Ukraine 31: Icarus Edition

[Werthead]

Russia has (probably) attempted to sabotage the Finland-Estonia gas connector pipeline. The attempt seems to have not been entirely successful, and the Finnish response was simply, "We expected something like this much sooner."

Russia has launched an attempt to capture Avdiivka, on the north-west flank of Donetsk City. This is a major thorn on that front and Russia has launched many previous attempts to retake it. Ukraine reports it is holding the town itself but some indications that Russia has made some headway to the north-west. One armoured column was advancing on the town when the lead driver decided it would be a splendid idea to drive off the road and into a river, causing severe confusion.

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Werthead

[Corvinus85]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

 

 

That is not a bridge made for armored vehicles. 

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, Corvinus85 said:

That is not a bridge made for armored vehicles. 

That's only nominally a bridge at all. This is why you never rely on Satnav alone.

[Wilbur]

Perun's excellent summary of the Ukrainian offensive so far:

 

[Toth]

So the Avdiivka assault was a massive shit show, there are videos going around looking like first day footage with stupidly long columns of Russian vehicles getting blown up as they sit there in single file. Ukraine claims 34 tanks and 91 other vehicles destroyed in 24 hours, which... seems slightly inflated, but the videos and general tone of the posts indicate they indeed lost a ridiculous number of stuff. How that about Putin's order to not loose any more territory until May? I'd thought the Russians would for once take that as an order to do the sensible thing and keep hiding behind their mine fields.

[Bironic]

There was a Ukraine defense contact group meeting (Ramstein group) yesterday at NATO HQ in Brussels with zelensky showing up for a surprise visit, also charles q brown the new US joint chiefs of staff was at the meeting for the first time.

After several months during which Belgium repeatedly declared that their F-16 are not in a flightworthy condition and thus can't be sent to Ukraine, they have now agreed that some of them can be sent to Ukraine once they have enough F-35 to replace them, which will happen 2025 according to their defense minister.

The US weapons sent to Ukraine come from the Presidential drawdown authority, which if I understand correctly are not subject to authorization by Congress and thus probably not subjected to an eventual government shutdown (maybe somebody with better understanding of US laws and procedures may clarify).

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraine-president-zelenskyy-nato-defense-ministers-meeting-seeking-103884402

https://apnews.com/article/nato-ukraine-zelenskyy-war-russia-us-1d22ae0a2315c2377af0a241e7950f1d

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22613

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_Defense_Contact_Group

[Wilbur]

Because the Russian Olympic Committee appear to be ambulatory dildos, they claimed Ukrainians as Russian athletes, and the IOC has suspended them.

IOC suspends Russian Olympic Committee after it tried to claim Ukrainian athletes for Russia (yahoo.com)

[Bironic]

In another positive note Belgium will set up a Fonds in which the Belgian tax(25%)on the earnings of the money frozen from the Russian central bank (ca. 125 billion dollars) will flow into. These taxes amount to 1.7 billion for 2023 and the fund will go 100% to Ukraine. Janet yellen from the USA treasury has approved the idea, so there is a reasonable chance that other western countries will set up similar schemes. There are a total of 280-300 billion dollars frozen from the Russian central bank in western countries: 125 in Belgium, another 75 in the rest of the EU and another 80-100 billions in other western countries. 
To their decision to send F 16 from Belgium, there is the caveat that the final say in that matter will belong to the new government after the elections in may next year…

Belgium which is the center of the international diamond trade is also setting up a method to track the origins of diamonds so that Russian diamonds can be identified.

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Bironic

[Wilbur]

It looks like the Ukrainian pilots will be down at Morris Air National Guard station near Tucson, rather than at the huge Davis-Montham AFB in the southeast of Tuscon or over Luke AFB in the West Valley.

Ukrainian pilots expected to start F-16 training in Arizona next week - POLITICO

I wonder if they are segregating them from the USAF regular operations for some reason?  I know nothing about the arrangements, it just seems odd for them to be in the tiny Air National Guard facility at the Tucson International Airport rather than the enormous USAF training and maintenance facilities in the Valley or down in Tucson.

[Tongue Stuck to Wall]

5 hours ago, Wilbur said:

It looks like the Ukrainian pilots will be down at Morris Air National Guard station near Tucson, rather than at the huge Davis-Montham AFB in the southeast of Tuscon or over Luke AFB in the West Valley.

Ukrainian pilots expected to start F-16 training in Arizona next week - POLITICO

I wonder if they are segregating them from the USAF regular operations for some reason?  I know nothing about the arrangements, it just seems odd for them to be in the tiny Air National Guard facility at the Tucson International Airport rather than the enormous USAF training and maintenance facilities in the Valley or down in Tucson.

Morris is where the USAF has been training international student pilots (mostly from NATO countries) on the F-16 since the 80's, I believe.

[Werthead]

Putin has proposed that Russia host Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations. However, Armenia and Azerbaijan are already discussing formats for negotiations and both have rejected Russia as an interlocutor. Armenia wants Germany to act as mediator, Azerbaijan wants Turkey and both sides seem to be moving to a possible compromise, which excludes Russia.

Wagner mercenaries have been offered contracts by Hamas to fight in the Gaza Strip. They are "considering" the offer (note: they are not considering the offer).

The new Russian offensive completely stalled out on the southern front of Avdiivka, but made some headway on the western side of the town. The Russians are still trying to force a breakthrough but Telegram reports are gloomy: the operation required them to take the town hard and fast before Ukrainian reinforcements could be committed. Because the reinforcements have already arrived, they now have low expectations.

Meanwhile, Russia's Tatarstan oblast is...planning to colonise the moons of Jupiter.

What?

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

58 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Meanwhile, Russia's Tatarstan oblast is...planning to colonise the moons of Jupiter.

What?

While… kinda cool… does Russia have the ability to get people to the Galilean moons in a quarter century?

[Ran]

I see a real big problem with their plan...

Quote

ALL THESE WORLDS
ARE YOURS EXCEPT
EUROPA
ATTEMPT NO
LANDING THERE
USE THEM TOGETHER
USE THEM IN PEACE

 

[Bironic]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

While… kinda cool… does Russia have the ability to get people to the Galilean moons in a quarter century?

Maybe they launch the 3 day special space operation ?

On a more serious note: according to US sources North Korea has supplied ca. 1000 containers of ammo and weapons via ship to russia, where they were loaded into a train that has now reached the sea of azov...

In the meantime Boeing-Saab have said that they are on track to meet the government timeline to deliver the newly developed GLSDB (Ground launched small diameter bomb) to Ukraine. First promised to Ukraine in February 2023, in June they had to postpone(due to production/technical and development issues) and said they will not be operational before fall. From what I gather the timeline is now either fall or winter. This weapon system can be fired from its own launcher or from HIMARS/MLRS launchers and will almost double their range to 150 km (Himars has a max. range of 84-92 km).

[SpaceChampion]

3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

While… kinda cool… does Russia have the ability to get people to the Galilean moons in a quarter century?

No.

 

I wonder if it's some sort of flag of convenience thing.  Some fly by night company needed a regulatory body to approve whatever it is they're selling and settled on Tatarstan as most willing to provide the cover.

Edited October 14, 2023 by SpaceChampion

[Corvinus85]

9 hours ago, Werthead said:

Meanwhile, Russia's Tatarstan oblast is...planning to colonise the moons of Jupiter.

What?

 

I don't recall James S.A. Corey predicting this.

8 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

While… kinda cool… does Russia have the ability to get people to the Galilean moons in a quarter century?

They couldn't land an unmanned probe on the Moon just a few months ago.

[Derfel Cadarn]

1 hour ago, Corvinus85 said:

I don't recall James S.A. Corey predicting this.

They couldn't land an unmanned probe on the Moon just a few months ago.

An imperialist lie! The probe did indeed land on the moon, at a speed that defied expectations!

[Werthead]

Telegram channels saying that the attack on Avdiivka has been called off, the sheer volume of Russian casualties sustained in a short period of time was too high. Unclear if that is actually happening or conjecture.

Some suggestions that Russia mounted a surprise offensive in the Svatove direction, but the Ukrainians were not caught off guard and instead inflicted heavy losses on the attackers. The Russians apparently used troops newly arrived from Tatarstan who were supposed to go onto a defensive footing for additional training and were instead fed directly into the grinder.

[Bironic]

According to UK intelligence and Ukrainian politicians Russia has started building a new Railway that will connect the existing Railway line between Volnovakha and Mariupol with Taganrog in russia, from where there is a connection to Rostov na Don and the rest of the russian railway network. This new railway will then continue from Mariupol to Berdyansk and from there to Melitopol. Essentially doubling the existing connector between crimea and russia. It will be further removed from the frontlines so even in the case the Ukrainians gain control around tokmak, russia could still transport troops from and towards crimea without using the crimean bridge. Apparently they mostly use civilian contractors to build the railway, and not their own railway troops. Since both civilian and military logistics in russia are dependent on railways, this line if finished would be a massive improvement on russian military logistics, which so far have been one of the main weaknesses of the russian military. I have no idea how fast they can build such a railway and I assume Ukraine will try to disrupt the construction using long range weaponry (Storm shadow/GLSDB/Atacms/Neptune) or sabotage.

http://www.bueker.net/trainspotting/map.php?file=maps/ukraine/ukraine.gif

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/how_can_new_russian_railway_from_taganrog_to_occupied_mariupol_impact_the_ukrainian_counteroffensive-8084.html

There has also been a marked increase in railway traffic between North Korea and Russia (there is a break of gauge between North Korean standard gauge and Russian broad gauge) at their border. Apparently the amount of railway cars at the border has increased from around twenty over the past 5 years to more than seventy.

https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-munitions-317d41e228c10d63532cbda377bcd688

[Corvinus85]

Ukranians really like the Leopard tank. https://www.yahoo.com/news/leopard-purr-giving-ukraine-tank-212857353.html

Quote

“We were able to get about 200 metres from the Russian lines before we attacked,” said Commander Vitali, of the Brigade’s Third Tank Squad, who has been using the Leopard since the summer.

“You couldn’t do that with our older tanks, because you can hear them from two or three kilometres away – they make a lot of noise.”

They probably should get MORE!!!!