Will Doran end up ruining Dorne?

[Craving Peaches]

By 'ruin' I mean cause lots of Dornish people to die. I have seen people say that Doran, who until now has kept Dorne out of fighting, will eventually join the fray as part of his vengeance plan and it will just cause innocent people to suffer in the end. I agree. When Doran does his whole 'Fire and Blood' speech, it just seems like it will not end well, especially given how Ellaria talks about the endless destructive cycle of vengeance beforehand. To be clear, I am not saying it was wrong for Doran to want justice for Elia and her children, and it was understandable that he wanted revenge, however as Ellaria points out, all the perpetrators are dead, and killing more (innocent) people is not going to give the dead any rest or bring them back. I feel like Doran will throw away the peace Dorne has for revenge-based motives and it will end badly. Having said that, Dornish people would probably die anyway because they all really seem to want war for some reason...

Edited June 8, 2023 by Craving Peaches

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

What's to ruin? The place is a mess.

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

What's to ruin? The place is a mess.

It is but also so far they have kept out of any war so avoided negative consequences of such.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

By 'ruin' I mean cause lots of Dornish people to die. I have seen people say that Doran, who until now has kept Dorne out of fighting, will eventually join the fray as part of his vengeance plan and it will just cause innocent people to suffer in the end. I agree. When Doran does his whole 'Fire and Blood' speech, it just seems like it will not end well, especially given how Elia talks about the endless destructive cycle of vengeance beforehand. To be clear, I am not saying it was wrong for Doran to want justice for Elia and her children, and it was understandable that he wanted revenge, however as Elia points out, all the perpetrators are dead, and killing more (innocent) people is not going to give the dead any rest or bring them back. I feel like Doran will throw away the peace Dorne has for revenge-based motives and it will end badly. Having said that, Dornish people would probably die anyway because they all really seem to want war for some reason...

No so far their surgical strike option with the viper failed as did quentyn.

The sand snake option will end up a mess too...a running theme seems to be plans go awry.

They aloa seem.to be less and less focused on revenge without hurting innocents thus all out war is becomming more of a real possibility, esp wheb you add in their enemies (tyrells and lannisters) are in disaray.

[Ser Arthurs Dawn]

Do you mean Ellaria? ♥♥ I think the biggest reason Doran is so cautious and careful is because he wants to protect Dorne. He's going for options that won't bring destruction to his people. I'm of the opinion that they will actually come out of this still intact, for the most part. Doran and Arianne finally communicated their griefs, frustrations, and plans with each other. By doing this, they both admitted their mistakes and they chose to trust each other. Ellaria's speech was directed at the Sand Snakes, because the SS wanted to bring harm to innocent people. However, they resolve that as well. At this point, everyone is pretty much on the same page. Perhaps one of the SS does end up ruining the plan by harming the wrong person, but I would pin that on them and not on Doran. I believe that at this point, he is working to remove House Lannister from power.

[Craving Peaches]

19 minutes ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

Do you mean Ellaria? ♥♥

Yes 

[James Arryn]

If it’s just him and fAegon and the GC, you’d probably be right in wondering why some version of approximately this wasn’t available earlier with Viserys. I guess you could say that, Greyjoy Rebellion aside the crown had never been this vulnerable or distracted. I’m still open to being impressed by Doran, but for now he seems to be an exercise in paralysis by analysis, surrounded by a family who don’t seem to think beyond their next spear thrust. 

[Castellan]

12 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Doran ... seems to be an exercise in paralysis by analysis, surrounded by a family who don’t seem to think beyond their next spear thrust. 

That's about it.

 

[Nevets]

18 hours ago, James Arryn said:

If it’s just him and fAegon and the GC, you’d probably be right in wondering why some version of approximately this wasn’t available earlier with Viserys. I guess you could say that, Greyjoy Rebellion aside the crown had never been this vulnerable or distracted. I’m still open to being impressed by Doran, but for now he seems to be an exercise in paralysis by analysis, surrounded by a family who don’t seem to think beyond their next spear thrust. 

The problem is, times were good.  The realm was at peace and there appears to have been wide prosperity as well.  Any rebellion is going to have difficulty succeeding because no one wants a change in those circumstances.  You will need overwhelming force and someone solid to be leader.  Doran had neither.  Once Robert dies and Ned is arrested, the political climate is more favorable.  But then his plans were upended by Viserys's demise.

If Dorne comes to harm it will most likely be due to the actions of the Sand Snakes, who still seem out for revenge, with innocents possibly in the line of fire.  Another possibility is if Quentyn's mission becomes known.

[BlackLightning]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

The problem is, times were good.  The realm was at peace and there appears to have been wide prosperity as well.  Any rebellion is going to have difficulty succeeding because no one wants a change in those circumstances.  You will need overwhelming force and someone solid to be leader.  Doran had neither.  Once Robert dies and Ned is arrested, the political climate is more favorable.  But then his plans were upended by Viserys's demise.

If Dorne comes to harm it will most likely be due to the actions of the Sand Snakes, who still seem out for revenge, with innocents possibly in the line of fire.  Another possibility is if Quentyn's mission becomes known.

By the time Quentyn's mission becomes known, his death will become known

And by that time, Daenerys will be halfway on her way back to Westeros

[SeanF]

I think the direct line of the Martells (and the Sand Snakes) will ultimately be consumed by their quest for vengeance and Arianne’s overweening ambition.

[James West]

He already has.  Revenge is never a good motive for governing.  Another way to explain this is it is never good to govern when the desire is revenge.  The same criticism applies to Jon.  Just look what revenge led Jon to do.  He murdered Janos.  That act was the beginning of the downwards slide to disaster for Jon and the watch.  Doran is doing the same thing but taking it slowly.  Sending an inadequate son to do a man's job and making big offers they cannot back up was dumb.  The son was a weak boy who went as far as trying to steal dragons.  Jon and Quentin deserved what they received and got their comeuppance.  Doran's day is coming.  

[Craving Peaches]

13 minutes ago, James West said:

He murdered Janos.

No he did not. He, as Lord Commander of the Watch, lawfully executed Janos for repeated insubordination. We are literally IN JON'S HEAD when this occurs so we know it wasn't for revenge, but to keep the Watch stable, by preventing Janos from continuing to plot and undermine him. This is right there in the text.

Quote

"As you will." Jon nodded to Iron Emmett. "Please take Lord Janos to the Wall—"

—and confine him to an ice cell, he might have said. A day or ten cramped up inside the ice would leave him shivering and feverish and begging for release, Jon did not doubt. And the moment he is out, he and Thorne will begin to plot again.

—and tie him to his horse, he might have said. If Slynt did not wish to go to Greyguard as its commander, he could go as its cook. It will only be a matter of time until he deserts, then. And how many others will he take with him?

"—and hang him," Jon finished.

It is spelled out right there for you. In the actual book. If you care to read it.

[Curled Finger]

I think Doran may have missed the point in his opportunity for revenge and a peaceful outcome.  Tywin and Gregor Clegane are dead.  Perhaps he should have sent Arianne to Mereen to seduce Dany.  That might have gone better.  Oberyn was powerful and impressive.  Certainly he was the best weapon Dorne had.  All else seems to be well, lesser, as Arianne and her cousins are not Oberyn.  As opportunity appears in the form of Aegon and Dany, Doran seems to sort of take this as signs.  Sending Quentyn wasn't a bad idea at all, though it's clear someone like Oberyn would have been a far more effective choice.  Likewise, Arianne appears to be Doran's only candidate for connecting with Aegon though she's already shown herself to be impulsive and a poor judge of character and politics.  Still, who else has Doran got but the future ruler of Dorne to entrust with this mission?  Poor old guy is really in a tough spot and because his options are so limited to B players this will not turn out well at all for Dorne.   Why the deaths of Tywin and Gregor didn't satisfy him I don't understand.  Perhaps Doran's is a story about blindness and all his children will have to die before he realizes he had his revenge?   

I am unclear what the consequences for Dorne with actually be.   Civil unrest leading to new management?  I can't see any of the powers that be; Lannisters, Tyrells, Stannis or Aegon invading Dorne.  What would be the point?  Thus, consequences would have to be internal or some catastrophe involving Euron, which all the coastal regions will likely suffer.   

[Damsel in Distress]

Doran's assets are the highly emotional Sand Snakes.  It won't go well for them.  They will side with another emotional ally in Young Aegon.  It is not looking good for the family. 

[DerrickOlley]

On 6/9/2023 at 12:00 AM, Craving Peaches said:

It is but also so far they have kept out of any war so avoided negative consequences of such.

I think they followed the right strategy! Away from the war, and this helped them a lot!

[Craving Peaches]

9 minutes ago, DerrickOlley said:

I think they followed the right strategy! Away from the war, and this helped them a lot!

That's what I am saying. They have been following the right strategy but Doran is going to throw it all away because of his thirst for vengeance...

[CassDarry]

10 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

That's what I am saying. They have been following the right strategy but Doran is going to throw it all away because of his thirst for vengeance...

I think definitely,

Dorne won't be the same Dorne at the end of the story I feel.

[Darth Sidious]

Doran is not the only one. Some in the Martell family want to war directly with the Lannisters. Many in Dorne share that wish. The only one who wants a better policy is Ellaria. 

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

On 6/10/2023 at 7:52 AM, James West said:

He already has.  Revenge is never a good motive for governing.  Another way to explain this is it is never good to govern when the desire is revenge.  The same criticism applies to Jon.  Just look what revenge led Jon to do.  He murdered Janos.  That act was the beginning of the downwards slide to disaster for Jon and the watch.  Doran is doing the same thing but taking it slowly.  Sending an inadequate son to do a man's job and making big offers they cannot back up was dumb.  The son was a weak boy who went as far as trying to steal dragons.  Jon and Quentin deserved what they received and got their comeuppance.  Doran's day is coming.  

This is just ignorant shit