Werthead Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Brewing discontent in Bashkortostan (a Russian region near the border with Kazakhstan), where a prominent Bashkir activist has been jailed for promoting the Bashkir language and culture. Thousands of protestors have turned out at the courthouse for the last few days. He's been jailed for four years and riot police have been deployed to disperse the protestors, although some apparently left the scene upon realising they were badly outnumbered. Some riot police that tried to deploy their batons were disarmed. Reporting on the protests has been banned. Bashkir wives and mothers have taken to social media to call upon their sons and husbands to put down their guns in Ukraine and return home to defend their homeland. Although this is unlikely turn into something more major, it seems to be making the Kremlin freak out a bit. The Severskaya Police Station in Krasnodar Krai has been burned down by anti-Putin Russian partisans. Partisans have also destroyed railway relay cabinets in Saratov, Yaroslavl and Derzhinsk in the last few weeks. A $50 million polyester factory in Shakhty, just north of Rostov-on-Done, has exploded. Unclear if it was a weapons strike, or who caused it (seems a bit of a low-priority target for Ukrainian forces). A Russian penal unit near the front has reportedly descended into anarchy: commanders beat up some of the inmates for a laugh, but were taken by surprise when the former inmates tied them up and beat the crap out of them. The inmates took shelter in a secure room that was then broken into by other Russian soldiers with machine guns. The outcome is unclear. Probably not ideal when there around 150,000 Russian ex-prisoners have passed through the Russian military in Ukraine. Russia is currently selling its foreign currency reserves at a rate of around 17 billion rubles ($200 million) per day. This is to prop up the currency until the election. That is, fairly obviously, unsustainable even in the medium term. The shock to the Russian economy when they stop doing that could be considerable (Russia has shown tremendous ingenuity in dodging economic bullets, but Nabiullina is running out of room to maneuver). A significant Russian attack on the Krynky bridgehead was defeated. Apparently troops from the 205th went into battle without fire support and no ability to call in artillery or drone assistance. They were sitting ducks for the Ukrainians and suffered massive casualties. The 2nd Company of the 810th Marines did manage to reach the centre of Krynky to raise a Russian flag, but it was blown up less than an hour later (the Ukrainians have not really held the centre of Krynky at all but seem to be arrayed in a wide horseshoe around the village - of which not much is left standing - in a better defensive posture). Meanwhile, some Russian units have gotten stuck on islands in the Dnipro further north-east due to the half-frozen river, and have to be resupplied by drone and by the air, which is hazardous in that area. Ukraine is holding the northern flank of Avdiivka at Stepove, defeating a Russian armoured assault. An M2 Bradley drove back the attacking Russian forces. Intriguingly, the Ukrainians believe the attackers were Chechen. Chechen forces have so far managed to avoid a lot of frontline combat duty, but seem to be seeing actual combat now with greater frequency due to force degradation. The first two of a dozen new Leopard tanks and fifty additional SCALP French cruise missiles have been delivered to Ukraine. Arakasi, Ser Scot A Ellison, wiedzma and 6 others 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Okay... Moscow - home of the Russian elite - is under some sort of rolling blackout scheme for at least a couple of months owing to an infrastructure catastrophe, probably brought on via a combination of the war and piss-poor maintenance. Fixing that is going to take a pile of money. Yet, Russia appears to have actively set a major source of that money (the foreign currency reserves) on fire. Factor in additional catastrophes brought on by Ukrainian attacks and lousy upkeep, plus most of the people who know how to do this stuff are dead in Ukraine or doing their damndest to flee the country...and this is a collapse in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Ukraine has fielded a group named after a Warhammer 40,000 Chaos god. There's also a British volunteer unit in the Ukrainian foreign unit called the Dark Angels. DireWolfSpirit, wiedzma and House Balstroko 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Major Russian attack on Novomykhailivka which would have been significantly dangerous had they not advanced a line of vehicles across pre-zeroed open ground in full view of multiple Ukrainian defensive positions. Exactly why they attacked into the middle of a killing ground would normally be unknown, but here we can just say "But Russia." African volunteers in the Russian Army have been captured by the Ukrainians. They were "shocked" by levels of corruption in the Russian military, which from people who had served in Ethiopia and Somalia is really saying something. The rolling blackouts in Moscow are now firmly underway, despite Moscow authorities saying the news - from their own utility companies! - was fake. Makhachkala, capital of Dagestan where major riots erupted last year, has seen a major infrastructure failure resulting in an electrical fire. A major oil depot in Bryansk which was hit by a drone strike is still ablaze after 24 hours. Again, there seems to have been a failure of the fire service to attend in proper numbers and again there seems to be bureaucratic wrangling over whether to send aircraft to help fight the fires (unconfirmed rumours that the fire service across Russia is under strength due to shadow conscription and some pilots are refusing to fly their planes as they have been under-maintained due to the sanctions). Looks like the protests in Bashkortostan have died down after riot police successfully broke them up. At first there was strong resistance, some riot police ran off, people successfully stopped buses carrying off detainees, but then the riot police came back in larger numbers. Ha: House Balstroko, Ser Reptitious, Maithanet and 2 others 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darzin Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/15/2024 at 6:47 PM, Celestial said: The example of Japan shows the opposite what Darzin implies. How many times does history have to show us that dictators are prone to overestimate their strength and underestimate their opponents? A dictatorial regime tends to think that their willingness and capacity to force their citizenry to starve or take millions of casualties in order to win a war is evidence of strength - while democracies' incapacity to do the same is a sign of weakness. And it is not a 100% bet that such an assessment is absolutely deluded. Yes, Hitlerite Germany, Japan or Saddam were wrong when they thought they could discourage their enemies through high losses. But North Vietnam and the Talibans won by exploiting this exact same scenario: in their case, the assessment that they could outlast America in the long-term was proven correct. This is the point I was making the article suggested a few missiles aimed at Berlin and Paris would make the democracies fold rather than enrage them and embolden them to action. I think that the lesson of those wars is that democracies are willing to fight conventional wars with clear goals and they will tire of guerilla quagmires, though both Vietnam and Afghanistan had 20 years of western involvement before that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 hours ago, Darzin said: This is the point I was making the article suggested a few missiles aimed at Berlin and Paris would make the democracies fold rather than enrage them and embolden them to action. I think that the lesson of those wars is that democracies are willing to fight conventional wars with clear goals and they will tire of guerilla quagmires, though both Vietnam and Afghanistan had 20 years of western involvement before that happened. The picture changes a bit when you step back and look at Russia's history these past forty years or so. They LOST the war in Afghanistan. The entire Warsaw Pact apart from Russia quit that sham alliance. Some went further, joining NATO. The Baltic States quit the USSR and at least one of them is a NATO member. And Russia was unable to prevent ANY of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Sure seems like going to war is not nearly as fun as the propaganda machine told him it would be. Ser Scot A Ellison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 hours ago, ThinkerX said: The picture changes a bit when you step back and look at Russia's history these past forty years or so. They LOST the war in Afghanistan. The entire Warsaw Pact apart from Russia quit that sham alliance. Some went further, joining NATO. The Baltic States quit the USSR and at least one of them is a NATO member. And Russia was unable to prevent ANY of this. All three of the Baltic States are NATO members. Ser Scot A Ellison and wiedzma 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, Werthead said: All three of the Baltic States are NATO members. Thank yu, couldn't remember that right off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 hours ago, Wilbur said: Sure seems like going to war is not nearly as fun as the propaganda machine told him it would be. When you use water as rocket fuel, don't expect much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Per the Ukraine general staff Russia has lost at least 375000 personnel in the war. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-has-lost-376-030-troops-in-ukraine/ Take that with a grain of salt, but it may be an undercount too, especially given how bad the emergency medical treatment has been for injured troops. The loss of over 6000 tanks is insane to me, but what made me laugh is the "and one submarine" at the end. wiedzma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corvinus85 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Kalbear said: Per the Ukraine general staff Russia has lost at least 375000 personnel in the war. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-has-lost-376-030-troops-in-ukraine/ Take that with a grain of salt, but it may be an undercount too, especially given how bad the emergency medical treatment has been for injured troops. The loss of over 6000 tanks is insane to me, but what made me laugh is the "and one submarine" at the end. 331 planes is also a staggering number. And to lose 23 ships and boats to a nation that doesn't have anything more than some coast guard boats is embarrassing. wiedzma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) Looks like the Russians may have overrun one of the strongpoints on the flanks of Avdiivka. This is annoying because the Ukrainians had made excellent ground retaking territory to the north of the city and reinforced Stepove, turning it into another grinder for Russian forces. But it looks like that might have been at the cost of weakening defences to the south. We could see street-by-street fighting in Avdiivka in the pretty near future, which will probably lead to the town falling. But by hell the Russians have paid a price for it. On the large-scale strategic front, it's also not that big a deal: this is almost a suburb of Donetsk city and should have been in Russian hands ten years ago. Not necessarily a lot of great options for advancing further out from Donetsk either. The Russians may switch to a different front afterwards. 2 hours ago, Kalbear said: Per the Ukraine general staff Russia has lost at least 375000 personnel in the war. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-has-lost-376-030-troops-in-ukraine/ Take that with a grain of salt, but it may be an undercount too, especially given how bad the emergency medical treatment has been for injured troops. The loss of over 6000 tanks is insane to me, but what made me laugh is the "and one submarine" at the end. I think the general idea is to take it as casualties, not just KIA. Actual KIA seems to be a significant portion of that (and far, far higher than it should be), but not all of it. A very large proportion of the casualties will also not be returning to the front or, if they were forced back out there, would not be very combat-effective. Edited January 22 by Werthead wiedzma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Quote One of Europe's most senior politicians recounted how former U.S. President Donald Trump privately warned that America would not come to the EU's aid if it was attacked militarily. "You need to understand that if Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you," Trump told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020, according to French European Commissioner Thierry Breton, who was also present at a meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos. "By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO," Trump also said, according to Breton. "And he added, ‘and by the way, you owe me $400 billion, because you didn’t pay, you Germans, what you had to pay for defense,'" Breton said about the tense meeting, where the EU's then-trade chief Phil Hogan was also present. The above is hardly going to surprise anyone but it does reduce any uncertainty that does exist. Nothing is certain of course but you can't say you weren't warned. https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vow-never-help-europe-attack-thierry-breton/ Trump did seemingly refer to the above more recently but the timing doesn't work (as he seems to suggest his threat was much earlier in his presidency, rather than near the end). https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/20/trump-nato-eu-00136732 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 hours ago, Padraig said: The above is hardly going to surprise anyone but it does reduce any uncertainty that does exist. Nothing is certain of course but you can't say you weren't warned. https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vow-never-help-europe-attack-thierry-breton/ Trump did seemingly refer to the above more recently but the timing doesn't work (as he seems to suggest his threat was much earlier in his presidency, rather than near the end). https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/20/trump-nato-eu-00136732 ‘and by the way, you owe me 400 billion… ‘ Drumpf’s recombination of manifest and abstract stupidity would be …unfortunate… in almost any other person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/21/2024 at 5:19 AM, Darzin said: This is the point I was making the article suggested a few missiles aimed at Berlin and Paris would make the democracies fold rather than enrage them and embolden them to action. I think that the lesson of those wars is that democracies are willing to fight conventional wars with clear goals and they will tire of guerilla quagmires, though both Vietnam and Afghanistan had 20 years of western involvement before that happened. The difference between Japan attacking Pearl Harbour and the US getting their arses handed to them in Viet Nam and Afghanistan (and it should be noted Russia got its arse handed to it in Afghanistan a couple of decades earlier) is who attacked who's territory. The USA aside, I think it would be fair to say no western democracy is willing to invade and occupy another country. But I think every western democracy is willing to forcefully defend its own territory. Whether they can do so successfully or not is a different matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conflicting Thought Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 17 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: The USA aside, I think it would be fair to say no western democracy is willing to invade and occupy another country. But I think every western democracy is willing to forcefully defend its own territory. Whether they can do so successfully or not is a different matter. i guess it depends how you define occupation, haiti has been occupied or semi occupied, and france has just recently been leaving africa, its not conventional occupation though. Rippounet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rippounet Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) Edit: shoot, I thought this was the international events thread for a minute. I moved my post there. Edited January 24 by Rippounet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) Germany has agreed to give Sea King helicopters to Ukraine. An IL-76 aircraft has crashed near Belgorod. Confusion over what happened. Some suggestion that Ukrainian POWs were on the aircraft but no confirmation, and it would not be standard operating procedure to transport prisoners by air. Ukrainian Intelligence states that the plane was carrying a number of S-300 missiles. Russian propaganda against Kazakhstan has been ramping up again, saying that Kazakhstan was created by Russia and exists only by Russia's good graces. Intriguingly, they extended this description to Kyrgyzstan, and implied that Azerbaijanis and Uzbeks are all naturally Russian peoples. Russia has carried out a successful strategic bombing attack on a crucial piece of infrastructure, a dam. Intriguingly, this was a Russian dam located in Voronezh. Fortunately for the dam, the bomb failed to detonate, but damaged the dam through the physical impact. Rioting in Yakutia after a local was murdered, by some reports by a criminal released under the amnesty programme for those fighting in Ukraine. Regime enforcers moved in and dispersed the protestors. Edited January 24 by Werthead wiedzma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18 minutes ago, Werthead said: Russia has carried out a successful strategic bombing attack on a crucial piece of infrastructure, a dam. Intriguingly, this was a Russian dam located in Voronezh. Fortunately for the dam, the bomb failed to detonate, but damaged the dam through the physical impact. Eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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