The Ukraine War: Casus Belgorod

[Kalbear]

Yeah, given the condemnation coming from western military and civilian leaders it's impossible for me to believe Ukraine did it. They would have coordinated messaging ahead of time if it was an op.

[ThinkerX]

Russian State Media got hacked. 

 

Apparent hack of Russian broadcast outlets results in jarring announcement of Ukrainian invasion and martial law by voice claiming to be Putin’s (msn.com)

[williamjm]

46 minutes ago, Erik of Hazelfield said:

The first is that it prevents Ukraine from using the dam bridge to cross the Dnipro, the second is that it will drown a lot of land on the left (i.e. Eastern) side of the river, making it muddy for weeks or months making it harder to move there, and the third is to keep the Ukrainian government busy with the evacuation and catastrophe response so that they can spend less time on the offensive. 

Most of the speculation about where Ukraine would counter-attack seemed to think it would be unlikely to be across the Dnipro, although perhaps the Russians thought otherwise. The third issue about diverting resources might be the biggest problem for the counter-offensive, although I would hope that the Ukrainians had planned for this eventuality.

It might also allow Russia to re-deploy some troops that were guarding against an attack across the river.

[Derfel Cadarn]

Russian victory in Belgorod!

… Just not Putin’s Russians

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Leopard tanks … agricultural vehicles … same difference!

 

[Kalbear]

9 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Leopard tanks … agricultural vehicles … same difference!

 

To be fair the Ukrainian farmer tractor corps has done incredible damage in repatriation of Russian equipment, so this was probably a pretty valuable kill

[Corvinus85]

2 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Leopard tanks … agricultural vehicles … same difference!

 

That's no ordinary harvester. It's a killer I tell you!

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Corvinus85

[Darzin]

20 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

Something I have started to wonder about...

Suppose the Russian Rebels do somehow seize control of a major Russian City or three.

Seems to me it would be a smart move on their part to immediately and aggressively restore the likes of Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and other social media platforms, all completely uncensored - and if possible, extend that uncensored content into parts of Russia they don't control. Because, right now, it seems to me that this information blackout is a major reason for minimal Russian unrest. That changes...

What is it you think is being hidden from the Russian public? Sure their media has a big propaganda spin but the basic facts are there. Russia is fighting Ukraine battles are happening at X and Y location. Sure their media doesn't report Russian loses very much and talks about every Ukrainian tank that's been blown up, but it's not like you can't assume Russian losses are happening too. They just don't care. 

[ThinkerX]

5 minutes ago, Darzin said:

What is it you think is being hidden from the Russian public? Sure their media has a big propaganda spin but the basic facts are there. Russia is fighting Ukraine battles are happening at X and Y location. Sure their media doesn't report Russian loses very much and talks about every Ukrainian tank that's been blown up, but it's not like you can't assume Russian losses are happening too. They just don't care. 

You are thinking too narrowly.

A year or more ago, most social media outlets in Russia were either banned or heavily censored.  Battlefield losses are only a small part of what is not reaching the Russian people. Open up those channels again, completely uncensored, and the entire state media apparatus is in jeopardy. Think about it: opposition figures building up massive online presence. Dirtbag officials getting called out in public. Tens of millions of ordinary people refusing to accept anything on state run media as credible and maybe acting accordingly.

Edited June 6, 2023 by ThinkerX

[Darzin]

5 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

You are thinking too narrowly.

A year or more ago, most social media outlets in Russia were either banned or heavily censored.  Battlefield losses are only a small part of what is not reaching the Russian people. Open up those channels again, completely uncensored, and the entire state media apparatus is in jeopardy. Think about it: opposition figures building up massive online presence. Dirtbag officials getting called out in public. Tens of millions of ordinary people refusing to accept anything on state run media as credible.

Social media was pretty open before the war and none of that happened. The audience for state media is boomers who want to believe what it says. Millions of Russians already don't believe state run media as credible they just don't believe anything else is credible either. The politically engaged westernized Russians you want to reach already have VPNs anyways. There is a lot less of a bubble then you think, they just don't care.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Darzin

[ThinkerX]

Just now, Darzin said:

Social media was pretty open before the war and none of that happened. The audience for state media is boomers who want to believe what it says. Millions of Russians already don't believe state run media as credible they just don't believe anything else is credible either. The politically engaged westernized Russians you want to reach already have VPNs anyways. There is a lot less of a bubble then you think they just don't care.

Until it affects them. That is the difference.

[Zorral]

No. Then they will get fired up to fight us all for what 'we've' done to 'them.'

[The Anti-Targ]

Never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence. 

Is it true or only alleged that Russia mined the dam? Highly irresponsible to mine the dam if true, but I want to believe it was incompetence / unintentional for the dam to get blown up rather than a deliberate war crime.

There was no particular need to blow the top of the dam since Russia destroyed the north end of the dam when it retreated from Kherson so that Ukraine couldn't follow anyway. The Dnipro river downstream of the dam is wide enough to be an obstacle for the counterattack, and Russia could have easily just kept the sluice gates open to increase waterflow without destroying the whole thing. So I hope it was incompetence / error because the cruelty of it being a deliberate act is a terrible thought.

I can't think of a scenario where it's a good strategic military idea for Ukraine to do it, after all Ukraine would be expecting to retake control of both the dam and the nuclear power station in this summer's counter offensive, which means not only denying water supply to existing Ukrainian territory upstream of the dam, but also denying Ukraine two sources of highly valued electricity supply.

[karaddin]

I don't know why you're extending a status quo benefit of the doubt to Russia when they've shown more than enough willingness to do whatever war crimes they think will benefit them. If the dam had randomly ruptured a week ago then that stance makes more sense to me, but when it happens the day after Ukraine start their offensive and it functions (or at least is expected) to block any serious advance across the Dnipro for a couple of weeks? 

That's enough for the default assumption to be it was deliberate until a full investigation can be completed.

Particularly when there's still plenty of room for incompetence alongside the malice, such as with the suggestion it was only meant to be a partial demolition to produce more moderate flooding that wouldn't wash away their own defensive positions and kill a bunch of their own men.

[Toth]

3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 

I can't think of a scenario where it's a good strategic military idea for Ukraine to do it, after all Ukraine would be expecting to retake control of both the dam and the nuclear power station in this summer's counter offensive, which means not only denying water supply to existing Ukrainian territory upstream of the dam, but also denying Ukraine two sources of highly valued electricity supply.

Seems like you've already stated yourself why it's in Russia's short-term interest to use the dam as a roadblock. Also the mines shouldn't have enough of a punch to crack the dam like this. There is one video from 2022 circulating where the Russians on their retreat already tried to blow it up and it barely made a dent: 

Likewise, the idea of Ukrainian artillery destroying it is even more ludicrous. The timing is just too suspicious for it to blow up the moment another retreat from the area seemed imminent and it seems that it did indeed disrupt the Ukrainian advance in the area.

Meanwhile I'm getting irritated that my other go-to thread about the war is flooded every few days with people claiming it's completely confirmed that Ukraine blew up NS2 and that there should be consequences for this, when all their sources are clickbait titles of articles that state it's still one of the leads that is being investigated, but there is still no certainty. Why is it yesterday of all things articles like this pop up once again yesterday alongside similarly clickbait-y articles with an 'expert' claiming blowing up the dam could just as well be in Ukraine's interest because they couldn't get through Russian numerical superiority or something, with the headline similarly briefly being "Expert says Ukraine could have blown up the dam", at least for a few minutes before changing it to something somewhat more neutral.

I sometimes really hate our 24h news cycle...

[Makk]

There is no doubt that Russia did it. It's a desperate move that has little military benefit outside maybe one or two weeks but is a massive ecological disaster. The river has flooded graveyards and burial grounds for slaughtered infected cattle the entire area has become unlivable for some time. I hate to think how many people couldn't evacuate in time.

I do think what they wanted more than anything else is to make people stop ignoring their nuclear saber rattling, people have stopped taking their threats to nuke them seriously and they are basically saying they are prepared to trigger a Zaporizhzhia meltdown next. I hope China and India look at this action really hard and start to wonder whether providing even minor levels of support to this psychopathic administration is a good idea.

[Loge]

2 hours ago, Toth said:

Seems like you've already stated yourself why it's in Russia's short-term interest to use the dam as a roadblock. Also the mines shouldn't have enough of a punch to crack the dam like this. There is one video from 2022 circulating where the Russians on their retreat already tried to blow it up and it barely made a dent: 

They blew up a small part of the dam, which was enough to prevent the Ukrainians from using it to cross the river. They didn't attempt to blow up the whole dam, though people feared they might. That they eventually did it therefore isn't really a surprise. 

There is footage showing an explosion in the power station. It's possible that they didn't expect that to destroy the whole dam, but it looks like that is what happened. 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Toth said:

Seems like you've already stated yourself why it's in Russia's short-term interest to use the dam as a roadblock. Also the mines shouldn't have enough of a punch to crack the dam like this. There is one video from 2022 circulating where the Russians on their retreat already tried to blow it up and it barely made a dent: 

 

Sure, but Ukraine would be able to take them starting from east of the dam, they don't need to start at or near the dam. And as one Ukraine supporting commentator says, while the Dnipro downstream of the dam has become a lot wider for a long time, the upstream part of the river will become a lot narrower and there's almost 3x the length of the upstream part to defend. It's a massive self-inflicted wound by Russia, if this is what they intended.

Russia has done a lot of awful stuff this war, but there has been method to the madness, even when it's failed. This is just madness if what had happened was what was intended. And that will be Russia's defense for all those who want to believe it "We wouldn't do this because it harms us much more than it harms Ukraine, therefore it must be Ukraine."

I said strategically it makes no sense for Ukraine to bust the dam because they want the dam to stay intact to help with post-war recovery. But tactically it has harmed Russia more than Ukraine, so if Ukraine was into short term thinking blowing the dam would be an option. Though to make the most of it they would have withdrawn all their forces from the islands on the Dnipro just before blowing the dam, but it seems those forces got taken by surprise and had to withdraw across the flood waters. And there will be conspiracy theories purporting to have hidden evidence of exactly that.

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Makk said:

There is no doubt that Russia did it. It's a desperate move that has little military benefit outside maybe one or two weeks but is a massive ecological disaster. The river has flooded graveyards and burial grounds for slaughtered infected cattle the entire area has become unlivable for some time. I hate to think how many people couldn't evacuate in time.

I do think what they wanted more than anything else is to make people stop ignoring their nuclear saber rattling, people have stopped taking their threats to nuke them seriously and they are basically saying they are prepared to trigger a Zaporizhzhia meltdown next. I hope China and India look at this action really hard and start to wonder whether providing even minor levels of support to this psychopathic administration is a good idea.

China and India can chose to believe Russia's lies, or say "unclear who's to blame, let's wait for all the facts, but it is unacceptable and we condemn this action." The US is busy trying to weaken China's power and influence in the world, that makes the enemy of the United States China's plaything. I was going to say friend, but I don't think China really sees it that way.

[Derfel Cadarn]

A subtitled interview with Prighozin. Basically he’s say Ukraine are taking territory back, it’s too late to train new conscripts, too late to use a tactical nuke, and Shoigu and Gherasimov should be shot.

 

Edited June 7, 2023 by Derfel Cadarn