant and supporters as to him being persecuted martyr by eviLe conspiring Deep State forces, but they have no idea of what it really is because they are told by their poisonous media/informants NOTHING AT All.  And his supporters even in the House and Senate repeat all this garbage while admitting they haven't even read the indictment, any more than they watched the Jan 6th Investigation Committee hearings.

The rest of the nominees aren't anywhere near as entertaining for the defendant's supporters.  Even on trial, particularly on trial, it's a much better entertainment for all these jerkwaddies who have no life so must live through others.

[James Arryn]

3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Lol, if the next president is a Republican who is not Trump, can’t you imagine him having a “come to Jesus” moment, and gravely announcing he has to be punished for his crimes? Knock off Trump once and for all and restore the honor of the party, two birds with one stone?

A kazillion times more likely he’s pardoned ‘for the good of the country’. Which is something you almost never hear said about common criminals trying to steal things of much less worth/value/impact. It’s almost as if…stop me if you’ve heard this before…there’s two kinds of justice. 

[Zorral]

This is really going to help exonerate the defendant I suppose? SubReddits back and in full form.

Trump Extremists Make New Calls to Hang Mike Pence: ‘Watch His Toes Dangle’
Authorities are monitoring for a spike in extreme rhetoric online, wary of it crossing over into real-life violence

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-indictment-mike-pence-jack-smith-1234799753/

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 7/30/2023 at 6:19 PM, karaddin said:

Yes this sounds incredibly juvenile and stupid when you type it out, but that's because neo Nazis are incredibly juvenile and stupid. They get a bizarre delight out of inserting this weird numerology all over the place, sometimes slightly more subtle like making every sentence 14 words long or something like that, but the way RFK Jr has done it here is pretty bog standard. The 14 days is a plausible period, but saying "88 days" instead of "3 months" like a normal person is not.

I wouldn’t say juvenile and stupid as much as deranged.

I agree with the rest of your post but I argue it’s not just to signal support/allyship  to other nazis.

It’s often times used as bait to get called a nazi from people who recognize the code and then immediately claim innocence, that they’re just another victim of the woke mob who calls literally EVERYONE a nazi for the most flimsiest of reasons.

An unfortunate thing is this tactic often works with people who may not be Nazis or far-right reflexively playing defense out of fear being the next victim of cancel culture.

 

[Fez]

12 hours ago, James Arryn said:

A kazillion times more likely he’s pardoned ‘for the good of the country’. Which is something you almost never hear said about common criminals trying to steal things of much less worth/value/impact. It’s almost as if…stop me if you’ve heard this before…there’s two kinds of justice. 

If the next Republican president isn't Trump, it means something has happened that has weakened Trump so much in the party that they don't need to worry about or address him every again. There's not going to be any nail-biter finish to the primary where Trump loses but remains a lurking threat. Trump is going to romp his way to the nomination unless something (and I have no idea what) causes him to completely collapse.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

If the next Republican president isn't Trump, it means something has happened that has weakened Trump so much in the party that they don't need to worry about or address him every again. There's not going to be any nail-biter finish to the primary where Trump loses but remains a lurking threat. Trump is going to romp his way to the nomination unless something (and I have no idea what) causes him to completely collapse.

Many of us complain about how weak the Democratic field of future candidates is, but what does it say about the Republicans' side?... They've literally got nothing. Just speaks to the shitty place our politics are in. 

[Maithanet]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Many of us complain about how weak the Democratic field of future candidates is, but what does it say about the Republicans' side?... They've literally got nothing. Just speaks to the shitty place our politics are in. 

I don't think the democratic field is weak.  Whitmer and Warnock in particular seem like very promising candidates.