The Ukraine War: Casus Belgorod

[SeanF]

17 hours ago, Zorral said:

Plenty of stable fires were caused by guys putting their pipes down too close to flammable hay, straw and grain.

In 1994, I went to a re-enactment of the Battle of Windrush Valley.  It was very hot, and the grass was very dry.  And the wadding from the cannon set the grass alight, spreading to the car park, and burning dozens of cars.

In dry conditions, wounded soldiers were often burned alive, due to such fires.

[Padraig]

11 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Bottom-line: I don't think any side considers this area as more expendable, they both want it as part of their country (notwithstanding the international legal status of the Southern part of Kherson province).

But Russia is hoisted by their own petard.  If you don't want to be the first point of call when blame is to be shared out about the latest atrocity, don't invade neighbouring countries.  Or commit other atrocities in that country.  Or treat your own soldiers as replaceable cannon fodder.

Ukraine is clearly not angelic but any attempted equivalence is silly.

[DMC]

11 hours ago, mormont said:

Vanity.

With a shot of whiskey.

[Kalbear]

It's always remarkable to me how people are able to find the truth that others don't AND, somehow, that truth weirdly seems to always correspond to their deeply held beliefs. 

[SeanF]

58 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

It's always remarkable to me how people are able to find the truth that others don't AND, somehow, that truth weirdly seems to always correspond to their deeply held beliefs. 

They think themselves sceptics, when in reality, they are gullible.

[ThinkerX]

Not going to bother with links, but it seems like Russia managed to inflict 'significant losses' on an attacking Ukrainian force, including destroying multiple Leopard tanks with mines and RPG's. 

Then again, another dubious article claims Russia launched four offensives, all of which failed. 

[horangi]

7 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Not going to bother with links, but it seems like Russia managed to inflict 'significant losses' on an attacking Ukrainian force, including destroying multiple Leopard tanks with mines and RPG's. 

Then again, another dubious article claims Russia launched four offensives, all of which failed. 

Note a fundamental difference is that the images being broadcasted show damaged vehicles where the crews almost certainly walked away.  Its hard to tell based on the footage, but most seem recoverable.  At the end of the day, an experienced crew is worth more than the vehicles that drive them.  Moreover, its quite a morale boost to know that if someone is tapped to take the tough task of attacking a defensive line, that they will likely survive even if they get hit.  Another smaller advantage here is that when Russia does eventually capture NATO equipment, they are not going to provide much help beyond propaganda since they aren't likely able to repair, maintain, or equip them in any large scale whereas Ukraine has essentially unlimited, if time constrained, ability to do so for both NATO and Soviet era equipment. 

[Maithanet]

When you're attacking well prepared enemy defenses, you are going to have losses.  Nothing we have seen is at all surprising, and does not tell us anything about whether the offensive is going well or not.  We just have to wait. 

[williamjm]

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

When you're attacking well prepared enemy defenses, you are going to have losses.  Nothing we have seen is at all surprising, and does not tell us anything about whether the offensive is going well or not.  We just have to wait. 

Considering that the Russians and Ukranians have apparently lost 2000+ and 500+ tanks in the war so far, the loss of three Leopards isn't exactly a decisive moment.

[Zorral]

Devereaux has a good piece up at Unmitigated Pedantry this week, which investigates the possible reasons the Russian Army has performed so poorly in this invasion of conquest.  He dares to suggest we might possibly think that this is the case for all militaries these days, since the reasons for this kind of warfare have been changing with technology.  Most militaries are now built as anti-coup organization, of which, he suggests, Russia's is a poster child. Being good to dissuade a coup isn't at all the same as being an effective military to invade, conquer and hold.

https://acoup.blog/2023/06/09/fireside-friday-june-9-2023/

 

[Clueless Northman]

19 hours ago, Toth said:

That's just not true. The US administration has not said anything whatsoever about being "convinced" that Ukraine destroyed Nordstream. Where did you hear that? I have been debating this nonsense for days now and not even those who claim with utter conviction that it was Ukraine had provided any source saying that.

Was it WaPo or NYT who basically stated their own "anonymous" inside official sources said Ukraine did it?

For the record, I'm 99.9% sure Ukraine wasn't involved at all - makes no sense, they definitely didn't have the means or know-how.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Personally, I think Ukraine makes a lot of sense. Veening off Europe (well, Germany actually) off Russian gas (and Russia off hard €) by force and thus making sanctions more effective. So effectively burning the ships behind the EU.

With the pipelines intact, it'd be much more likely that Ukraine's European allies would be wavering.

[Toth]

3 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Was it WaPo or NYT who basically stated their own "anonymous" inside official sources said Ukraine did it?

They said the first thing I mentioned, that a source in Ukraine said a sabotage action had been discussed in Ukraine's intelligence service three months before it happened. That's a major difference to saying that the US government is convinced that they did it, but frustratingly the headlines I've seen everywhere were ridiculously suggestive.

[SeanF]

10 hours ago, Zorral said:

Devereaux has a good piece up at Unmitigated Pedantry this week, which investigates the possible reasons the Russian Army has performed so poorly in this invasion of conquest.  He dares to suggest we might possibly think that this is the case for all militaries these days, since the reasons for this kind of warfare have been changing with technology.  Most militaries are now built as anti-coup organization, of which, he suggests, Russia's is a poster child. Being good to dissuade a coup isn't at all the same as being an effective military to invade, conquer and hold.

https://acoup.blog/2023/06/09/fireside-friday-june-9-2023/

 

If the Industrial Revolution were to go into reverse (say, low birthrates, climate change, turn world growth negative), I could see the balance shifting back to wars of conquest.  But, governments would be reliant a lot more on technology than on masses of young men.

I think it’s a particular problem for dictatorships, that effective armed forces are a danger to them.  If they don’t face a dangerous foreign enemy, they prefer to let conventional forces wither, while building up a repressive internal security force.

Funnily enough, it was reading The Hunger Games that brought that home to me.  The Peacekeepers were fine at doing internal repression, but fell apart when faced with a conventional invasion.

The Nazis are a good example of the points that Devereaux was making.  Their attitude towards the economics of warfare was decades out of date.  They thought that plundering the occupied territories would give Germany a huge military boost, when at best, all it did was cover the costs of occupation.  Worse, it sometimes cost them dear.  So, they thought they could hugely boost aircraft production by gaining control of France's aircraft industry (the biggest in the world in 1939), only to discover, it depended on power produced by British coal imports.  So, they were left having to export vast supplies of coal from the Ruhr to France, to the detriment of their own industrial production.

I also agree with the point that Weapons of Mass Destruction save lives.  I cannot stress how much more brutal warfare was when fought with edged and pointed weapons, and early firearms.

Edited June 10, 2023 by SeanF

[Maithanet]

 

One thing about these pictures of destroyed Bradleys that the Russians have been so proud to release.  Yes, it's like 8 destroyed vehicles in one small area (a minefield).  But the hatches are open and there are no bodies, which indicates that the infantry inside survived and will fight another day.  For the Russian ifvs assaulting Vuledar this winter, it was a very different story.

This is what those vehicles are supposed to do.  Move infantry around and protect them.  Sometimes protecting then means sacrificing the vehicle, and that's exactly what happened.  You would rather not lose the vehicle, but you'd rather not assault a minefield either.  Sometimes the mission sucks and you just do your best.  

[Toth]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

One thing about these pictures of destroyed Bradleys that the Russians have been so proud to release.  Yes, it's like 8 destroyed vehicles in one small area (a minefield).  But the hatches are open and there are no bodies, which indicates that the infantry inside survived and will fight another day.  For the Russian ifvs assaulting Vuledar this winter, it was a very different story.

On Reddit I have actually seen a brief POV from one of the Bradleys. They managed to deplay a smoke screen and got out. Looked chaotic and messy, but many in the comments pointed out how surprised they were how overall well the Bradleys protected their crews.

[Maithanet]

I've found that account to be reliable. That is good progress, although it's impossible to say how costly it has been to make those gains.

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Wonder if Prighozin will just take his men to Africa

[Toth]

3 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Wonder if Prighozin will just take his men to Africa

This is going to get good! Prighozin already says he will refuse. So either Putin sees himself forced to club him down and dissolve Wagner, enforcing the law, or side with him, give an exception and embarrass Shoigu.

[SeanF]

It seems like quite the breakout is taking place.