Ukraine War: incompetence vs fecklessness

[polishgenius]

2 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Some posts aren't showing up, others are, others are replying with screengrabs of the vanished posts.

The general gist of it is that Putin mentioned Poland 30 times in the interview, more than any other country bar Ukraine and Russia, and blamed Poland for starting WWII and for harbouring fascists, then as now (his words).

 

Cheers. I assume that means you can see at least my first post (that's what I was curious about, since some people I know can't see most of my thread). 

But yeah Putin is very clearly setting up language against Poland. It scares me tbqh. 

[Maithanet]

8 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

But yeah Putin is very clearly setting up language against Poland. It scares me tbqh. 

It's not good.  All the more reason to make sure Russia doesn't win in Ukraine.  

Also, Poland started WW2?  Hard to imagine the contortions you'd have to do to make that argument.  A lot easier to argue Britain did (they didn't, obviously, but it's easier). 

[Werthead]

Huh.

A look at the Ukrainian markings on their incoming F-16s.

 

[A True Kaniggit]

35 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It's not good.  All the more reason to make sure Russia doesn't win in Ukraine.  

Also, Poland started WW2?  Hard to imagine the contortions you'd have to do to make that argument.  A lot easier to argue Britain did (they didn't, obviously, but it's easier). 

Lol. Video game much? You've obviously never playled HoI IV as Germany.

Of course Poland should have given up Danzig to prevent WWII  !!!!

(Victim blaming of course) 

[The Anti-Targ]

Surely Putin is pulling everyone's chain. Invading Poland to kick off WW III, it's just so on the nose. This is the same Poland that's a member of both NATO and the EU, two things Ukraine isn't?

The Ukraine war might degrade the west a fair bit in hardware, but it has surely degraded Russia at least as much or more. Russia would not be ready to invade Poland for several years, and one thing that will happen post Russia winning the Ukraine war is a significant build up of military strength in most EU countries and all NATO countries.

[Werthead]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Surely Putin is pulling everyone's chain. Invading Poland to kick off WW III, it's just so on the nose. This is the same Poland that's a member of both NATO and the EU, two things Ukraine isn't?

The Ukraine war might degrade the west a fair bit in hardware, but it has surely degraded Russia at least as much or more. Russia would not be ready to invade Poland for several years, and one thing that will happen post Russia winning the Ukraine war is a significant build up of military strength in most EU countries and all NATO countries.

Putin is very good at working out what to say for maximum psychological effect and to scare people into backing down and giving him concessions. You can see him saying this repeatedly. In the past he's said insane things about Poland and never followed through (like nuking it for allowing NATO missile systems being placed there, which he then failed to follow up on years later).

However, we also made the same calculus about Ukraine and that didn't work out. The difference is that Ukraine was not in NATO and Poland is, not to mention the immense psychological guilt borne by the UK and France for not acting more decisively against Germany after it invaded Poland in WWII to ensure that they will certainly come to Poland's aid regardless of what else is going on, and both countries have their own nuclear deterrents.

So you'd assume that Putin is yanking more people's chain and raising the stakes so that people will be more eager to embrace a peace deal when it comes up. At the same time, February 2022 suggests we cannot take that as read.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Surely Putin is pulling everyone's chain. Invading Poland to kick off WW III, it's just so on the nose. This is the same Poland that's a member of both NATO and the EU, two things Ukraine isn't?

The Ukraine war might degrade the west a fair bit in hardware, but it has surely degraded Russia at least as much or more. Russia would not be ready to invade Poland for several years, and one thing that will happen post Russia winning the Ukraine war is a significant build up of military strength in most EU countries and all NATO countries.

That’s what almost everyone was saying about Ukraine.

[The Anti-Targ]

3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That’s what almost everyone was saying about Ukraine.

What, that Ukraine is a member of EU and NATO? I think the problem was people were talking too much about Ukraine joining NATO (and the EU?) and Russia didn't want a bar of that. Surely a significant reason for the Ukraine invasion was to prevent Ukraine joining NATO (and the EU?). That ship has well and truly sailed with Poland.

Not to mention Poland is logistically much harder to invade than Ukraine, esp since there is surely no way any peace deal will allow total annexation of Ukraine. There's no land border for Russia to directly invade from Russian territory.

If Putin wants to find a reason to invade Poland he will. But I think it's a massive stretch to say that the Ukraine and Poland scenarios are so similar that it's almost a given the Putin WILL go for Poland next. They are very different situations and Russia is also in a very different situation than in Feb 2022.

Edited February 11 by The Anti-Targ

[Which Tyler]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/11/donald-trump-says-he-would-encourage-russia-to-attack-nato-countries-who-dont-pay-bills

Quote

Donald Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack Nato allies who pay too little

 

[SeanF]

51 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/11/donald-trump-says-he-would-encourage-russia-to-attack-nato-countries-who-dont-pay-bills

 

The man is increasingly unhinged, and 50% of the population love him for it.

[DireWolfSpirit]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

The man is increasingly unhinged, and 50% of the population love him for it.

He's always been unhinged. Its imperative for the World that this man is stopped from getting back in the Oval.

[Bironic]

6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

What, that Ukraine is a member of EU and NATO? I think the problem was people were talking too much about Ukraine joining NATO (and the EU?) and Russia didn't want a bar of that. Surely a significant reason for the Ukraine invasion was to prevent Ukraine joining NATO (and the EU?).

That is russian propaganda. There was no majority for a NATO or EU accession in Ukraine before 2014, hell even the prowestern politicians Yushtchenko and Timochenko were split about it, and ca. 50% of the population was pro Russian. Furthermore there was never unanimous support for an Ukrainian Accession in either the EU or NATO, which is needed in both cases, look at how long it takes for Sweden to join NATO, and unlike Sweden in the case of Ukraine there are/were several good reasons and countries that would have never allowed it. EU and NATO Accession was never a realistic scenario. When "lame duck" G. W. Bush proposed such a scheme in 2008 both France and Germany as well as many other countries opposed it. EU Accession is probably even harder, given that the balkan states (Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Northern Macedonia, Bosnia & herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova) Turkey and Georgia all tried to become members and so far almost no progress has been made in that regard. Rich western countries don't want to pay for poor, corrupt, instable eastern countries, it's as simple as that (Mexico, Cuba and Guatemala would also never be accepted as 51 state, hell not even Puerto Rico is).

Putin wants to restore the Russian Empire and return Russia to its former greatness and strength. He said multiple times that  the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 was the biggest catastrophe of the 20th Century, which is a remarkable statement in a Century that featured two World Wars... In 2021 he (or his Ghostwriter) published a lengthy explanation of why Ukraine is actually Russia, I recommend to read it, it is available in English. He doesn't view Ukraine as a Nation separate from Russia and doesn't accept their existence as an independent state. He has often remarked what happened with several leaders that were displaced by (colour) revolutions such as Milosevic. He doesn't want to end like that. The existence of a somewhat free and democratic "russian" state (Ukraine) belies his propaganda that the russian soul/people is somehow different from "western" democracy and can't function in that way. In a similar way that the existence of a democratic China (Taiwan) threatens the authoritarian China (PRC).

[The Anti-Targ]

The point is the current non-membership of NATO and the EU were there as propaganda tools for making a move in Ukraine, plus all the crap about Ukraine being a mere province of Russia. These things don't apply to Poland.

[Loge]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The point is the current non-membership of NATO and the EU were there as propaganda tools for making a move in Ukraine, plus all the crap about Ukraine being a mere province of Russia. These things don't apply to Poland.

Russia may not claim Poland as a province (though large chunks of it belonged to the Russian empire), but definitely a client state with limited sovereignty. Thus the 2021 ultimatum for NATO to pull back to its 1997 borders.

[Bironic]

I don’t think Poland is in any imminent danger atm. This will change if one or several of the following criteria are met: Ukraine is under control of Russia, the US pulls out of NATO, the US is in a prolonged fullblown war with  China. 

I mean if you want to restore the Russian Empire, the „third Rome“, the Soviet Empire, Panslavism etc. Poland is clearly on the menu… 

but the fact that the invasion of Ukraine hasn’t really gone according to plan, will probably restrain Putin from going further, alas as the Ukrainians have learnt to their detriment there is no guarantee to that though…

[The Anti-Targ]

Having said what I said, fear-mongering over Putin trying to take Poland next is a great motivator for Ukraine's support countries to stay committed to not letting Putin take Ukraine / take any more of Ukraine that isn't already under firm Russian control.

This recent rhetoric from Trump about letting Russia do what it wants to NATO countries who are not paying their way, is that directed squarely at Poland and a not very coded message that Trump would let Putin walk straight into Poland? Is Poland not pulling its weight in NATO?

[Bironic]

No Poland is one of around 7 NATO countries that commits 2% of GDP or more to the military budget, so they are pulling their weight in NATO... (they have done so for a long time, so that's not something new)

Would Trump let Putin walk into Poland? almost certainly. He gets most of his money from Russia (aka Putin) and admires/fears/loves the guy. He doesn't give a rats ass about poland, america first, the world last.

I don't really think it's fearmongering if you say that Poland could be attacked further down the line if the post 1945 world order collapses. And I think if you make the argument that Poland is in imminent danger right now if we don't give weapons to Ukraine, you lose credibility imho rather than furthering Ukraines cause.

Edited February 11 by Bironic

[The Anti-Targ]

Now we're introducing a new twist in the narrative: Poland is under threat if the post-1945 [Western hemisphere] world order collapses. That doesn't happen automatically if Ukraine loses the war. So if the calculus for Russia as a clear and present danger to Poland means Ukraine completely loses the war and becomes totally annexed by Russia (which is a long way from happening), AND NATO disbands with every European member taking an every country for themselves stance even while most European NATO countries are in the EU, then those are some very big outcomes before Russia has a rational pathway to Poland's invasion.

It's right though that the rhetoric on the threat to Poland needs to be finely tuned so as to firm up the resolve of Ukraine's support countries but not discredit PR machine tasked with keeping up the support for Ukraine.

[Kalbear]

It is not clear to me if NATO can survive effectively if the US is not a real part of it. In theory it can, but it would require defensive spending and prioritization of the nations of Europe well beyond what they have done in the past, along with a lot more resolve than they have shown more recently. 

It really isn't hard to imagine the US leaving and then countries like France and the UK having their own trumpiness come up and all of them saying to the baltics or Poland welp, sucks to be you. It's honestly hard to imagine almost any western European nation willing to go to an active war if they can just avoid it.

[ThinkerX]

Russia is unlikely to be in shape to invade any other country for several decades regardless of whether they win the war in Ukraine. The war has accelerated their ongoing demographic catastrophe, which combined with sanctions, an aging and incompetent leadership, and severe economic issues puts them in bad shape.