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US Politics: Shutdown Showdown

Mr. Chatywin et al.

By Mr. Chatywin et al.,
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TrackerNeil Council Member

TrackerNeil

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I'm going out on a limb here about the 2023 election results, so feel free to get upset about it.

I think if voters really felt terrible about Biden, Democratic incumbents would be having a much harder time winning reelection. But they're not--Virginia Democrats did fine, and so did those in New Jersey, and of course Andy Beshear is now The Prince Who Was Promised. I can't be sure, of course, but I wonder if voters are upset with Biden not because of what he's doing, but maybe because they're still unsettled about the pandemic, and irritated about inflation, both of which are much improved since Biden took office. 

If I'm right--and I could be wrong!--what we're seeing now in Biden's approvals won't help Trump in November 2024. I suppose we will see.

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Maithanet Council Member

Maithanet

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It is hard to reconcile the fact that Biden is extremely unpopular and yet Democrats keep having great elections.  In 2010 Obama was very unpopular and the democrats got crushed.  In 2014 Obama was sorta popular (better than Biden!) and the Democrats still got crushed.  But in 2022 Biden was polling terribly and the democrats still had a decent night.  And last night Biden's numbers are the same, and Democrats did even better. 

Yes, I know that scrapping Roe v Wade is a huge factor, but Roe isn't going to come back before 2024, and I doubt very much that voters will have forgotten about it.  And this effect is showing up even in races that aren't particularly related to abortion.  NJ Democrats had a great night, and the risk of a abortion ban there is pretty remote (unless implemented at the federal level). 

Some people have speculated that it is because the Democratic coalition has changed, and now the most politically engaged voters are Democrats, which means they are punching above their weight in special elections.  But I'm not sure I buy that argument.  For one, the demographic profile of 2022 midterm voters was terrible for Democrats - they won on persuasion, not turnout.  And it doesn't explain why Democrats did so well in high turnout governor's races in 2022 and 2023.  Evers, Whitmer, and Polis all won more votes in 2022 than they did in 2018, and Democrats flipped AZ!

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Mr. Chatywin et al. Council Member

Mr. Chatywin et al.

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8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It is hard to reconcile the fact that Biden is extremely unpopular and yet Democrats keep having great elections. 

Don't overthink it. Democrats aren't liked, but they're seen as the mature party for those in the middle which can decide these tight races. Meanwhile, people are really starting to see just how crazy Republicans have become. 

Democrats will probably be fine in 2024 if Trump is the nominee and the economy is positive and helping everyday people.

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Fez Council Member

Fez

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As great as the outcome of last night was overall, there are still some warning signs for Democrats:

First of all, in Virginia Republicans won every senate district that was less than Biden+8 in 2020. In a lot of ways last night was actually pretty similar to 2021, it's just that the lines favored Democrats a bit. And yes, they won back the state house, but the district lines there were different than in 2021; overall voter preference seems pretty similar to what it had been.

And secondly, New York Democrats continued to lose ground in and around NYC. When abortion isn't on the ballot (and, in fairness, the Long Island suburbs of NYC are probably the one place left in the country where there are still a large number of pro-choice Republicans— including some of the local candidates who won last night) things can get bad quick. If Republicans are in some way able to make the economy the main focus of 2024, it'll spell big trouble.

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Kalbear Council Member

Kalbear

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Interestingly to me, in Seattle the city council races have consistently gone for the moderate or even conservative candidates, with 6 of the 9 seats open and the other 3 incumbents losing.

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kissdbyfire Council Member

kissdbyfire

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JFC.
I love Louisiana but MAGA Mike, Steve Scalise, John Kennedy are all from LA, as are the judges from the Louisiana 5th Circuit Court of Appeal. And this story is absolutely horrifying.

https://www.propublica.org/article/louisiana-judges-ignored-prisoners-petitions-without-review-fifth-circuit

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Wilbur Council Member

Wilbur

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57 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It is hard to reconcile the fact that Biden is extremely unpopular and yet Democrats keep having great elections...

...Some people have speculated that it is because the Democratic coalition has changed, and now the most politically engaged voters are Democrats, which means they are punching above their weight in special elections.  But I'm not sure I buy that argument.  For one, the demographic profile of 2022 midterm voters was terrible for Democrats - they won on persuasion, not turnout.  And it doesn't explain why Democrats did so well in high turnout governor's races in 2022 and 2023.  Evers, Whitmer, and Polis all won more votes in 2022 than they did in 2018, and Democrats flipped AZ!

I wonder if it isn't because the Trumpist Republicans sometimes forget to vote.

Our local LD4 Republican Party is tearing its hair out because they keep losing local ballots.  For instance, the local Republican Women's group went on a tear about the Scottsdale Unified School District and how terrible and woke it was over the past year, and they spent a huge percentage of the election budget to sway voters against a budget override for SUSD.  Social media around here made it seem like SUSD would not only be turned down for the extra money, but also probably tarred and feathered.

And yet they took a huge loss last night, with very small numbers of voters in what has become a Trump-oriented district.  It is a constant topic of conversation in LD4, the need to improve voter turnout, but I suspect that the new Trump Republicans doesn't make a connection between actually filling out the ballot envelope / stopping by the local polling place on the way home from work and the outcome of who or what gets elected.  If they saw it on Twitter or TV, that is good enough, no need to actually vote.

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Maithanet Council Member

Maithanet

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5 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

I wonder if it isn't because the Trumpist Republicans sometimes forget to vote.

And yet they took a huge loss last night, with very small numbers of voters in what has become a Trump-oriented district.  It is a constant topic of conversation in LD4, the need to improve voter turnout, but I suspect that the new Trump Republicans doesn't make a connection between actually filling out the ballot envelope / stopping by the local polling place on the way home from work and the outcome of who or what gets elected.  If they saw it on Twitter or TV, that is good enough, no need to actually vote.

It is absolutely true that Trump has been able to engage a certain segment of voters to turn out for him when he's on the ballot, but they haven't showed up in sufficient numbers in basically every other election since 2016.  2021 is the only exception to that, and that was before Roe got overturned. 

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Martell Spy Council Member

Martell Spy

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It is hard to reconcile the fact that Biden is extremely unpopular and yet Democrats keep having great elections.  In 2010 Obama was very unpopular and the democrats got crushed.  In 2014 Obama was sorta popular (better than Biden!) and the Democrats still got crushed.

We know Presidents get blamed for recessions. I believe this was caused by hangover from the Great Recession which was still going on as late as 2014. It hit Bush in 2006 (and rightfully so as it happened on his watch)

A lot of commentators assume the post pandemic inflation is the exact same thing. Bush got blamed, Obama got blamed, Biden will get blamed. Also, there's Carter getting blamed for the economy and inflation. And then they feel vindicated every negative Biden poll. Maybe Republicans are just failing to provide a good alternative. And there's a lot of Democratic party voters that are kind of stuck. Not just the Left. There's no where to go.

 

 

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Mindwalker Council Member

Mindwalker

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3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

One thing that is becoming more and more clear is that the best strategy for Candidate Trump and the best strategy for Defendant Trump are very much at odds with one another.  Candidate Trump embraces bullying and that the rules don't apply to me.  For a defendant in a courtroom, that is a disastrous approach.  But we're already seeing that when facing a choice between sound legal strategy and what plays well to the MAGA crowd, Trump will listen to his gut and not his lawyers.  That makes him prevailing in the courtroom less likely.  His legal strategy is increasingly boiling down to "become President and then the convictions don't matter".  Which could work, but it carries significant risks for him personally and obvious huge costs for the country as a whole (not that he gives a shit). 

Well, Defendant, Entrepreneur, and Private Person Trump always followed the "rules don't apply to me" mantra, long before any candidacy. (Tbf, he hasn't been proven wrong so far.) And I think we can assume his second candidacy might not even have occurred if he had not feared legal actions.

***

Republicans and Democrats Are Lying to You About Rashida Tlaib

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