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Stubby

R+L=J v. 88

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In this incarnation of the thread, a polite reminder to make posts substantive and not to use the thread for chat. TTTNE in Forum Games is the thread for that.

Reference guide

The Tower of the Hand has an excellent analysis of this theory:
Jon Snow's Parents

And Westeros' Citadel also provides a summary:
Jon Snow's Parents

A Wiki of Ice and Fire:
Jon Snow Theories


Frequently Asked Questions:

How can Jon be a Targaryen if he has a burned hand?
Targaryens are not immune to fire. Aerion Brightflame died drinking wildfire. Aegon V and his son Duncan are thought to have died in a fire-related event at Summerhall. Rhaenyra was eaten by Aegon II's dragon, presumably roasted by fire before the dragon took a bite. Viserys died when he was crowned with molten gold. Dany suffered burns from the fire pit incident at the end of A Dance with Dragons. Finally, the author has stated outright that Targaryens are not immune to fire. Jon's burned hand does not mean he is ineligible to be part Targaryen. For more information about the myth of Targaryen fire immunity, see this thread.

How can Jon be a Targ if he doesn't have silver hair and purple eyes?
Not all Targaryens had the typical Valyrian look. Alysanne had blue eyes. Baelor Breakspear and his son(s) had the Dornish look. Some of the Great Bastards did not have typical Valyrian features. Jon's own half-sister Rhaenys had her mother's Dornish look.

If Jon isn't Ned's son, then why does he look so much like him?
Much is made over the fact that Arya looks like Lyanna, and Jon looks like Arya. Ned and Lyanna shared similar looks.

How can Jon be half-Targ if he has a direwolf?
Ned's trueborn children are half Stark and half Tully. Being half Tully didn't prevent them from having a direwolf so there is no reason to think being half Targaryen would prevent Jon from having a direwolf. If Lyanna is his mother, then he's still half Stark. Furthermore, there is already a character who is half Targaryen and half blood of the First Men and was a skinchanger: Bloodraven.

Since Rhaegar was already married, wouldn't Jon still be a bastard?
The evidence that Jon is legitimate is that Targaryens have a history of polygamous marriages which makes it a possibility that Rhaegar had two wives. Three Kingsguards were present at the Tower of Joy when Ned arrived. Even after Ned said that Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon were dead and Viserys had fled to Dragonstone, the Kingsguard opted to stay at the Tower of Joy stating they were obeying their Kingsguard vow. The heart of a Kingsguard's vow is to protect the king. With Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon dead, the new king would have been Viserys, unless Lyanna's child was legitimate making him the new king of the Targaryen dynasty.
For a comprehensive analysis of Jon's legitimacy, see the detailed explanations in the two linked articles.

But polygamy hadn't been practiced in centuries, is it still even legal?
The practice was never made illegal and there may have been some less prominent examples after Maegor, as stated in this SSM. Furthermore, Jorah suggests it to Dany as a viable option.

Weren't the Kingsguard at Tower of Joy on the basis of an order from Aerys, to guard Lyanna as a hostage?
Aerys was sane enough to realize how taking someone hostage works even at the end of the Rebellion, and he would hardly miss the opportunity to bring Ned and Robert in line any time after the situation started to look really serious.
Furthermore, regardless of on whose order the Kingsguard might have stayed at Tower of Joy, they would still be in dereliction of their duty to guard the new king.

This theory is too obvious and too many people believe it to be fact. How can it be true?
The theory is not obvious to the majority of readers. Some will get it on first read, most will not. Keep in mind that readers who go to online fan forums, such as this one, represent a very small minority of the A Song of Ice and Fire readership. Also, A Game of Thrones has been out since 1996. That's more than 17 years of readers being able to piece together this mystery.

Why doesn't Ned ever think about Lyanna being Jon's mother?
Ned doesn't think about anyone as being his mother. He says the name 'Wylla' to Robert, but does not actively think that Wylla is the mother. He also doesn't think of Jon as his son. There are numerous mysteries in the series, and Jon's parentage is one of those. If Ned thought about Jon being Lyanna's son, it would not be a mystery.

Why should we care who Jon's parents are? Will Jon care? Who cares if he's legitimate?
Once one accepts that the evidence is conclusive and that Jon's parents are Rhaegar and Lyanna and that he is most probably legitimate, these become the important questions.

Previous editions:

Please click on the spoiler below to reveal links to all previous editions of this thread.

Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread” (thread one)

Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread” (thread two)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part III)” (thread three)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part IV)” (thread four)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part V)” (thread five)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI)” (thread six)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon Thread Part VII” (thread seven)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part VIII” (thread eight)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part IX” (thread nine)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna =Jon Thread, Part X”(thread ten)

The R+L=J thread, part XI” (thread eleven)

The R+L=J thread, part XII” (thread twelve)

R+L=J Part XXIII” (thread thirteen)

R+L=J Part XXIV” (thread fourteen)

R+L=J XXV” (thread fifteen)

R+L=J v.16” (thread sixteen)

R+L=J v.17” (thread seventeen)

R+L=J v.18” (thread eighteen)

R+L=J v.19” (thread nineteen)

R+L=J v.20” (thread twenty)

R+L=J v.21” (thread twenty-one)

R+L=J v.22” (thread twenty-two)

R+L=J v.22a” (thread twenty-two (a))

R+L=J v.23” (thread twenty-three)

R+L=J v.24” (thread twenty-four)

R+L=J v.25” (thread twenty-five)

R+L=J v.26” (thread twenty-six)

R+L=J v.27” (thread twenty-seven)

R+L=J v.28” (thread twenty-eight)

R+L=J v.29” (thread twenty-nine)

R+L=J v.30” (thread thirty)

R+L=J v.31” (thread thirty-one)

R+L=J v.32” (thread thirty-two)

R+L=J #33” (thread thirty-three)

R+L=J v.34” (thread thirty-four)

R+L=J v.35” (thread thirty-five)

R+L=J v.36” (thread thirty-six)

R+L=J v.37” (thread thirty-seven)

R+L=J v.38” (thread thirty-eight)

R+L=J v.39” (thread thirty-nine)

"R+L=J v.40" (thread forty)

"R+L=J v. 41" (thread forty-one)

"R+L=J v.42" (thread forty-two)

"R+L=J v.43" (thread forty-three)

"R+L=J v.44" (thread forty-four)

"R+L=J v.45" (thread forty-five)

"R+L=J v.46" (thread forty-six)

"R+L=J v.47" (thread forty-seven)

"R+L=J v.48" (thread forty-eight)

"R+L=J v.49" (thread forty-nine)

"R+L=J v.50" (thread fifty)

"R+L=J v.51" (thread fifty-one)

"R+L=J v.52" (thread fifty-two)

"R+L=J v.53" (thread fifty-three)

"R+L=J v.54" (thread fifty=four)

"R+L=J v.55" (thread fifty-five)

"R+L=J v.56" (thread fifty-six)

"R+L=J v.57" (thread fifty-seven)

"R+L=J v 58" (thread fifty-eight)

"R+L=J v 59" (thread fifty-nine)

"R+L=J v 60" (thread sixty)

"R+L=J v 61" (thread sixty-one)

"R+L=J v 62" (thread sixty-two)

"R+L=J v 63" (thread sixty-three)

"R+L=J v 64" (thread sixty four)

"R+L=J v 65" (thread sixty five)

R+L=J v 66 (thread sixty-six)

"R+L=J v 67" (thread sixty-seven)

"R+L=J v 68" (thread sixty-eight)

"R+L=J v 69" (thread sixty-nine)

"R+L=J v 70" (thread seventy)
"R+L=J v 71" (thread seventy-one)

"R+L=J v 72" (thread seventy-two)

"R+L=J v 73" (thread seventy-three)

"R+L=J v 74" (thread seventy-four)

"R+L=J v 75" (thread seventy-five)

"R+L=J v 76" (thread seventy-six)

"R+L=J v.77" (thread seventy-seven)

"R+L=J v. 78" (thread seventy-eight)

"R+L=J v. 79" (thread seventy-nine)

"R+L=J v. 80" (thread eighty)

"R+L=J v. 81" (thread eighty-one)

"R+L=J v. 82" (thread eighty-two)

"R+L=J v. 83" (thread eighty-three)

"R+L=J v. 84" (thread eighty-four)

"R+L=J v. 85" (thread eighty-five)

"R+L=J v. 86" (thread eighty-six)

"R+L=J v. 87" (thread eighty-seven)

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You are doing well. Here is the actual data. Daenerys was born nine months after her mother fled King's Landing, therefore we know that GRRM is using 9 month gestation. Daenerys was conceived on the night that Chelsted was roasted, because Jaime tells us about it, and we know that both Aerys and Rhaella avoided each other as much as possible. We know that Jonothor Darry was with Jaime that night, and that Rossart was Hand for a fortnight before being killed by Jaime. Rhaegar and Darry went to the Trident a fortnight before the fall of King's Landing. GRRM states that Jon is eight to nine months older than Daenerys. If he is nine months older he is born a fortnight before the fall of King's Landing, if he is eight months older he is born a fortnight after the fall of King's Landing. The absolute latest time that Ned can arrive at the tower of joy is a fortnight plus ten days (3.5 weeks) after the fall of King's Landing. That includes that Jon must be born ten days before Ned arrives. When you put all of the clues into a hat and pick them out one by one, it is easy to pick on one aspect. That is what STD SOD does, pick one item at a time. It is the whole of the clues that point to one specific event being Jon's birth, five to ten days before Ned arrives. Ned must travel a great distance to get to Storm's End and receive the surrender that he documents in his dream before he travels to the tower.




You are doing well. Here is the actual data. Daenerys was born nine months after her mother fled King's Landing, therefore we know that GRRM is using 9 month gestation.



Daenerys was conceived on the night that Chelsted was roasted, because Jaime tells us about it, and we know that both Aerys and Rhaella avoided each other as much as possible. We know that Jonothor Darry was with Jaime that night,


Ok she was conceived before the news of the battle on the Trident reached KL.


and that Rossart was Hand for a fortnight before being killed by Jaime.


Was hand from news of defeat at the Trident reached KL until death.... 2 weeks


Rhaegar and Darry went to the Trident a fortnight before the fall of King's Landing.


It was 2 weeks between the Trident and the sack.



When news of Rhaegar’s death and the defeat of the royalists reached King’s Landing, the newly-pregnant Queen Rhaella and her son Prince Viserys were sent to Dragonstone --


we know that GRRM is using 9 month gestation--ML



Birth is no more than 9 months from the news of Rhaegar's death arriving at Kings landing


.



GRRM states that Jon is eight to nine months older than Daenerys.



If he is nine months older he is born a fortnight before the fall of King's Landing,


if he is 9 months older he was born no later than the news of the battle on the Trident reached KL


if he is eight months older he is born a fortnight after the fall of King's Landing.


If he is eight months older he was born no later than a month after the news of the battle on the Trident reached KL.



Accepting--SSM as canon... no objections there...


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The absolute latest time that Ned can arrive at the tower of joy is a fortnight plus ten days (3.5 weeks) after the fall of King's Landing. That includes that Jon must be born ten days before Ned arrives.


--- Do you have a source on that one?



When you put all of the clues into a hat and pick them out one by one, it is easy to pick on one aspect. That is what STD SOD does, pick one item at a time.


----I have had no objection to Canon... including SSM



It is the whole of the clues that point to one specific event being Jon's birth, five to ten days before Ned arrives.


----as of yet the only clue given of this timeline is your earlier assertion of the same.



Ned must travel a great distance to get to Storm's End and receive the surrender that he documents in his dream before he travels to the tower


Ok Storm's end is the same distance from KL as the Ruby Ford is. From SE to the ToJ is a little further.than that.


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(given a 9 month pregnancy) Jon's birth was the earliest 1 month before the news of Rhaegar's death reached King's landing (Dany's birth -8) and the latest when news of Raegar's death reached King's Landing, (Dany's birth-9)


Actually, that's bad math. The earliest would be when news of Rhaegar's death reached King's Landing, since Dany is 9 months from being born). The latest would be 1 month AFTER, not before, news reached Kings Landing, as Dany is now only 8 months from being born.

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<snip>

I think some of your math is wrong.

Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany.

Dany was conceived about two weeks before the Sack, going by the timeline of Aerys's final Hand, who served for a fortnight after Chelsted was burned (guessing that the office was filled soon/immediately after his execution). Dany says she was born nine moons (months) after her mother and Viserys fled to Dragonstone, which occurred shortly after the news of the Trident reached the capital. Rhaella and Viserys left fairly soon after Dany was conceived, because Jaime notes that Rhaella was covered; she still had markings from Aerys's rape.

If Dany was born 8.5-9 months after the Sack (considering that she was conceived roughly half a month before it; two weeks), and Jon is 8-9 months older, then that puts his birth at about the time of the Sack, up to a couple of weeks after. At the most, a month after, although I think that's probably too long. Not "one month" before the Trident; way too early.

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Actually, that's bad math. The earliest would be when news of Rhaegar's death reached King's Landing, since Dany is 9 months from being born). The latest would be 1 month AFTER, not before, news reached Kings Landing, as Dany is now only 8 months from being born.

horrible math... in the link... Rhaella as pregnant when the news arrived. That means she had 8 months left till birth.

When news of Rhaegar’s death and the defeat of the royalists reached King’s Landing, the newly-pregnant Queen Rhaella and her son Prince Viserys were sent to Dragonstone (I: 25). http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/What_happened_when_during_Roberts_Rebellion

(given a 9 month pregnancy) Jon's birth was the earliest 1 month before the news of Rhaegar's death reached King's landing (Dany's birth -8) and the latest when news of Raegar's death reached King's Landing, (Dany's birth-9)

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horrible math... in the link... Rhaella as pregnant when the news arrived. That means she had 8 months left till birth.

When news of Rhaegar’s death and the defeat of the royalists reached King’s Landing, the newly-pregnant Queen Rhaella and her son Prince Viserys were sent to Dragonstone (I: 25). http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/What_happened_when_during_Roberts_Rebellion

(given a 9 month pregnancy) Jon's birth was the earliest 1 month before the news of Rhaegar's death reached King's landing (Dany's birth -8) and the latest when news of Raegar's death reached King's Landing, (Dany's birth-9)

But did Rhaella know she was pregnant when she left, or is that information only there in hindsight? I.e. Rhaella had to be pregnant when she left because she gave birth to Dany and didn't see/sleep with Aerys again before she died, ergo in hindsight she must have been pregnant when she left? Hindsight is not the same as knowing at the time.

ETA: Just going by basic human biology: Dany was conceived about two weeks before the Sack. We can figure this out because she was conceived on the night that Aerys burned Chelsted. The Hand after Chelsted only served for a fortnight before he and Aerys were killed in the Sack. So we have Dany's conception pinned down. Rhaella would thus have been pregnant for fewer than two weeks at the time she left King's Landing. It is highly unlikely, given that short amount of time, that anyone would have known she was pregnant at the time she left. As such, I think it's safe to say that "newly pregnant" is said with the benefit of hindsight; she gave birth to Dany on Dragonstone and as such, in hindsight, she must have been pregnant when she left.

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Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if Jon was born the night of the Sack. Timeline wise, it's possible as Apple Martini points out above. Now he could have been born a few weeks after, but I think there is a certain poetic (for wont of a better word) to nature this. Rhaegar dies on the Trident, the Rebellion moves to KL, Aerys opens the gates. Jamie kills Aerys, Rhaegar's two children by Elia die, Viserys is off on Dragonstone. It seems like the Rebellion has accomplished its goal. But unbeknownst to everyone, a son is born to Lyanna and Rhaegar far away in a tower. Oh and he happens to be a prophesied savior. Maybe it is too mythic, too fantastical, but I think it works.


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Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if Jon was born the night of the Sack. Timeline wise, it's possible as Apple Martini points out above. Now he could have been born a few weeks after, but I think there is a certain poetic (for wont of a better word) to nature this. Rhaegar dies on the Trident, the Rebellion moves to KL, Aerys opens the gates. Jamie kills Aerys, Rhaegar's two children by Elia die, Viserys is off on Dragonstone. It seems like the Rebellion has accomplished its goal. But unbeknownst to everyone, a son is born to Lyanna and Rhaegar far away in a tower. Oh and he happens to be a prophesied savior. Maybe it is too mythic, too fantastical, but I think it works.

I also tend to think that he was probably born extremely close to the time of the Sack, for this reason:

"Two kings to wake the dragon."

Jaime kills Aerys. One king dies. Rhaegar is already dead; Aegon becomes king when Aerys dies. Gregor kills Aegon. Second king dies.

Then Jon is born.

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horrible math... in the link... Rhaella as pregnant when the news arrived. That means she had 8 months left till birth.

When news of Rhaegar’s death and the defeat of the royalists reached King’s Landing, the newly-pregnant Queen Rhaella and her son Prince Viserys were sent to Dragonstone (I: 25). http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/What_happened_when_during_Roberts_Rebellion

(given a 9 month pregnancy) Jon's birth was the earliest 1 month before the news of Rhaegar's death reached King's landing (Dany's birth -8) and the latest when news of Raegar's death reached King's Landing, (Dany's birth-9)

I literally quoted you, used YOUR basis when you did YOUR incorrect assumptions, and pointed out that you had the 8 month older than Dany calculation wrong. Maybe it's time you showed a little consistency?

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Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if Jon was born the night of the Sack. Timeline wise, it's possible as Apple Martini points out above. Now he could have been born a few weeks after, but I think there is a certain poetic (for wont of a better word) to nature this. Rhaegar dies on the Trident, the Rebellion moves to KL, Aerys opens the gates. Jamie kills Aerys, Rhaegar's two children by Elia die, Viserys is off on Dragonstone. It seems like the Rebellion has accomplished its goal. But unbeknownst to everyone, a son is born to Lyanna and Rhaegar far away in a tower. Oh and he happens to be a prophesied savior. Maybe it is too mythic, too fantastical, but I think it works.

Especially if we play around with the life-paying-for-life thing. One could see Lyanna as the (accidental) sacrifice for a "dragon" to be born, but it may be that her death was purely natural and it was, say, Aerys's death that potentially provided magical oomph.

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I also tend to think that he was probably born extremely close to the time of the Sack, for this reason:

"Two kings to wake the dragon."

Jaime kills Aerys. One king dies. Rhaegar is already dead; Aegon becomes king when Aerys dies. Gregor kills Aegon. Second king dies.

Then Jon is born.

Remind me where the "two kings.." quote comes from?

But yes, that makes a lot of sense.

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I also tend to think that he was probably born extremely close to the time of the Sack, for this reason:

"Two kings to wake the dragon."

Jaime kills Aerys. One king dies. Rhaegar is already dead; Aegon becomes king when Aerys dies. Gregor kills Aegon. Second king dies.

Then Jon is born.

Oh, dingdingding. The father first, so both die kings.

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Remind me where the "two kings.." quote comes from?

But yes, that makes a lot of sense.

It's when Melisandre wants to burn Mance and then his son. So both die kings.

The tricky part is that it's "first the father, then the son." Which isn't how Aerys and Aegon went. But it's unclear if the father-son relationship is necessary, or if it's simply two kings and the father-son relationship was pertinent because it affected the of that specific pair; if Mance's son died first, he wouldn't have died a king.

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Especially if we play around with the life-paying-for-life thing. One could see Lyanna as the (accidental) sacrifice for a "dragon" to be born, but it may be that her death was purely natural and it was, say, Aerys's death that potentially provided magical oomph.

It's also possible that the "two kings" is a correlation, not a causation. A marker, if you will, not the "oomph."

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It's when Melisandre wants to burn Mance and then his son. So both die kings.

The tricky part is that it's "first the father, then the son." Which isn't how Aerys and Aegon went. But it's unclear if the father-son relationship is necessary, or if it's simply two kings and the father-son relationship was pertinent because it affected the of that specific pair; if Mance's son died first, he wouldn't have died a king.

ahhh.

Well. Stretching here--I know. If the KG are acknowledging Rhaegar as their king because of Aerys' crimes then in some way Rhaegar is King when he dies on the Trident (in the eyes of his followers, much like Robb or Renly were kings in the eyes of their followers) and then Rhaegar's son Aegon dies...then the "father first, then the son" might work.

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I think some of your math is wrong.

Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany.

Dany was conceived about two weeks before the Sack, going by the timeline of Aerys's final Hand, who served for a fortnight after Chelsted was burned (guessing that the office was filled soon/immediately after his execution). Dany says she was born nine moons (months) after her mother and Viserys fled to Dragonstone, which occurred shortly after the news of the Trident reached the capital. Rhaella and Viserys left fairly soon after Dany was conceived, because Jaime notes that Rhaella was covered; she still had markings from Aerys's rape.

If Dany was born 8.5-9 months after the Sack (considering that she was conceived roughly half a month before it; two weeks), and Jon is 8-9 months older, then that puts his birth at about the time of the Sack, up to a couple of weeks after. At the most, a month after, although I think that's probably too long. Not "one month" before the Trident; way too early.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/What_happened_when_during_Roberts_Rebellion

"When news of Rhaegar’s death and the defeat of the royalists reached King’s Landing, the newly-pregnant Queen Rhaella and her son Prince Viserys were sent to Dragonstone"

I guessed that Rhaella was known to be pregnant. Based on the above statement. That takes a month off of your birth dates based off estimated time of conception....

Without guessing aything what can we come up with?

However, Queen Rhaella died giving birth to Daenerys during a terrible storm almost precisely nine months after the death of Rhaegar and the Sack of King’s Landing. --same link as before.

Death of Rhaegar- puts Jon born (9 months before Dany).. on the death of Raegar. Jon born (8 months before Dany) is one month after the death of Rhaegar.

Sack of KL--puts Jon born (9 months before Dany) during the sack (two weeks after trident)-- Jon born (8 months before Dany) is 1 month after sack. (6 weeks after Trident)

Is that acceptable to you?

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It's when Melisandre wants to burn Mance and then his son. So both die kings.

The tricky part is that it's "first the father, then the son." Which isn't how Aerys and Aegon went. But it's unclear if the father-son relationship is necessary, or if it's simply two kings and the father-son relationship was pertinent because it affected the of that specific pair; if Mance's son died first, he wouldn't have died a king.

Aerys dies first, right? So the king dies, and his son is already dead, so his son's son (Aegon) becomes king in name only, and then he dies too.

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I literally quoted you, used YOUR basis when you did YOUR incorrect assumptions, and pointed out that you had the 8 month older than Dany calculation wrong. Maybe it's time you showed a little consistency?

I will quit assuming... we have a solid B-day for dany from SSM....

Why don't we both start there.

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