Ukraine Conflict: Crimea-a-River

[Werthead]

Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Werthead

Any speculation on the political and military impact assuming all goes well and the $60 Billion military aid package is passed by the US House today?

The Russians are really pissed off about it, they think it's the difference between victory this or next year, and possibly the war being extended past their ability to fight it.

The key factor will be delivery time. Once the funding goes through, if more ammo and weapons can be deployed in weeks, Ukraine may have dodged a bullet. If it takes months and months to arrive, Ukraine could still suffer a lot in the interim.

The key point is the combination of this funding bill plus all the stuff Europe has done whilst America had its finger up its arse may actually give Ukraine enough material to mount a counter-offensive this summer, either in its own right or a spoiling counter-offensive designed to disrupt Russian plans for their own offensives.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The Russians are really pissed off about it, they think it's the difference between victory this or next year, and possibly the war being extended past their ability to fight it.

The key factor will be delivery time. Once the funding goes through, if more ammo and weapons can be deployed in weeks, Ukraine may have dodged a bullet. If it takes months and months to arrive, Ukraine could still suffer a lot in the interim.

The key point is the combination of this funding bill plus all the stuff Europe has done whilst America had its finger up its arse may actually give Ukraine enough material to mount a counter-offensive this summer, either in its own right or a spoiling counter-offensive designed to disrupt Russian plans for their own offensives.

If the Russians are pissed… I’m happy.

[SeanF]

Russell Bentley, a Texan who went out to fight for the Donetsk Peoples’ Republic in 2014, and was an enthusiastic pro-Russian YouTuber, has just had his head chopped off by Russian soldiers, who mistook him for a spy.

[Derfel Cadarn]

12 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Russell Bentley, a Texan who went out to fight for the Donetsk Peoples’ Republic in 2014, and was an enthusiastic pro-Russian YouTuber, has just had his head chopped off by Russian soldiers, who mistook him for a spy.

Apparently they raped him first and kicked him to death? Accoeding to twitter so grain of salt.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Russell Bentley, a Texan who went out to fight for the Donetsk Peoples’ Republic in 2014, and was an enthusiastic pro-Russian YouTuber, has just had his head chopped off by Russian soldiers, who mistook him for a spy.

I wouldn’t wish that on anyone.

 

[SeanF]

The House has now voted to approve the aid to Ukraine.

[Werthead]

Apparently the US military and Ukraine have been working behind the deal on what weapons and ammunition would be covered by the initial deal and this will be in Ukraine within days, not even weeks.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Apparently the US military and Ukraine have been working behind the deal on what weapons and ammunition would be covered by the initial deal and this will be in Ukraine within days, not even weeks.

:boom:

Quite literally.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Apparently the US military and Ukraine have been working behind the deal on what weapons and ammunition would be covered by the initial deal and this will be in Ukraine within days, not even weeks.

I kinda thought that would be the case.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Just now, Zorral said:

I kinda thought that would be the case.

I seem to recall the Pentagon has been using value recalculations to get more aid to Ukraine even after the last package “ran out”.  I think they’re ready to ship… just waiting for permission.

[Zorral]

6 hours ago, SeanF said:

The weird thing is MTG denouncing the Ukrainians as Nazis.

You’d expect her to think that a good thing.  After all, she herself is a Nazi.

They are Saying that even her fellow nazis in Congress are beginning to view her as beyond the pale! 

 

[williamjm]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Apparently the US military and Ukraine have been working behind the deal on what weapons and ammunition would be covered by the initial deal and this will be in Ukraine within days, not even weeks.

Presumably even before that arrives the Ukrainians might be able to use more of what they already have since they will know that there's less need to ration it if replacements are about to arrive.

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, williamjm said:

Presumably even before that arrives the Ukrainians might be able to use more of what they already have since they will know that there's less need to ration it if replacements are about to arrive.

Was just gonna say that.  

I am really happy about this. I had been very optimistic about Ukraine winning this war throughout 2023, and it was only when support floundered that I began to have a lot of doubts.  I think that assuming no disaster in the next month (unlikely) that Ukraine is past the second great danger moment (the first being the opening weeks and the possibility of the front collapsing in the South).

Even if you assume that this is the last meaningful aid package from the US, I think Ukraine has what it needs to outlast Russia.  European production is scaling up and by the end of 2024 will be prepared to match or exceed Russian capabilities.  And if Ukraine can match Russia in military gear, they have vastly better leadership, training and morale.  

There is much less chance of Europe just abandoning Ukraine the way trump wants to, because russian victory would create a massive (5 million+) refugee crisis, and European Leaders want no part in that.

Edited April 20 by Maithanet

[Altherion]

Russia has to be extremely displeased with Iran right now. Prior to that drone and missile barrage, it was a pretty safe bet that the US House of Representatives would hold up the aid to Ukraine until at least the election, but it appears that with a sufficiently blunt reminder that the world is burning, they decided to make a deal instead.

[A True Kaniggit]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Even if you assume that this is the last meaningful aid package from the US, I think Ukraine has what it needs to outlast Russia. 

I suppose whether this is true or not will depend on the results of our November elections. 
 

I’m glad we’re finally sending this long overdue aid to Ukraine. But I’m still saddened about the thousands of dead Ukrainian’s who might not have died if it wasn’t for the asshole Republicans in congress that delayed this aid for so long.

 

Edited April 20 by A True Kaniggit

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Altherion said:

Prior to that drone and missile barrage, it was a pretty safe bet that the US House of Representatives would hold up the aid to Ukraine until at least the election,

This is a classic post hoc fallacy.  Johnson was talking about doing exactly what he did well before the Iran attacks last week.  And indeed, the reason it was only brought up this week was because of other business the House was dealing with beforehand (e.g. the FISA bill).

[Werthead]

Equipment shortages on the Robotyne front had gotten so bad for the Russians that their last attack involved troops advancing over a fairly extensive amount of flat ground towards fortified positions, accompanied by a lone IFV, which was taken out by an ATGM in short order. This was after their previous "armoured assaults" involved troops riding unarmoured trucks and jumping clear when they were destroyed to advance without cover.

Both the Ukrainian defenders and Russian attackers seem utterly disbelieving that they were doing this. Russian soldiers are pushing for a halt to offensive operations on this front and just holding the line, before they run so low on men and material that the Ukrainians could just roll back over their positions (mines notwithstanding).

Ukraine disabled another S-300/S-400 complex by eliminating its radars with a HIMARS strike. This appears to be a shorter-range setup than the one they had in Crimea, but it's unclear why it was located relatively close to the front lines.

Blinken is visiting China next week. China has started to show increasing signs of scepticism over the course of the war in recent weeks, although still very moderate. Blinken might use this as an opportunity to encourage China to benefit from (very mildly) thawing US-Chinese relations to the benefit of the stalling Chinese economy and to discourage further support for Russia. Sceptical that will do much, but I guess never hurts to try.

Medvedev taking the news well.

Ukrainian soldiers were watching the vote live from trenches along the front. Lots of cheering, some guys bursting into tears. Probably the most emotional US Congress vote of all time, for these guys.

[Celestial]

Peskov: "the decision will make the USA even richer"

 

Now can Marjorie Taylor-Green shut the fuck up about US wasting money in Ukraine? There you have it, from the Russian government itself.

Edited April 20 by Celestial

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, Celestial said:

Now can Marjorie Taylor-Green shut the fuck up

Good luck on that one!

[Werthead]

Just now, DMC said:

Good luck on that one!

Even the next-most unhinged members of the MAGA-Repubs seem to think she's completely lost the plot, in a "do we need to call an ambulance here and keep sharp objects out of her hands?" kind of way. So maybe there is some hope that they can do something about her.