US Politics: Shutdown Showdown

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

You didn't miss anything. I watched maybe 20 minutes or so and it was a joke. The recap I watched a bit ago basically said yawn and they're all afraid to go after Trump, which makes no sense if any of them actually wants to be the president. 

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231105-israel-security-source-claim-20000-killed-in-gaza/

Owen Jones commented on it. I wouldn't take this number to the bank but based on the sheer amount of destruction, it wouldn't surprise me. It's not like we're talking about the difference between 10k and 50k.

also,

As a rule, civilian casualties made by "us" or, "our allies" always get lowballed. Civillian casualties "they" can take credit for always get inflated. 

Ya, no.

[Kalbear]

17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You didn't miss anything. I watched maybe 20 minutes or so and it was a joke. The recap I watched a bit ago basically said yawn and they're all afraid to go after Trump, which makes no sense if any of them actually wants to be the president. 

As far as I can tell all of them are basically trying to position themselves as someone Trump voters would want to vote for if Trump has to drop out. That is their only play.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

40 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

As far as I can tell all of them are basically trying to position themselves as someone Trump voters would want to vote for if Trump has to drop out. That is their only play.

He'll drop dead before he drops out. Haley and Scott want to be VP is my guess. Ramaswamy just wants attention. Christie wants to be grenade, but he's doing a bad job at it. And who the fuck knows what DeSantis is trying to do at this point. 

[The Anti-Targ]

6 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Is it the system in Israel? I mean, I think it’s messy as hell but I didn’t think it was Israel’s system. 

 

5 hours ago, Fez said:

 

It's not. Israel uses a nationwide party closed list proportional representative system with a 3.25% electoral threshold. It's like what Spain uses for it's lower chamber, only the entire country is one giant district.

It's "the system" in a broad context in the sense that there is still a concept of 2 big parties to either side of the centre that are not supposed to form a govt together, unless for some emergency reason people think it's necessary to have a special thing called a government of national unity. If Likud and Labour had historically formed govts together rather than almost always seeing to be the one big party that cobbled together majorities by working with parties or greater or lesser extremity things might look a bit different. In the US context PR would lead to the splintering of the two parties, but they would probably remain the two biggest parties in congress. But the unwritten rule would be that you would never see R+D as a bloc forming the majority. R will always be expected to go with parties to the right or R and centre parties largely made up of former Rs. D's would likewise be expected to only work with parties to the left and centre parties of former Ds.

[Bironic]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

In the US context PR would lead to the splintering of the two parties, but they would probably remain the two biggest parties in congress. But the unwritten rule would be that you would never see R+D as a bloc forming the majority. R will always be expected to go with parties to the right or R and centre parties largely made up of former Rs. D's would likewise be expected to only work with parties to the left and centre parties of former Ds.

A lot of people in the US don't feel represented at all, which leads to frustration, anger, violence, Low voter turnout and governmental distrust. If you live in a partisan district/state your vote doesn't count much and even if you happen to be a sympathizer for the plurality party in your district/state, you have little influence because the general election isn't important since it's mostly decided at the party primary.

As I see it there would be 5-7 parties in Congress: The Green-Social Democrats(progressive left wing democrats, greens, democratic socialists), the Democrats (mainstream Dems), the Blue Dogs (Centrist, Conservative Democrats, Democratic leaning indepedents like Synema), The Republicans (Centrist, moderate Republicans like Romney), the MAGAS (self explanatory) and the Libertarians.

PR leads to various alliances between parties, depending heavily on the topic at hand. For example if abortion would come to the floor: the Green-social democrats, the democrats and the Libertarians would vote yes as a bloc, while the Blue Dogs (& maybe some Republicans) would probably be the ones that would deliver a compromise and give a majority, while the MAGAS would oppose it. In the case of a foreign military intervention there could be an alliance between the majority of Libertarians, the MAGAs and the Green-socials opposing it, while the Republicans, the Blue Dogs and the Dems would support it etc. This leads to more flexibility, more compromise, less partisanship and more actual governing and less deadlock scenarios.

[TrackerNeil]

11 hours ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

Do you actually think Tlaib was calling for the destruction of Israel?

I don't like to make mind-reading arguments, the current most famous one being Is JK Rowling a Transphobe. However, I don't think it's unreasonable for an Israeli (or anyone, really) to hear "from the river to the sea..." and wonder if the speaker is talking about the annihilation or relocation of an entire people. 

[ThinkerX]

Vague televised rumors of a major brothel network being busted in the DC area featuring sex workers imported from overseas and a client base that included a great many elected officials.

 

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

Vague televised rumors of a major brothel network being busted in the DC area featuring sex workers imported from overseas and a client base that included a great many elected officials.

 

Yup. Some outlets reporting on it. Here’s the AP’s. It will be interesting to see how this evolves. 
 

Quote

Authorities have not named the people believed to have bought services through the ring, and none of them have been charged. But Levy stressed that the investigation is in the early stages, and said that prosecutors are committed to holding accountable both those who ran the scheme and those who “fueled the demand for this ring.” 

Levy said there were possibly hundreds of clients, including government contractors with security clearances, doctors, lawyers, elected officials, military officers, professors and executives at tech companies.

 

[Fez]

7 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 

It's "the system" in a broad context in the sense that there is still a concept of 2 big parties to either side of the centre that are not supposed to form a govt together, unless for some emergency reason people think it's necessary to have a special thing called a government of national unity. If Likud and Labour had historically formed govts together rather than almost always seeing to be the one big party that cobbled together majorities by working with parties or greater or lesser extremity things might look a bit different. In the US context PR would lead to the splintering of the two parties, but they would probably remain the two biggest parties in congress. But the unwritten rule would be that you would never see R+D as a bloc forming the majority. R will always be expected to go with parties to the right or R and centre parties largely made up of former Rs. D's would likewise be expected to only work with parties to the left and centre parties of former Ds.

That's a rather odd way to describe Israel, considering that there were 10 parties that got seats in the latest election; 5 of them with at least 10 seats and Likud itself only got 32 of the 120 available (and Labor got 4). Things have gotten more polarized since 2019, but Israel historically has been well-known for having a huge number of parties that make it into the Knesset. And a lot of them don't just fall onto a left-right spectrum; e.g., there's the party for Ashkenazi Haredi, the party for Sephardic Haredi, the party for Russian-speaking Jews.

Also, 4 Prime Ministers since 2001 haven't been from Likud (or Labor), and not just the two briefly last year. From 2003 to 2009, Kadima was the dominant party in government; swapping out Likud and Labor (among other parties) as junior partners as needed.

Further, Labor and Likud have formed a government together that wasn't a "national emergency" government. After the 1984 election the math was basically impossible to make a government that didn't involve both parties, and they didn't hate each other as much back then, so they made a government.

Lastly, the most recent Likud government (pre 10/7) was the first time there was such an ideologically cohesive government. E.g, Labor governments regularly included the religious conservative parties, and Likud governments used to regularly include single-issue liberal and moderate parties.

[Mindwalker]

10 hours ago, Kalbear said:

As far as I can tell all of them are basically trying to position themselves as someone Trump voters would want to vote for if Trump has to drop out. That is their only play.

The funny thing is, even if he dropped dead, I don't think any of these clowns would get the nomination. VP, maybe. No idea who they would pick and how, but I just don't see it.

I watched about 2 minutes of Nikki Haley babbling and then switched off.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Mindwalker

[Phylum of Alexandria]

2 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

The funny thing is, even if he dropped dead, I don't think any of these clowns would get the nomination. VP, maybe. No idea who they would pick and how, but I just don't see it.

I watched about 2 minutes of Nikki Haley babbling and then switched off.

MAGA people seem to like Robo Ron, just not more than Trump. So he would likely benefit from a lucky heart attack scenario. 

[kissdbyfire]

5 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

The funny thing is, even if he dropped dead, I don't think any of these clowns would get the nomination. VP, maybe. No idea who they would pick and how, but I just don't see it.

I watched about 2 minutes of Nikki Haley babbling and then switched off.

Oh no, you missed Vivek saying a wall on the Canadian border is needed too?

 

Quote

But Vivek Ramaswamy took it one step further. “Don’t just build the wall. Build both walls,” he proclaimed. The U.S., Ramaswamy said, received more fentanyl from Canada last year than it did from Mexico. Therefore, in order to combat the opioid crisis, Ramaswamy argued, we needed to shut out Canada too.

Quote

Ramaswamy doubled down on his Northern border wall idea by noting he was the “only candidate on this stage, as far as I’m aware, who has actually visited the Northern border.” It is, he has previously argued, “wide open for invasion.”

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Visiting the Canadian border and encountering birdy and her group gang of church ladies trying to convert him to Christianity did a real number on him. I can't say whether he accepted Jebus in his heart in the end.

[Maithanet]

20 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

The funny thing is, even if he dropped dead, I don't think any of these clowns would get the nomination. VP, maybe. No idea who they would pick and how, but I just don't see it.

?  Who do you think would get the nomination if not one of them?  Don Jr?  The ballot deadline has already passed for some of the primary states, so any new entrant would have to be doing a write-in campaign. 

[Mindwalker]

11 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

?  Who do you think would get the nomination if not one of them?  Don Jr?  The ballot deadline has already passed for some of the primary states, so any new entrant would have to be doing a write-in campaign. 

No idea. Maybe a Glen Youngkin type. Or Don jr. And I'm probably wrong, but otoh, I always trust the GOP/ RNC to find a way around rules and laws.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Mindwalker

[Kalbear]

While it's nice, there is absolutely no legal or constitutional requirement that the republican candidate win the primary elections or even be part of them. They would presumably be chosen at the convention.

[kissdbyfire]

Just heard some pundits who are  never Trumper former republicans say that one of the biggest losers nationwide was Moms for Liberty. Apparently the lost bigly on school boards races everywhere. That’s some excellent news, maybe the book burning anti LGBTQIA+ madness will stop. 

[Bironic]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Oh no, you missed Vivek saying a wall on the Canadian border is needed too?

Has he specified if he wants to build it only in the contiguous USA or also on the Alaska-Canada border? And how does he solve the Hawaii conundrum, it will be hard to wall them off?

[maarsen]

21 minutes ago, Bironic said:

Has he specified if he wants to build it only in the contiguous USA or also on the Alaska-Canada border? And how does he solve the Hawaii conundrum, it will be hard to wall them off?

There are worse areas than that to attempt to wall off. Look at the St. Lawrence river that forms the boundary from Kingston to Cornwall, Ontario. Those are the Thousand Islands with some on the American side and some on the Canadian side, and then there is the First Nations reserve at Cornwall that sits in Ontario, Quebec and New York State. They don't recognize any government's authority over their land.