The Ukraine War: Casus Belgorod

[Fez]

10 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yeah, Priogzhin's winning chances are rocketing up the clearer it becomes the Russia really does have jack shit to stop him with.

The part puzzling me is the lack of air assaults. There's been a few Russian attack helicopters and a few missile strikes, but that seems to be it. Wagner does have some air defenses, but not that much really; far less than Ukraine had in Feb 2022. Russia should have easy air superiority and be able to quickly annihilate the Wagner convoys. But that hasn't happened. Only thing that makes sense to me is that the air force are refusing orders, or have even swapped sides, en masse. But there's no evidence (yet) that any other elements of the Russian military/security forces are acting that way; and it would seem odd if only the air force had switched. 

[mormont]

The phrase 'that escalated quickly' gets somewhat overused these days. But...

[A Horse Named Stranger]

7 minutes ago, Fez said:

The part puzzling me is the lack of air assaults. There's been a few Russian attack helicopters and a few missile strikes, but that seems to be it. Wagner does have some air defenses, but not that much really; far less than Ukraine had in Feb 2022. Russia should have easy air superiority and be able to quickly annihilate the Wagner convoys. But that hasn't happened. Only thing that makes sense to me is that the air force are refusing orders, or have even swapped sides, en masse. But there's no evidence (yet) that any other elements of the Russian military/security forces are acting that way; and it would seem odd if only the air force had switched. 

I'd also say the Russian Air Force having opted to lay low makes most sense. But there's also a chance of the sanctions in the aviation sector having enhanced Russia's problem with combat readiness and that they have very few airworthy planes (or ammo for it). I mean, they failed to establish air superiority in Ukraine afterall. 

But yeah, if the Air Force was backing Putin, there really should be something.

Edited June 24, 2023 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Winterfell is Burning]

Even if Putin wins, anything other than complete defeat in Ukraine seems essentially impossible now 

[Corvinus85]

11 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I disagree that it is “totally unfair” this still seems like a variation.  But Caesar crossing the Rubicon has appeal too.  That said Rome was still, nominally, a Republic when Caesar did that.  Russia is not that.

We could also compare with some of the crises during the Roman imperial period. The Year of the Four Emperors comes to mind, where the Praetorian Guard played a major role. 

Thinking of mercenaries taking over a government, there is the example of Francesco Sforza taking the Duchy of Milan from the Visconti family, granted the guy married into the family and the last Visconti duke had no direct heirs. 

[Corvinus85]

16 minutes ago, Fez said:

The part puzzling me is the lack of air assaults. There's been a few Russian attack helicopters and a few missile strikes, but that seems to be it. Wagner does have some air defenses, but not that much really; far less than Ukraine had in Feb 2022. Russia should have easy air superiority and be able to quickly annihilate the Wagner convoys. But that hasn't happened. Only thing that makes sense to me is that the air force are refusing orders, or have even swapped sides, en masse. But there's no evidence (yet) that any other elements of the Russian military/security forces are acting that way; and it would seem odd if only the air force had switched. 

There might be a reluctance to hit Wagner when they're inside major Russian cities. All the videos we got so far, and posted here, come from civilians that are really close to said troops. However, once Wagner is out in the country side we might see more air strikes. However, I should think Wagner commanders know this and have taken steps to minimize casualties from air strikes. 

[BigFatCoward]

From someone who better understands the politics in the region, what is the best/worst case scenario.  

[Derfel Cadarn]

I wonder if Putin would consider a small tactical nuke on Wagner once away from cities?

The world isnt going to do much (beyond condemnation), Putin is feared again, no one’s going to rebel afainst him in numbers, and Ukraine/the west will be cautious as to how far they push him in future. 
 

 

[Ran]

3 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

From someone who better understands the politics in the region, what is the best/worst case scenario.  

I dare say the worst case scenario is Geraschenko's prognostication that if Prigozhin seizes power in the Kremlin, deposing Putin, that Russia will fall apart:

Quote

Kadyrov  and the leaders of other national subjects of the federation in the Caucasus, Povolzhie (Volga region), and Siberia, know that Prigozhin considers all of them second-class people and will easily give an order to shoot and destroy any of them. Therefore, they will negotiate with the local commanders of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, the Russian Guards, the FSB, and declare their independence from Prigozhin.

An armed war of clans will begin for power, for resources, there will be such chaos and disorder, compared to which the year 1917 will seem like a fairy tale.

One difference between 1917 and the present? There's nuclear silos all across Russia...

Now, is that as likely to hapen as Geraschenko thinks it will be? I'm not sure. Is Prigozhin really as unpragmatic as Geraschenko thinks? If he's just deposed Putin for launching a war to try and reclaim "ancestral territory", is he really going to provoke non-Slavic regions of Russia right after? 

Who knows.

But it's early days yet.

[Werthead]

44 minutes ago, Fez said:

The part puzzling me is the lack of air assaults. There's been a few Russian attack helicopters and a few missile strikes, but that seems to be it. Wagner does have some air defenses, but not that much really; far less than Ukraine had in Feb 2022. Russia should have easy air superiority and be able to quickly annihilate the Wagner convoys. But that hasn't happened. Only thing that makes sense to me is that the air force are refusing orders, or have even swapped sides, en masse. But there's no evidence (yet) that any other elements of the Russian military/security forces are acting that way; and it would seem odd if only the air force had switched. 

Russian commentators confident that the Su-57s and Armatas are standing by to go in at a moment's notice, but Putin is magnanimously giving Prigozhin a chance to surrender.

Meanwhile, Russian media reporting that Putin has fled to St. Petersburg, Peskov angrily denying it.

Wagner forces now geolocated in Yelets, almost 70 miles north of Voronezh, 220 miles from Moscow.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Werthead

[Darzin]

47 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I disagree that it is “totally unfair” this still seems like a variation.  But Caesar crossing the Rubicon has appeal too.  That said Rome was still, nominally, a Republic when Caesar did that.  Russia is not that.

Russia is almost the definition of a nominal republic. Putin even had to respect term limits that were in the constitution  before.

It's not just air assaults I'm surprised the bulk of the army is still in Ukraine considering the Wagner coup is an existential threat to Putin's regime and even his life. It's shocking that the totally optional Ukrainian war is continuing when enough soldiers exist to decisively defeat Wagner. 

[Werthead]

Pulling the troops out of Ukraine ends the war in Ukraine today, and possibly forever. It shatters Putin's image completely, he would not survive it even if he defeated Prigozhin in the short term.

Russian military forces are apparently congregating on Tula and there are some heavier defences there which might slow Wagner down. Tula is only 100 miles from Moscow.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, Darzin said:

It's not just air assaults I'm surprised the bulk of the army is still in Ukraine considering the Wagner coup is an existential threat to Putin's regime and even his life. It's shocking that the totally optional Ukrainian war is continuing when enough soldiers exist to decisively defeat Wagner.

Does the Russian MOD not trust the loyalty of the troops in Ukraine to fight against Wagner?

[Darzin]

4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Does the Russian MOD not trust the loyalty of the troops in Ukraine to fight against Wagner?

Maybe not, A lot of them seem to be not fighting rather than defecting. From the video reports I've seen which is not a great sample but still. This speed run towards Moscow honestly reminds me a lot of the Taliban's conquest of Afghanistan. With a small group of motivated fighters blitzing across the country. Russia's secrutiy forces may just not have the morale to take on motivated battle hardened veterans. Especially when the outcome is in such flux. 

[Maithanet]

12 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Does the Russian MOD not trust the loyalty of the troops in Ukraine to fight against Wagner?

Wagner keeps making statements about various military units either refusing orders to fight or outright defecting and joining up.  No way of knowing if this is true, because it totally benefits them to lie.  But I imagine that putin is worried about the loyalty of any troops it has to rely on.  They can call kadyrov, but what if the Chechens switch sides?  What if the drama between prigozhin and the Chechens was just manufactured for deception (a la the latest Abercrombie book).

Edit-Confusion and mistrust are Wagner's strongest weapons right now.  If Putin can figure out where everyone stands and move the loyalists to the right place, victory is assured.  But he has to guess right about who is loyal.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Maithanet

[Fez]

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Wagner keeps making statements about various military units either refusing orders to fight or outright defecting and joining up.  No way of knowing if this is true, because it totally benefits them to lie.  But I imagine that option is worried about the loyalty of any troops it has to rely on.  They can call kadyrov, but what if the Chechens switch sides?  What is the drama between prigozhin and the Chechens was just manufactured for deception (a la the latest Abercrombie book).

That one at least we should find out on soon. There's footage of the Chechen columns getting close to Rostov.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

29 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russian commentators confident that the Su-57s and Armatas are standing by to go in at a moment's notice, but Putin is magnanimously giving Prigozhin a chance to surrender.

Meanwhile, Russian media reporting that Putin has fled to St. Petersburg, Peskov angrily denying it.

Wagner forces now geolocated in Yelets, almost 70 miles north of Voronezh, 220 miles from Moscow.

Putin seems the sort of paranoid fellow who would use decoy planes but then travel by train. 

[Werthead]

Some reports that the Kremlin has issued a reward for Prigozhin's liquidation, including complete amnesty for all other Wagner forces.

Putin has signed a law permitting 30-day detentions for those breaching martial law. Some indications that Moscow may be placed under formal martial law imminently.

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Werthead

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Wagner keeps making statements about various military units either refusing orders to fight or outright defecting and joining up.  No way of knowing if this is true, because it totally benefits them to lie.  But I imagine that option is worried about the loyalty of any troops it has to rely on.  They can call kadyrov, but what if the Chechens switch sides?  What is the drama between prigozhin and the Chechens was just manufactured for deception (a la the latest Abercrombie book).

Unlikely. I think the split between the selfie squad and Wagner is real. And I am actually inclined to believe that Prigozhin actually gave Ukraine the coordinates of Delimkhanov (and that he is very much dead).

[A True Kaniggit]

I was wondering about fuel for the vehicles. 
 

But I suppose if this was planned, and not a spur of the moment thing, Wagner must have fuel trucks moving with the column.