Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: If Trump loses in November and Congress does it's job in January '25, then Trump is gone forever as a political force, IMO, there's no shot he is in line for the 2028 nomination after a failure in 2024. He either takes the White House by hook or by crook this year or he's out forever. The question is whether MAGA disappears as well. If Trump loses (as I sincerely hope he will) he and all his supporters will scream it was stolen. I expect they will riot… again… on 1/6/2025. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I understand the relevance of the US election to this thread, but please try to make remarks about the US election in this thread directly relevant. Erik of Hazelfield, DireWolfSpirit and Ser Scot A Ellison 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Unconfirmed report that Russia launched 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missiles (max speed allegedly Mach 9) at targets in Ukraine today. It's hard to tell because they were shot down in mid-flight, so if they were Zircons, they're distinctly not living up to their billing. First confirmed use of KN-23 North Korean ballistic missiles against targets in Ukraine. The Izhevsk missile production plant in Russia was hit by drones and significant damage was incurred. Extent of the damage unclear but the explosion was quite large and areas of the plant remained on fire for some time afterwards. A better assessment of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure: seven of Russia's ten largest refineries have been hit, several quite badly. This contributed to a 37% drop in oil exports for January 2023 and a 23% drop in diesel. Ecuador has agreed to a deal to swap air defence systems to the US in return for modern American air defence systems. The older AA systems will then be sent to Ukraine. SA-8B Geckos, hardly state of the art but a solid short-range AA system. The Wild Hornets drone team in Ukraine has reduced their production cost per FPV drone to $350. They currently estimate for every $1 spent on Ukraine's drone programme, $200 of Russian equipment and personnel has been destroyed. Also, some claims that Ukrainian drones are experimenting with autonomous AI programming: the operator guides the drone to the edge of the jamming zone and once the jamming kicks in, the AI takes over and delivers the drone to the target regardless. It's unclear if this is actually in use in the field, but if so it might explain the very sharp uptick in Ukrainian drone effectiveness in the last few months. If true, this is interesting. Iran didn't trust Russian cash, so the payment for their Shahed drones was literally in gold. I'm not entirely sure there's any words for this: Hmmm, Kalbear and Ser Scot A Ellison 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 (edited) 3 hours ago, Werthead said: Unconfirmed report that Russia launched 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missiles (max speed allegedly Mach 9) at targets in Ukraine today. It's hard to tell because they were shot down in mid-flight, so if they were Zircons, they're distinctly not living up to their billing. First confirmed use of KN-23 North Korean ballistic missiles against targets in Ukraine. The Izhevsk missile production plant in Russia was hit by drones and significant damage was incurred. Extent of the damage unclear but the explosion was quite large and areas of the plant remained on fire for some time afterwards. A better assessment of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure: seven of Russia's ten largest refineries have been hit, several quite badly. This contributed to a 37% drop in oil exports for January 2023 and a 23% drop in diesel. Ecuador has agreed to a deal to swap air defence systems to the US in return for modern American air defence systems. The older AA systems will then be sent to Ukraine. SA-8B Geckos, hardly state of the art but a solid short-range AA system. The Wild Hornets drone team in Ukraine has reduced their production cost per FPV drone to $350. They currently estimate for every $1 spent on Ukraine's drone programme, $200 of Russian equipment and personnel has been destroyed. Also, some claims that Ukrainian drones are experimenting with autonomous AI programming: the operator guides the drone to the edge of the jamming zone and once the jamming kicks in, the AI takes over and delivers the drone to the target regardless. It's unclear if this is actually in use in the field, but if so it might explain the very sharp uptick in Ukrainian drone effectiveness in the last few months. If true, this is interesting. Iran didn't trust Russian cash, so the payment for their Shahed drones was literally in gold. I'm not entirely sure there's any words for this: I went to a dinner/seminar tonight at which defence/ Ukraine issues were discussed at length by top analysts. The key takeaways were:- 1. Tactically, the Russian army is dreadful. But, it has always been. Operationally, it is a lot more capable, and it is getting artillery shells in much greater numbers than Ukraine. 2. Russians are willing to suffer, to achieve military success, in ways we don’t fully appreciate in the West. 3. But even Russia can’t defy economic gravity for ever. If Ukraine can keep fighting for 2-3 years, then it will likely win, as Russia runs out of resources. 4. Germany’s commitment to Ukraine is now of vital importance. As well as aid, Germany is now training nearly three times as many Ukrainian soldiers as the UK is. 5. The reduction of the UK’s military capability, starting in 2010, is of real concern, throughout NATO. 6. Contrary to press reports, there is no shortage of people wishing to join the armed forces. The real problem is with Capita, taking up to 14 months to process applications, by which time, they’ve taken other jobs. Edited February 8 by SeanF Arakasi, Zorral and Hmmm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Germany's commitment to Ukraine has stepped up a notch. If they can avoid too much trouble over the next election cycle, they should be able to maintain support for some considerable time, as will France, the Baltics and Scandinavia + Finland. Germany was slow to start because they thought their "special relationship" they had very deliberately cultivated with Russia would allow them some diplomatic influence, but then they realised how close they'd be to the front line if Ukraine fell and went into overdrive providing support and ramping up Rheinmetall's production capability. Germany I think has also realised that its own military forces are in a dubious position to fight off a full-scale invasion, so they understand the need to stop Russia in Ukraine before they even think about the Baltics and Poland, let alone Germany itself. We're also fortunate that Italy's leader, despite her coalition being somewhat Russia-friendly, seems to genuinely and personally regard Russia as a threat, and the most Russia-friendly part of her coalition did us all a favour by dropping dead. In theory Britain can reverse its military recruitment issues relatively quickly, but as you say the problem is the middle-man. Capital is absolutely fucking useless, always has been, and unseating them or getting them to spend more money to fix the problems are both tall orders, probably blocked by the threat of contractual legal action. The Russian election cycle is also going to be interesting to watch. If Putin takes an overwhelming victory (which is likely) as effectively a referendum on his policy, then that might embolden him to a larger mobilisation to try to crush Ukraine in one go, although that might not be tremendously effective without a massive influx of new equipment from somewhere. However, he might do that as a psychological shock tactic to try to increase pressure on Ukraine to fold. A more lukewarm win (even if only visible on their internal read of the real results) might discourage that. Russia's economic issues should really come to a head this year. It's burning through its currency reserves at a rate that is seriously alarming some observers; if this has been solely to prop up the economy before the election and they stop after the election, they might get away with it (but with little left in the bank for a future crisis), but if they keep going, they'll exhaust that and then go into serious deficit. If Ukraine maintains its pressure on the energy export market, that could cause a really big problem for the economy this year. Having said all of that, Russia's ability to absorb economic damage remains remarkable and should not be underestimated: the oligarchs and Putin squirreling away most of the country's wealth since the 1990s, leaving most of the people with mediocre finances at best, may have actually insulated them from the most obvious effects of the sanctions, since the people on the street never saw any of that anyway and the oligarchs are the ones who've had to tighten their belts. Some concerns about the interaction between the Ukraine crisis and Korea. North Korea seems to have shifted its posture and may be looking to actively attack South Korea, possibly in an initially limited conflict that they will use their nuke threat to try to stop turning into a bigger one, possibly by attempting to retake the disputed islands. If that turns into a full-blown war, then that eliminates South Korea as a possibly supplier of weapons to Ukraine (although it also interrupts North Korean weapons shipments to Russia) for the duration. Obviously that scenario could spiral out of control to disastrous levels very quickly. Ser Reptitious, Erik of Hazelfield and wiedzma 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Political commitment s there. That is cross party census, barring the Neo Nazi party (AfD) and Wagenknecht's clownshow. Question is really what can Germany give. And the answer is not much aside from monetary commitments and medical treatment for Ukrainians (with the German bureaucracy driving the recipients mad). Equipment wise have commited more than they could, quantity wise. Taurus is the thing they could give. On top of arming Ukraine Germany also has to try to get its army into a defensive force. Which is ambitious, to say the least. The EU as a whole have not managed to cross the 1.000.000 mark of provided shells. Let's not kid ourselves here, without the US support for Ukraine is going nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wondering Wolf Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Zelensky has dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and appointed General Oleksandr Syrskyi in his place. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-dismisses-commander-in-chief-zaluzhnyi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Unsurprisingly, the Kremlin decided to keep Nadezhdin off the ballot. Apparently the first idea was to let him run to provide a credible counterpoint to Putin, but they were unnerved by the size of his support (200,000 signatures for him to become candidate, long lines and queues to see him speak in Moscow), so decided to cut him off. Ukrainian hackers took control of one of Russia's drone-control programmes and cut off Russian operators on the front from the system, grounding potentially thousands of drones. Unclear how widespread the effect was, and when it took place. The situation in Novosibirsk, Russia seems to be deteriorating. Like a number of Russian cities, the city suffered major infrastructure failures. Whilst other cities were able to repair things or use mitigation measures, Novosibirsk seems to have failed. The city has had periods in the last two months where most of the homes were left without water, heating and electricity. A major demonstration was planned for 20 January but authorities got wind of it and convinced organisers not to proceed. However, the outages are continuing, with temperatures dropping below -20 C. A successful prisoner exchange has taken place, with around 100 Ukrainian POWs returning to Ukraine. Zaluzhnyi is apparently being considered for other major roles after his replacement. Various rumours of staying on as an advisor, or leaving the country to become a special liaison with NATO. Avdiivka situation has become more difficult. Russian forces have reached the southern parts of the main urban zone. There was a ferocious gun battle two days ago and Russian forces were thrown back, but returned with reserves and were able to secure some gains. The Ukrainian defenders seem annoyed because they've expended immense reserves to secure Stepove to the north and now have limited resources to deny the attack into the town centre. Speculation over whether a grinding battle to attrit the enemy or pulling out now is the better move. Worth noting that if Avdiivka does fall, Russia may have paid for it in greater numbers of lives than any other settlement to date. Hmmm, wiedzma, Jace, Extat and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hmmm Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) On 2/7/2024 at 5:15 AM, The Anti-Targ said: If Trump loses in November and Congress does it's job in January '25, then Trump is gone forever as a political force, IMO, there's no shot he is in line for the 2028 nomination after a failure in 2024. He either takes the White House by hook or by crook this year or he's out forever. The question is whether MAGA disappears as well. Yeah, that's what I think as well. But a Trump win at this point should make nuclear proliferation pretty likely within not that many years. France and the UK would obviously need to beef up their arsenals, but a bunch more EU countries would probably follow (like Poland and Germany). Ukraine as well probably, if they have the time and ability to. In East Asia, both South Korea and Japan have the capacity to get nuclear weapons programs going pretty quickly. Taiwan I am less knowledgeable about. I guess they might not get the time anyway... In the Middle East, you have Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Possibly Turkey too. Then you get all the second order effects of even more countries getting inspired to get nukes, when they can see that the proliferation is already underway... Edited February 8 by Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stark Revenge Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I'm seeing a lot of negative reactions to Syrski being Zaluzhnyi's replacement. What's so bad about Syrski? I'm not familiar with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Syrskyi has significant tactical experience, commanding the defence of Kyiv and also the Kharkiv counteroffensive, both highly successful operations. I'm guessing the logic is that he can bring that knowledge of exploiting Ukraine's strengths to the entire front and identify where successful operations might be conducted. He was also in charge of the Ukrainian military's switch to NATO training and doctrines. He has highly significant combat experience, being eight years older than Zaluzhnyi. Interestingly, he is Russian by birth and served in the Red Army during operations including Afghanistan. He is Ukrainian by choice, apparently rejecting returning to Russia to gain Ukrainian citizenship after 1991. He also served in Donbas. On paper he seems to be a pretty good choice to replace Zaluzhnyi (not to mention, as overall commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, he was pretty much next in line anyway). As far as I can tell, the controversy is more about the replacement and the rationale for it rather than the individuals involved. If Zaluzhnyi had stepped down by choice, I don't think there'd be much arguing about it. However, there are a lot of discussions going on around it. Some are speculating this is Ukrainian political opsec, designed to throw off the Russians and confuse them about what's going on by feeding into Kremlin narratives about political infighting and chaos etc. We saw a lot of this early in the conflict but much less in the last year or so. That seems fanciful. More likely is that the failure to achieve a breakthrough in summer 2023 put political pressure on Zelensky so he had to be seen to be responding to that, even if he's just really swapping like for like. It might be that Syrskyi can identify a strategy to achieve a major breakthrough and this will seem to have been an inspired choice, but there are question marks about that, especially if Zelensky now proves reluctant to follow through on plans to raise another 400,000 troops. Kalbear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I'm sitting here just hoping that this doesn't mean a push for an offensive this year while Ukraine suffers from a dire ammunitions shortage. It sounds to me far more reasonable to focus on defense for as much as Russia seems eager to be throw an unreasonable amount of men away in its offensives. I always regarded the worst possible situation to be Russia deciding to stop being this stupid and dig in while still having manpower and ammunition advantages and while Ukraine is then unable to meaningfully push into these defenses. wiedzma and Jace, Extat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I can't claim to be a student of the teachings of Sun Tzu, but it seems like it might be consistent with some aspect of the Art of War for Ukraine to talk confidently about a summer offensive both for it's supposed allies and Russia to hear. It's allies want to hear confidence on the part of Ukraine in order to keep up pro-Ukraine PR to their voting public and give head room for continuing to send military and non-military aid. Ukraine needs Russia to think Ukraine is confident so that Russia at least has moments of pause about throwing so many resources into a winter/spring meat grinder that will drain Ukraine's resources and make it even harder for a summer offensive to happen. I think I thought last summer would be a definitive period to determine how the war would play out to its end point. Clearly I was wrong. But maybe this summer will be it, because this summer will really test Ukraine's support countries' abilities to keep providing Ukraine with the hardware and tech to eventually push Russia out of Ukraine. I'm still leaning towards Ukraine not being able to succeed without allied countries putting boots on the ground behind front lines and in front line support / logistics roles in Ukraine at least, so that more Ukraine troops can be deployed to the front line. I think at some point there will need to be some way to reduce the military personnel numbers deficit, and I think that can't happen drawing solely from the Ukrainian population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) Going back to what I said earlier about providing shells to Ukraine. The European partners (EU basically) promised/wanted to deliver 1.000.000 shells by the end of 2023. That was the delivery target. Actually delivered were 300.000 shells. Given how quickly Ukraine eats through them, it's not nothing, but not reallymuch more than a drop in the ocean. We really need the US get its act together. In terms of military aid, who do you think is the biggest backer relative to its GDP? Latvia is spending roughly 1% of its GDP on Military Aid for Ukraine. Not gonna shame Spain or France here in terms of their contribution. I suppose @Rippounet could provide the French numbers and put those into context. edit: if you have ten minutes. Edited February 9 by A Horse Named Stranger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luzifer's right hand Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) In think France is focusing on its nuclear weapons again and Macron at least hinted that they would be used to protect all of the EU. At last according to some German language articles I read. Seems sensible. Strong nuclear strike capability is the only thing that will keep the EU safe if the christian fascists take over the USA completely and the country becomes more isolationist. Edited February 9 by Luzifer's right hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rippounet Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Given the current state of the French military, I'm pleasantly surprised when we do manage to deliver anything tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bironic Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: We really need the US get its act together. In terms of military aid, who do you think is the biggest backer relative to its GDP? I fear that there will be no substantial aid by the USA before January 2025, and then only if the democrats win the trifecta. Europe knew that it is dangerous to rely on the USA, and they knew it for years and decades. Probably you know it already but the Kiel Institute for World Economy has very good insight about support for Ukraine. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ Basically you have eastern and northern European states give quite a lot while countries in the south/west (Italy, France Spain, Greece, Portugal) give significantly less. The same is true for the non NATO/EU members of the Ukraine defense group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darzin Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 On 2/7/2024 at 8:17 AM, ThinkerX said: Lately, on another site, I have been 'debating' with a couple of people who claim to be American 'tourists' in Moscow or at least Russia. According to them... No rolling blackouts... No press gangs snatching people from businesses... No financial difficulties - at least for them... Supposedly, 'college kids' do criticize the war now and again. These guys tell them to shut up because the US government 'wants to kill everybody in Russia.' Ukraine is on the brink of collapse (they get enraged when the war's duration is pointed out and how long that claim has been repeated) Russian casualties, as reported in the Western media, are bogus. I am unsure if these are Militia/MAGA types who went to Russia or if they are merely trolls. I do wonder how, if they are in Russia, they avoid the attention of the secret police for the crime of participating on message boards outside of Russia. That sounds pretty accurate to me. The Russian government has spent a ton of effort to keep the war from affecting Moscow too much, and the goods affected by the sanctions are mostly international luxuries or high tech components neither of which have filtered down that much though the latter is starting to show an effect with things like airplanes. The rest is just standard talking points that pretty much everyone in favor of Putin believes. Also lol that the Russian secret police arrest Russians who post on message boards outside of Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishgenius Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Could someone do me a favour and click through here and see if they can see this whole thread? A mate of mine is seeing some posts as unavailable and I'm trying to figure out why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 hours ago, polishgenius said: Could someone do me a favour and click through here and see if they can see this whole thread? A mate of mine is seeing some posts as unavailable and I'm trying to figure out why. Some posts aren't showing up, others are, others are replying with screengrabs of the vanished posts. The general gist of it is that Putin mentioned Poland 30 times in the interview, more than any other country bar Ukraine and Russia, and blamed Poland for starting WWII and for harbouring fascists, then as now (his words). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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