Israel Hamas War XI -- Foggier and Foggier

[karaddin]

Sounds like the operation flushed them out of their location without needlessly bombing civilians and was actually able to gather information about their operation then. If it was a well prepared location then the loss of it should hurt Hamas, along with the IDF getting a clearer picture of where the tunnel connections are and thus being able to deny further stretches of the tunnels from Hamas are both wins.

Sounds like a successful operation without major collateral damage. Now would be an excellent time to maintain security on the hospital, restore power, bring the doctors back with appropriate screening and give the Palestinians a hospital they can go to in short term safety. Make a real point about how Hamas endangered the hospital, the doctors and the patients using them all as human shields and forcing them to lie about it while Israel is turning it into a place of safety. This would be more effective if they also stopped bombing civilians.

[Mudguard]

Just now, Ran said:

The tiles all look pretty clean, and I would have expected, I don't know, cobwebs in corners and shit if it had been abandoned years ago.

For some who are insistent on doubting every piece of evidence put before them, sure, but I don't think the IDF is concerned with the perpetually opposed.

Like I said, the tunnels and rooms can be repurposed.  No need to abandon them. 

I just want to see conclusive evidence of the HQ.  What they've shown us so far can be found all throughout the tunnel system.  If you actually think what they've shown us is conclusive evidence, there's really no point in having a discussion.

[Craving Peaches]

I don't think anyone is expecting a Hamas Legion of Doom type base but what we have seen so far really doesn't cut it for a 'Hamas HQ'. It is just tunnels which can be found elsewhere. 

[TrueMetis]

"The evidence it was there, is that there's nothing there!".

Not only is the burden of proof on the IDF, they put out stuff that very specifically increased the burden of proof significantly. If they don't want people doubting them, maybe they shouldn't have claimed there was a god damn supervillian lair.

And I can't believe they're still using the calendar dipshit as their spokesperson.

[Zorral]

Hospitals tend to have a lot of tunnels under them anyway.  I've been given tours of hospitals and yes, there were tunnels.  Particularly when it is a massive medical campus -- all those tunnels that connect the various buildings.

I dunnno; so far, not convinced, not really about this being a big Hamas enclave.

[Ran]

3 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Hospitals tend to have a lot of tunnels under them anyway. 

These are not the sort of tunnels you will find in any hospital complex you've ever been in. These are specifically tunnels created by Hamas, using their particular techniques that they have previously proudly shown off to reporters. This entails concrete archways and slabs that they can quickly put together, no paving on the ground, and then crude wiring for electricity and communication. Like this:

 

[karaddin]

I'm sure that Hamas have a 'HQ' of some kind, so I'm open to the possibility of this indeed having been one of them. It's probably not productive to get drawn into an argument over the details of this, which is why I'm running with "ok let's assume this was true" and then looking at what I think would be good that Israel can do from there.

I guess that presupposes my view that the hospital didn't stop being a hospital worthy of protection even if Hamas were under it, they're Doctors trying to save lives in difficult circumstances they have no control over. But clearing it out and establishing a safe and controlled hospital campus is so so much better than simply bombing it and I really want them to be feeling the pressure to opt for this over bombing in the future.

Also seriously turn the power back on for them.

[Mudguard]

Yes, the tunnels shown under Al Shifa look to be Hamas tunnels, and so far, it's not clear whether they are even connected to any hospital buildings.  I would also expect hospital tunnels to be much larger and much more polished.

According the the video summary (video posted Oct 25, 2023, so before the raid on Al Shifa) : 

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Hamas' tunnel system under Gaza "includes everything that a military needs to wage a war, to carry out and to plan and to direct operations: it has its ammunition, it has lines of communication, large rooms, bathrooms, amenities, electricity," tunnel warfare expert Daphné Richemond-Barak explains.  

That pretty much describes what they have found so far under Al-Shifa.  Again, all this is standard tunnel infrastructure.  The IDF is going to have to show a lot more to prove that the HQ is or was there.

[Tywin et al.]

35 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

I actually suggested much earlier that if the HQ was at Al Shifa in the past, that Hamas would have moved it a long time ago when rumors of its location started to spread over a decade ago.  What's the point of having a secret base if its location is well known?  

There's really no reason they needed to move it in the past. If anything they'd probably prep it so it could be moved in a hurry if necessary. 

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Let's say they find a lot more rooms and the multi-level structure shown in the animations, but everything is gone.  You would have no idea when they actually left.  Maybe they finished moving out recently.  Maybe they moved out their HQ over 10 years ago.  And they can still use the space for other shit.  And it's also possible that the HQ was never here.

Like Ran said, the rooms and bathrooms shown on the video look fairly clean. I didn't see anything that suggests they've been sitting there unused for a few months, let alone ten years. 

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The IDF is the one with the burden of proof.  They need to find solid evidence to back up their claims.  A tunnel and some empty rooms isn't going to cut it.

Idk, I'm pretty sure if the IDF found undeniable evidence with a note saying "Hamas was here" and they were totally right that many people's minds wouldn't change. 

[Tywin et al.]

28 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Hospitals tend to have a lot of tunnels under them anyway.  I've been given tours of hospitals and yes, there were tunnels.  Particularly when it is a massive medical campus -- all those tunnels that connect the various buildings.

I dunnno; so far, not convinced, not really about this being a big Hamas enclave.

Sigh. I've worked in a hospital for nearly eight years. Yes there are tunnels beneath them. Likewise, I worked in government facilities for several years. Capitols have massive underground networks. You know what makes them different? They don't look like anything we've seen from that footage. What we've seen is not your standard infrastructure. 

[Mudguard]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

There's really no reason they needed to move it in the past. If anything they'd probably prep it so it could be moved in a hurry if necessary. 

Like Ran said, the rooms and bathrooms shown on the video look fairly clean. I didn't see anything that suggests they've been sitting there unused for a few months, let alone ten years. 

Idk, I'm pretty sure if the IDF found undeniable evidence with a note saying "Hamas was here" and they were totally right that many people's minds wouldn't change. 

The IDF entered Gaza in 2014.  Hamas would have had no idea whether they needed to evacuate then, since the location of the HQ was already assumed to be in Al Shifa by that time.  So why wouldn't they have evacuated then?

Like I mentioned twice now, the space would have been repurposed and still used.  They would not have abandoned the tunnels and rooms after spending so much effort to make them.  Just move the HQ to somewhere else and use these tunnels for something less important.

No reputable media organization has claimed that the IDF has found the HQ, and the reason is very simple.  The evidence shown falls way short.  I would have no problem believing the HQ is or was under Al-Shifa, but the evidentiary burden is high, as it should be.

[Ran]

4 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

he IDF entered Gaza in 2014.

The IDF entered only just past the borders, to demolish cross-border tunnel networks. As we saw here, if they were going to go to Shifa, it would have been a process of weeks of airstrikes followed by two weeks or more of ground maneuvering to close in on it. Since that didn't even come close to happening, there was no reason for Hamas to clear out, because Shifa wasn't under threat at any point in 2014, or since, until now.

[GrimTuesday]

7 hours ago, Ran said:

Can't prove a negative. 

 

Who exactly is not supposed to "allow" it? Are we sending mind-controlling rays out to make sure people think rightly?

From what I've read, the security and military heads endorsed the deal and convinced the far right holdouts to come on board, so I'm thinking they're comfortable with its impact on the ongoing goal of destroying Hamas's capabilities and control of Gaza, while also advancing the goal of recovering hostages.

There is no evidence that Hamas' demands were in any way softened by the deaths of almost 15k Palestinians, and you know that if there was Israel would be shouting it from the roof. Israel's silence is equally as illuminating as its statements.

Stop being intentionally thick, both of us know that what I mean is that Israel's narrative cannot be accepted as true at face value, which has be the historic trend, and must be challenged.

Ok, so the right wingers were convinced that the second Nakba they have been salivating is well under way and this ceasefire will do nothing to stop it, you're not making it better.

[Mudguard]

4 minutes ago, Ran said:

The IDF entered only just past the borders, to demolish cross-border tunnel networks. As we saw here, if they were going to go to Shifa, it would have been a process of weeks of airstrikes followed by two weeks or more of ground maneuvering to close in on it. Since that didn't even come close to happening, there was no reason for Hamas to clear out, because Shifa wasn't under threat at any point in 2014, or since, until now.

Who says that's the only way to get to Al-Shifa?

As for this war, the ground invasion didn't start until Oct 27th, yet you claim that they've had over a month to move out.  Under you reasoning, they wouldn't have needed to start moving until the ground invasion was well under way, so maybe they would have only started moving out 2-3 weeks before the raid.  Whether you could empty out an entire HQ in 2-3 weeks through a single file tunnel is questionable.

[Tywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

There is no evidence that Hamas' demands were in any way softened by the deaths of almost 15k Palestinians,

Their initial public demands after Israel responded were a ceasefire in exchange for beginning to discuss hostages and at the time they wanted thousands of people for a handful of the hostages Hamas took. 

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Stop being intentionally thick, both of us know that what I mean is that Israel's narrative cannot be accepted as true at face value, which has be the historic trend, and must be challenged.

But Hamas are freedom fighters, right, and their word is solid? 

[Tywin et al.]

3 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

Whether you could empty out an entire HQ in 2-3 weeks through a single file tunnel is questionable.

Not really. In a previous role we were able to clear out a few floors of a large bank of pretty much everything using a few staircases in a couple days and there was much more to move than what I expect would be at the locations we've seen. It doesn't take that much time if you're well organized and have enough people busting their asses. 

[kissdbyfire]

17 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

Ok, so the right wingers were convinced that the second Nakba they have been salivating is well under way and this ceasefire will do nothing to stop it, you're not making it better.

A terror victims group appealed to the Supreme Court against the deal, but the court rejected the appeal. 

What kind of victims' group is against victims being returned home? 

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Nov 22, 12:12 PM EST
Israeli Supreme Court rejects appeal against hostage deal

Israel’s Supreme Court rejected the only appeal submitted thus far against the hostage deal, clearing the way for the deal to go through.

Israeli law requires a 24-hour waiting period after the vote before the agreement can be put into action.

It is expected that the cease-fire and the prisoner swap will begin Thursday morning

https://www.sierradailynews.com/world-news/israel-gaza-live-updates-israeli-supreme-court-rejects-appeal-against-hostage-deal/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/terror-victims-group-to-appeal-to-high-court-against-hostage-release-deal/

[GrimTuesday]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Their initial public demands after Israel responded were a ceasefire in exchange for beginning to discuss hostages and at the time they wanted thousands of people for a handful of the hostages Hamas took.

That is incorrect. From what I read, Israel demanded a complete list of all hostages (which is reasonable), to which Hamas responded they couldn't do it while under bombardment (which is also reasonable given the fragmented nature of terrorist groups). That was the initial sticking point.

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But Hamas are freedom fighters, right, and their word is solid? 

Of course Hamas is not a reliable source, they have a vested interest in pushing a specific narrative, but Israel does as well, and they are granted almost complete legitimacy and their statements are accepted with a childlike credulity.

[Tywin et al.]

8 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

That is incorrect. From what I read, Israel demanded a complete list of all hostages (which is reasonable), to which Hamas responded they couldn't do it while under bombardment (which is also reasonable given the fragmented nature of terrorist groups). That was the initial sticking point.

And yet Hamas was also able to make a quick list of thousands of people that were killed while it took Israel longer to confirm a much smaller list of their own dead.

And no, what I said is correct. The quotes are on tape. A high ranking Hamas spokesman said a ceasefire must happen (one that btw he said Hamas didn't have to respect) in order for the discussion of releasing hostages to begin. Many others called for the same thing. It is astonishing that people are so open to a process that in effect rewards Hamas for what they've done.

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Of course Hamas is not a reliable source

Then why do you keep parroting their talking points?

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but Israel does as well, and they are granted almost complete legitimacy and their statements are accepted with a childlike credulity.

Have you been reading these threads? Most posters are rejecting what Israel is saying (and tbf, they shouldn't be trusted that much, but they're more trustworthy than Hamas by a good amount). 

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

A terror victims group appealed to the Supreme Court against the deal, but the court rejected the appeal. 

What kind of victims' group is against victims being returned home? 

https://www.sierradailynews.com/world-news/israel-gaza-live-updates-israeli-supreme-court-rejects-appeal-against-hostage-deal/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/terror-victims-group-to-appeal-to-high-court-against-hostage-release-deal/

People who are opposed to those who have murdered Jews, including their loved ones, being released from prison to murder more. Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza and man behind the murder of over a thousand Israelis and kidnapping of over 200 more, was just one of the more than 1000 people who were released for a single Jew a bit over a decade ago. That said, while I sympathize with them not wanting the murderers of their loved ones out again, I think it is most important to get our loved ones back. It might incentivize more kidnappings, but our only real way to stop kidnappings is to stop them, as not Hamas isn't going to stop trying to murder and kidnap Jews either way.