Ukraine 31: Icarus Edition

[Corvinus85]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

Some Ukrainian claims that a Russian Shahed drone fell on Romanian territory and exploded last night, with pictures of fire rising above the river on the Romanian side. Romania has so far not confirmed this.

Ukraine's assault on Verbove has intensified, with Ukraine successfully widening its penetration point of the Russian second defensive line and more Ukrainian units operating behind these lines. Russia sent in a large detachment of reinforcements to Verbove but there were spotted and hit with cluster munitions. Verbove's western flank seems to have been firmly secured by Ukraine (not quite as impressive as that sounds, Verbove is a very thin, narrow town stretching from NW to SE).

Russia is protecting Tu-95 strategic bombers at its airbases by...covering them in truck tyres?

Erdogan has arrived in Sochi for a meeting with Putin. He will propose a plan to end the war, although the details are not clear. Erdogan had previously suggested Russia will have to leave all Ukrainian territory, including the Donbas and Crimea, although he knows that will probably not fly. 

Not only has Romania not confirmed it, they denied it. https://www.rferl.org/a/romania-denies-russian-drones-ukraine-/32577643.html

[Makk]

I have a bad feeling that Ukraine might have to continue to keep the pressure up throughout winter which will be a long hard slog for them. If Putin conducts a successful mobilisation (by success I mean getting another few hundred thousand untrained troops without causing a revolt), then it is important that they don't let Russia have the time prepare another massive defensive line. They don't want to have to start again next summer. I still believe and hope that Russia could just capitulate at any moment though.

[Zorral]

This is the first time I've heard of Cuba saying 'boo' to Russia, since the fascist traitor turned the Oval Office into his squat.

Cuba uncovers ‘human trafficking ring’ recruiting for Russia’s war in Ukraine
Havana says it is dismantling network seeking to recruit Cubans as mercenaries as Moscow attempts to boost its forces

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/cuba-uncovers-human-trafficking-ring-recruiting-for-russias-war-in-ukraine

BTW, there's also chatter that Russia's trying to move into Haiti, as a 'peacekeeping force.'  This is a situation in which I would hope the USA would invoke the Monroe Doctrine.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has lost its first Challenger 2 in combat. Looks like it was hit repeatedly from AT missiles, possibly both ground and helicopter-launched. However, the tank weathered the initial barrage intact, giving time for all four crewmembers to evacuate. The Russians really had to pummel it to knock it out of action, and even then both fuel tanks seem to have survived (one ejected as it was supposed to as well). Not entirely clear why a C2 was used for close-range assault, their primary purpose is a "sniper tank" used to hit targets with direct or indirect fire from huge distances (the C1 still holds the world record for tank-on-tank kill by destroying an Iraqi tank at over 3 miles during the Gulf War).

Ukraine has apparently launched a surprise assault on the Velyka Novosilka axis. They had been ramping down operations in this sector after initial successes, transferring momentum to the more important Robotyne-Tokmak sector. However, Russian forces have reported a major artillery bombardment, followed by Ukrainian assaults on Novodonetske and Novomaiorske.

Unconfirmed reports that several Ukrainian reconnaissance units have punched through the second defensive line between Verbove and Novoprokopivka and are almost at the third line. If Ukraine can penetrate the third line, there are no visible defences between there (the rear echelons of the third line) and Berdyansk. Ukraine could assault that sector in force and push open a wide channel between Russian forces and aim at the coast. A somewhat risky venture (not quite as suicidal as it sounds because of where Russian forces are pinned down in the west on the Tokmak-Melitopol axis and in the east at the Bakhmut-Donetsk City axis), but still risky. But easily their best chance to force a major collapse and regain of territory. Ukraine could prevent the western and eastern Russian halves of the southern front from mutual support, hugely complicate reinforcement, bring the coastal road from Crimea under fire control and allow them to strike at Tokmak and Melitopol from three sides rather than one. Berdyansk is also held more lightly than either Melitopol or Mariupol (the other, and more famous, two large cities in the region).

All of that presupposes that Ukraine has enough fuel in the tank in terms of resupply and reinforcement to manage that task. One of their elite "storm" units in the south is apparently down to 25% strength after months of heavy combat.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Werthead

[Maithanet]

The news out of Ukraine has definitely been a bit better the past week or two.  There are indications that the Russians are nearing the end of their strength.  They deployed the 76s Guards division last week from another sector, and that is perhaps the best unit in the RU military, one of the few remaining capable of complex offensive operations.  That is definitely not a unit you want defending trenches, if you can help it. 

But the Ukrainians are also suffering significant casualties and fatigue.  The dream is to punch throw the final line of defenses and then throw the Russian defenses into disarray/flight as Ukrainian reserves pour into open country.  The big fear is that instead both sides will simply grind themselves down, Ukraine runs out of steam just outside Tokmak, and by next spring the Russians have built even more, stronger, defenses and minefields. 

Even that isn't a total defeat - just getting to the outskirts of Tokmak would allow Ukraine to put much greater pressure on the Berdyansk-Melitopol highway and the key rail lines.  But it would nonetheless be a disappointment in the eyes of many and might impact that flow of Western supplies if the war starts leaning more towards stalemate. 

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Unconfirmed reports that several Ukrainian reconnaissance units have punched through the second defensive line between Verbove and Novoprokopivka and are almost at the third line. If Ukraine can penetrate the third line, there are no visible defences between there (the rear echelons of the third line) and Berdyansk. Ukraine could assault that sector in force and push open a wide channel between Russian forces and aim at the coast. A somewhat risky venture (not quite as suicidal as it sounds because of where Russian forces are pinned down in the west on the Tokmak-Melitopol axis and in the east at the Bakhmut-Donetsk City axis), but still risky. But easily their best chance to force a major collapse and regain of territory. Ukraine could prevent the western and eastern Russian halves of the southern front from mutual support, hugely complicate reinforcement, bring the coastal road from Crimea under fire control and allow them to strike at Tokmak and Melitopol from three sides rather than one. Berdyansk is also held more lightly than either Melitopol or Mariupol (the other, and more famous, two large cities in the region).

All of that presupposes that Ukraine has enough fuel in the tank in terms of resupply and reinforcement to manage that task. One of their elite "storm" units in the south is apparently down to 25% strength after months of heavy combat.

There's also a problem of roads, or lack of them. Supply trucks can't go over fields and hedges (I mean they can, just not very far), they need paved roads. Verbove by itself is a dead end, since no roads connect it to the Ukraine-controlled territory.

This is why Robotine was so important - it's on a road, or rather the road for that part of the line.

[SpaceChampion]

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

^^^ WT(everliving)F !!!

[Wilbur]

This is an interesting assessment from a Ukrainian serviceman on the training he and his fellow soldiers received from NATO.

The NATO training was useful, but also full of blind spots and intentional omissions.

As a lessons learned memo, I hope that our Armed Services are reviewing this sort of feedback.

Linkety link.

[Derfel Cadarn]

About 49 elite Russian VDV soldiers reportedly pinned down and killed
 

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-drone-romania-defence-minister-12541713?postid=6393209#liveblog-body

[The Wondering Wolf]

 

[Werthead]

Almost.

 

[Makk]

 

Interview with the pilot who defected with a combat helicopter. He mentions a lot of the Russian pilots just take off, get close to where they are supposed to be, shoot their missiles as quickly as possible without caring what they are shooting at, then get out of there. Also he mentioned that the commanders often commandeer the helicopters for their personal use. He flew 125km with an MI-6 as well to transport a commanders purebred cat.  

[A Horse Named Stranger]

On 9/1/2023 at 11:01 PM, A Horse Named Stranger said:

In unrelated news. Small news item from Einbeck, Lower Saxony, Germany.

An unknown man in his forties attacked a couple of kiddies from Ukraine and injured a 10 y.o. boy.

A group of kids met and they talked Ukrainian, which pissed of aforementioned quality human being, who told them to speak Russian. And apparently also claimed Ukraine started the war. He pulled a girl by the hair, grabbed the boy and tried to toss him into a channel. The boy landed on a metal lattice (I learnt a new word btw.) and threw a glass battle at the boy, which hit his left shoulder. He suffered an injury to his head and left foot. Police is investigating (possible attempted manslaughter).

 

Update/redaction.

Apparently the whole thing played out totally different.

Bunch of Ukrainian kids met up and played. They yelled Ukrainian swear words for fun. One guy passing by just happened to speak Russian and was not happy. He just grabbed the boy and the boy then jumped into the 4 deep water on his own.

The story about speak Russian and Ukraine started the war was apparently an invention by the girl. The kids played and soiled their clothes and since they were afraid to make their parents pissed they cooked up this story instead. After the police publicly looked for witnesses one woman came forward, who testified that she saw the boy already having had an injured foot while playing, probably cut himself on some glass shard. Overall more and more holes in the kids' story appeared. So the police asked them about it, and that's when they folded and admitted to it.

Whether the man throw a bottle at the boy is the last open question. Overall investigation was dropped.

 

[Zorral]

Elon Musk secretly ordered SpaceX engineers to switch off the Starlink satellite communications network near the coast of occupied Crimea in order to thwart a Ukrainian surprise attack on Russia’s naval fleet, according to a report. The incident last year is reported in Walter Isaacson’s upcoming biography of the billionaire titled Elon Musk. With the comms down, the Ukrainian submarine drones packed with explosives “lost connectivity and washed ashore harmlessly,” Isaacson writes, according to CNN. Musk was reportedly motivated to foil the attack out of concern that a strike on Crimea would constitute a “mini-Pearl Harbor” and lead to Russia retaliating with nuclear weapons. The SpaceX boss apparently began to question his decision to support Starlink being used for Kyiv’s military communications when Ukraine started to use the tech in offensive operations against Russia. “How am I in this war?” Musk asked Isaacson. “Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars. It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes.”

CNN Exclusive: ‘How am I in this war?’: New Musk biography offers fresh details about the billionaire’s Ukraine dilemma

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/07/politics/elon-musk-biography-walter-isaacson-ukraine-starlink/index.html
 

[Werthead]

Romania and NATO have now apparently confirmed that Shahed drones have fallen on the territory of Romania. At the moment Romania is downplaying the situation to say these were the result of interceptions and not intentional strikes on NATO territory (shades of the missile strike on Poland), but the margins are a bit thinner here.

Ukrainian forces have launched counter-attacks on the Russian thrust on the Kreminna front, apparently taking Russian forces by surprise. The Ukrainians made good use of the forest cover in this sector last year ahead of and during their counter-attacks, and Russian forces have driven back into the same areas where they were badly mauled last year and forced to retreat.

Ukraine has launched additional attacks near Vuhledar, and have upped the tempo on their attacks around the flanks of Bakhmut, although current analysis suggests that the Bakhmut offensive is something of a plot to lure Russia into packing the city with defenders who can then be attritioned by long-range fire.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Werthead

[Zorral]

Funny that when a government privatizes its military operations those to whom the government's outsourced start to believe they can and will set policy.  Both the US and Putin have been learning this lately it seems.

This is a shared article, subscription not needed to read.

https://wapo.st/3P7FAUw

Quote

 

.... When the Ukrainian military noticed that Starlink was disabled in and around Crimea, Musk got frantic calls and texts asking him to turn the coverage back on. Fedorov, the deputy prime minister who had originally enlisted his help, secretly shared with him the details of how the drone subs were crucial to their fight for freedom. “We made the sea drones ourselves, they can destroy any cruiser or submarine,” he texted using an encrypted app. “I did not share this information with anyone. I just want you — the person who is changing the world through technology — to know this.”

Musk replied that the design of the drones was impressive, but he refused to turn the coverage for Crimea back on, arguing that Ukraine “is now going too far and inviting strategic defeat.” He discussed the situation with President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley, explaining to them that he did not wish Starlink to be used for offensive purposes. He also called the Russian ambassador to assure him that Starlink was being used for defensive purposes only. “If the Ukrainian attacks had succeeded in sinking the Russian fleet, it would have been like a mini Pearl Harbor and led to a major escalation,” Musk says. “We did not want to be a part of that.” ....

After Prigozhin’s Death, a High-Stakes Scramble for His Empire
A shadowy fight is playing out on three continents for control of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s sprawling interests as head of the Wagner mercenary group. The biggest prize: his lucrative operations in Africa.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/world/europe/prigozhin-wagner-russia-africa.html

Quote

 

.... The accounts suggest that even in death, Mr. Prigozhin remains a defining figure of Mr. Putin’s Russia — encapsulating the secrecy, infighting and contradictory tactics of the Kremlin as it wages war against Ukraine.

He was “a sign of dysfunction, a screaming thermometer,” said Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin analyst in Moscow who said he knew Mr. Prigozhin. “If you take away the thermometer, it doesn’t change the situation.”

The scramble for Mr. Prigozhin’s assets — which he assembled as he traded on his multifaceted ability to serve Mr. Putin in return for government contracts — has far-reaching implications. His paramilitary group was Russia’s most effective fighting force in Ukraine in the last year, and its dissipation raises questions about Russia’s ability to mount new offensives. His media group, complete with an online “troll farm,” was instrumental in undercutting democratic institutions around the world. ....

 

 

Edited September 8, 2023 by Zorral

[JGP]

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

Funny that when a government privatizes its military operations those to whom the government's outsourced start to believe they can and will set policy.  Both the US and Putin have been learning this lately it seems.

This is a shared article, subscription not needed to read.

https://wapo.st/3P7FAUw

After Prigozhin’s Death, a High-Stakes Scramble for His Empire
A shadowy fight is playing out on three continents for control of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s sprawling interests as head of the Wagner mercenary group. The biggest prize: his lucrative operations in Africa.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/world/europe/prigozhin-wagner-russia-africa.html

 

" .... When the Ukrainian military noticed that Starlink was disabled in and around Crimea, Musk got frantic calls and texts asking him to turn the coverage back on. Fedorov, the deputy prime minister who had originally enlisted his help, secretly shared with him the details of how the drone subs were crucial to their fight for freedom. 'We made the sea drones ourselves, they can destroy any cruiser or submarine,' he texted using an encrypted app. 'I did not share this information with anyone. I just want you — the person who is changing the world through technology — to know this.'” 

Imagine having to kiss Musk's ass in order to properly defend your country, fuck out of here.

 

"Musk replied that the design of the drones was impressive, but he refused to turn the coverage for Crimea back on, arguing that Ukraine “is now going too far and inviting strategic defeat.” He discussed the situation with President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley, explaining to them that he did not wish Starlink to be used for offensive purposes. He also called the Russian ambassador to assure him that Starlink was being used for defensive purposes only. “If the Ukrainian attacks had succeeded in sinking the Russian fleet, it would have been like a mini Pearl Harbor and led to a major escalation,” Musk says. “We did not want to be a part of that.” ....

 

SpaceX and Starlink should be nationalized. Musk's damage isn't just a oafish threat to US National Security, clearly.

 

edit: cutting and pasting makes such a mess

Edited September 8, 2023 by JGP

[A Horse Named Stranger]

4 hours ago, Zorral said:

Funny that when a government privatizes its military operations those to whom the government's outsourced start to believe they can and will set policy.  Both the US and Putin have been learning this lately it seems.

You are missing the forest for the trees so to speak.

Star Link is not a military thing/contractor by design. And as loathable as I find Musk, I am inclined to believe him, that's not what he wanted for his company. His drama queen act aside.
The real issue is something completely different.

Star Link is providing Internet via satelites. Satelites are orbiting Earth. I know, I know, Captain Obvious. The less obvious thing is, that orbit =/= orbit. Those satelites only operate at a certain distance to Earth.  And that's where the real issue is. There's zero regulation about the use of that space (for lack of a better word). So it's basically like the gold rush in the US. You shoot your stuff into Earth stake your claim with it. All those Musk satelites are eating up space, that could otherwise be used by NASA, ESA etc. And like with the gold rush, the good spots are only there in limited numbers.

So it wasn't outsourced, but Musk was basically allowed to build a monopoly on space. It's absolutely insane.

[Corvinus85]

Musk effectively recognizes Crimea as belonging to Russia. Only that way could he, in his mind, think that Ukraine's attempted attack on the fleet parked in Crimean waters was an offensive action. Would he deny Ukraine use of Starlink for an assault on Russian tanks if they were a few kilometers from Kyiv? 

Edited September 8, 2023 by Corvinus85