Ukraine: Ongoing…

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Do we have any indication that this claim is genuine?  The Russians are claiming they destroyed a Patriot Missile battery?

 

[Maithanet]

The Russians launched a huge number of missiles from different angles/elevation/type in an attempt to overwhelm air defenses around Kyiv.  The target is believed to be air defenses.  Russians are claiming that they succeeded, no confirmation yet.  There are videos that indicate at least one Russian missile hit a ground target.  If the target was a patriot battery, it was likely destroyed.

Edit: allow me to be clearer.  A patriot battery is several components, and destroying one does not destroy the entire system.  If a piece was hit, that piece is likely destroyed, but the overall battery should still be operable, assuming the Ukrainians were following procedures/precautions.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Maithanet

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Besides the Russians have already destroyed all the Ukrainian HIMARS system 3-4 times over.

Ukraine probably wouldn't admit to losing a (part of) a patriot system, unless they felt they could get a few more in return. 

 

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Besides the Russians have already destroyed all the Ukrainian HIMARS system 3-4 times over.

Ukraine probably wouldn't admit to losing a (part of) a patriot system, unless they felt they could get a few more in return.

For the third party observer it is basically impossible to determine with certainty what, if any, part of the Patriot battery was hit.  Russian claims are worth less than paper, and the Ukrainians have a law against photographing Russian strikes.  So all we have is the Ukrainians word, and at the moment, that is "no comment."  Which IMO indicates that the Russians hit something, but whether it was something important or not, who knows. 

[3CityApache]

Some media report unofficially, that after the death of Belarussian foreign affairs minister, Lukashenka - apparently fearing he might be next - was trying to determine if it would be possible for him to flee to Poland by train or car, and then fly from Warsaw to some friendly African country, Venezuela or China. Not sure if it's reliable, the sources were anonymous.

[3CityApache]

2 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

Some media report unofficially, that after the death of Belarussian foreign affairs minister (who officially died from heart attack, but there were speculations of poisoning), Lukashenka - apparently fearing he might be next - was trying to determine if it would be possible for him to flee to Poland by train or car, and then fly from Warsaw to some friendly African country, Venezuela or China. Not sure if it's reliable, the sources were anonymous.

 

Bugger. Typed quote instead of edit, apologies.

Edited May 16, 2023 by 3CityApache

[Gorn]

Easiest way to know is to watch the next Russian missile strike on Kyiv (and unfortunately, there will be a next strike). If their missiles suddenly start going through and hitting targets in major numbers, something important was hit. If they don't, it wasn't.

[kiko]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

For the third party observer it is basically impossible to determine with certainty what, if any, part of the Patriot battery was hit.  Russian claims are worth less than paper, and the Ukrainians have a law against photographing Russian strikes.  So all we have is the Ukrainians word, and at the moment, that is "no comment."  Which IMO indicates that the Russians hit something, but whether it was something important or not, who knows. 

The pictures on the internet show no secondary explosions. Not sure what was hit, but I guess not a missile launcher. And the radar is hopefully well protected. 

[Werthead]

Unofficial US military sources have indicated one component of the Patriot was damaged, possibly by falling debris rather than a direct hit. The Kinzhal terminal closing velocity means hitting the missile too close to the impact point turns one projectile into many (albeit with the explosive charge pre-detonated), so you're turning a bomb into a shotgun blast at fairly close range; preferable but something is probably still going to be hit. The previous six successful intercepts were all at a more extended range.

It looks like Russia may have used a combination of missile types to try to overwhelm the Patriot's radar system. That likely failed - a modern Patriot can track hundreds of incoming tracks, not just eighteen - but they may have stretched the Patriot's ammunition capacity and forced a late-stage intercept. It looks like the US are pretty impressed by both Patriot's performance and the Ukrainian handling of Patriot, making arguments to give them another several batteries more convincing. With half a dozen batteries working in concert, Russia would need to assemble many dozens of hypersonics to even have a chance of hitting the city, which is beyond their current, immediate technical capacity.

This is not a particularly stunning surprise as the Kinzhal is only very arguably a hypersonic missile, basically being just an air-launched Iskander with a final closing velocity that peaks at under Mach 5. Ironically, the Russians hyping the shit out of it as an amazing wunderweapon means them getting blown out of the sky is now a bigger headline than it actually is.

Something that went much more under the radar this week has been footage of US-made Switchblade kamikaze drones taking out GRAD launchers and vehicles in several areas of the front, and the first confirmed deployment of Ukrainian ADM-160B MALD standoff decoys, where a fairly inexpensive drone can dummy the radar profile of a helicopter or larger attack drone and attracts AA fire. The Ukrainians used several to attract Russian AA fire around Luhansk City and then hit a Russian military command post in middle of the city.

[Makk]

The patriot system is getting priceless field testing at the moment. You can shoot down your own missiles to test but getting to try it out against the real things with opposition tactics to provide counter measures just cant be replicated. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Two Hundred Thousand Russian dead in Ukraine… 100,000 Russian dead in Ukraine in less than 6 months this year…

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Putin apparently not very happy that his undefeatable missiles are being shot down. The scientists who made them have been arrested for treason

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-russia-will-be-exceptionally-concerned-as-ukraine-shoots-down-putins-undefeatable-ballistic-missile-12541713?postid=5927755#liveblog-body

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Two Hundred Thousand Russian dead in Ukraine… 100,000 Russian dead in Ukraine in less than 6 months this year…

One real point of contention in estimating Russian KIA is the ratio of killed to wounded soldiers.  With good medical care the US achieved 8 to 1 ratios of wounded to killed for its soldiers in Afghanistan.  Obviously this is really important for maintaining morale - soldiers really like it when the military is doing everything it can to save their lives. 

A wounded to killed ratio of 3 to 1 is more common in many other armies, and that has often been used as the rule of thumb in Ukraine.  But many commentators insist that is dramatically overestimating Russian frontline medical capabilities, and that the number killed is actually much higher.  Some estimates have even been as high as 1 to 1 killed to wounded.  Threads like this make that sound very possible:

 

[Corvinus85]

38 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Putin apparently not very happy that his undefeatable missiles are being shot down. The scientists who made them have been arrested for treason

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-russia-will-be-exceptionally-concerned-as-ukraine-shoots-down-putins-undefeatable-ballistic-missile-12541713?postid=5927755#liveblog-body

A dictator needs his scapegoats. 

[SpaceChampion]

Why do their medical personnel look like chefs??  "Meat's back on the menu, boys!" 

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Putin apparently not very happy that his undefeatable missiles are being shot down. The scientists who made them have been arrested for treason

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-russia-will-be-exceptionally-concerned-as-ukraine-shoots-down-putins-undefeatable-ballistic-missile-12541713?postid=5927755#liveblog-body

They were arrested last year, I think on a suspicion that they were selling secret information to China. It has nothing to do with Kinzhals being shot down.

[Zorral]

I’ve never seen the Kremlin so rattled
By Anna Nemtsova
May 17, 2023 at 7:15 a.m. EDT

Never good tidings in a war (though it often is the case, even, at times, in the War of the Rebellion here in the US back in the 19th C):

... the three principle Russian forces in Bakhmut — the Wagner Group, Kadyrov’s Chechen militias, and the regular army — are openly feuding with each other as Ukrainian troops advance. ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/17/rattled-kremlin-ukraine-psychological-warfare/

Quote

 

. . . . The sense of confusion at the highest ranks of the Kremlin is boosting the chances that Kyiv’s counteroffensive will succeed. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a longtime Prigozhin ally, has now appeared to break with the Wagner chief, harshly criticizing his threats to withdraw from the front. As a result, the three principle Russian forces in Bakhmut — the Wagner Group, Kadyrov’s Chechen militias, and the regular army — are openly feuding with each other as Ukrainian troops advance.

Meanwhile, Putin has conspicuously failed to explain to the public how his security forces failed to prevent two drones from reaching the Kremlin and neglected to thwart the car-bomb attack on a key Russian warmonger, Zakhar Prilepin.

Former Putin speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov told me that the Kremlin is “shaking.”

None of this, of course, guarantees that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will be a success. For the time being, though, Kyiv has every right to congratulate itself on the effectiveness of its psychological war against Putin’s regime.

 

 

[Toth]

18 hours ago, Maithanet said:

One real point of contention in estimating Russian KIA is the ratio of killed to wounded soldiers.  With good medical care the US achieved 8 to 1 ratios of wounded to killed for its soldiers in Afghanistan.  Obviously this is really important for maintaining morale - soldiers really like it when the military is doing everything it can to save their lives. 

A wounded to killed ratio of 3 to 1 is more common in many other armies, and that has often been used as the rule of thumb in Ukraine.  But many commentators insist that is dramatically overestimating Russian frontline medical capabilities, and that the number killed is actually much higher.  Some estimates have even been as high as 1 to 1 killed to wounded.  Threads like this make that sound very possible:

This... explains quite a lot what I witnessed last week. I have the (probably quite unhealthy) habit to occasionally check videos posted of combat in Ukraine to get a vague grasp on how things are being fought out. Last week alone there were FOUR videos uploaded on Reddit where you can see wounded Russian soldiers immediately after going down taking their rifle to their chin and pull the trigger. Some of those were amidst combat situation where you'd somehow think they have been brainwashed so much, they wanted to avoid capture at all costs. But half of those were of those where Russian soldiers got a leg hurt by a drone dropped grenade in their own trench. You'd think it would be fairly simple to pull them out and give them medical treatment, but even there, immediate suicide when getting wounded. It's ludicrous. It's absurdity. It's quite harrowing to see.

Another video from last year also burned itself into my mind, this one was posted from the Russian side. There you saw officers walking through the apocalyptic wreckage of an ammo dump after a HIMARS attack and there were still wounded begging for help left and right. They barely paid attention to them, essentially stating that they were beyond saving anyway.

Judging scenes and reports like this, I just have to think those ridiculous casualty numbers are more believable than not. This army, this damned country is just shambolic.

[Maithanet]

4 hours ago, Toth said:

This... explains quite a lot what I witnessed last week. I have the (probably quite unhealthy) habit to occasionally check videos posted of combat in Ukraine to get a vague grasp on how things are being fought out.

Be careful.  As you probably know, you can get PTSD just from watching videos like that. 

[Toth]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Be careful.  As you probably know, you can get PTSD just from watching videos like that. 

I know, but I'm not watching it for the horror aspect. I am very aware of how detached I am to the stuff depicted. I just find it very grounding to remind myself that these people are going through hell out there while we are spectating at the sidelines, debating the political repercussions of weapons deliveries and then moving on with our lives. Even though without the deterrence of NATO and nukes, this could have easily been our war.