Ukraine War: David And Goliath

[Ran]

51 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Josh Marshal predicts.

Eh? That's a response from one of his readers.

[Zorral]

Interesting and coherent enough that Marshall thought it worth sharing, yes?

[Werthead]

I don't think that analysis is entirely accurate. Ukraine instituted a military draft on Day 1 of the war, it's current army is certainly not a 100% volunteer force. It is true that the bulk of Ukrainian forces engaged so far has been their regular military, their effective territorial militia plus volunteers from Day 1, but there's been a lot of draftees also brought into the conflict. The stories of people swimming over the river into Romania to escape the draft and in some places being arrested for failing to report to duty stations are not total fabrications (even if their extent has been exaggerated by pro-Russian forces).

That said, Ukraine's problem has not been manpower per se but training, that's why they've outsourced so much training to other countries (the second or third wave of Ukrainian recruits are currently training in the UK and I believe France is at a similar place). There's a tight logjam with Ukrainian training which is a problem. Russia has a similar problem - somewhat insanely, there is only one (1) good military training facility in the entire Russian Federation, so they've been using a secondary facility in Belarus - although that's been mitigated by the Russian willingness to say fuck it to training and just putting untrained meat in the field. Ukraine has to be cleverer than that.

Ukraine does see a huge boon in using people who actually want to fight rather than those who don't, hence the recent call for volunteers from the diaspora and also showing willingness in putting people who want to serve but not die on the front lines to use elsewhere, especially as drone operators. But I've seen some analyses that Ukraine can't keep affording to do that forever.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Werthead

[SeanF]

9 hours ago, Erik of Hazelfield said:

What a tragedy it would be if any other deal than a full withdrawal of Russian forces from all of Ukraine came to pass. It would send the signal to all dictators out there that the old way is back, where might makes right and where you can invade your neighbouring countries for territory. It would send the signal that the West does care, just not enough to help the democratic side win. It would send a message to China that it’s quite fine to invade Taiwan as long as you make a good job of it. Moreover, it wouldn’t lead to a lasting peace because Russia has violated just about every treaty it has signed. They would only use the ceasefire to build up their military and then attack again later. 

There’s nothing more important right now than to give Ukraine what they need to kick out the Russians from their country, and the fact that there are politicians who seek to prevent this aid from flowing or use it for their own agenda is making me so angry I don’t know what to do. 

There’s been some indications the rest of the EU are going to find a workaround  to Viktor Orban’s veto of the aid to Ukraine. It’d be loans rather than direct aid but it’s always something.

https://kyivindependent.com/eu-proposes-debt-based-solution-to-fund-ukraine/

Agreed.  Orban and Putin’s other little elves in Western societies, are slime.  Ditto journalists like Peter Hitchens.

[Zorral]

Remember this guy, whose name we all were learning to spell correctly back in the spring and summer?  The WSJ has put up a special report on his assassination.

How Putin’s Right-Hand Man Took Out Prigozhin
Nikolai Patrushev, a top ally of the Russian leader for decades, put in motion the assassination of the mutinous chief of the Wagner mercenary group

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/putin-patrushev-plan-prigozhin-assassination-428d5ed8?

Putin, Isolated and Distrustful, Leans on Handful of Hard-Line Advisers
Russia’s president built a power structure designed to deliver him the information he wants to hear, feeding into his miscalculations on the Ukraine war

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-russia-ukraine-war-advisers-11671815184

 

[Maithanet]

I listened to an interview on Youtube with Mark Galeotti, and he had some interesting thoughts on the war.  He said:

 - Putin is getting weaker, but that doesn't mean the same as weak.  During a war, the only opinion that really matters is the people with guns.  Putin's inner circle (~10ish people) controls the military and the security apparatus, and have been selected for loyalty.  It isn't terribly likely any of them are going to rise up.  However, Prigozhin's mutiny made clear that loyalty to the state/Putin does not go very deep.  The regional commanders were basically MIA during the crisis, because they didn't want to pick the wrong side and thus made sure they were unreachable by higherups.  That is not the sign of a strong state.

 - Putin has shown great reluctance to shuffle his inner circle and bring in new blood.  He would much rather have someone incompetent like Shoigu than someone new who might not be as loyal.  Likewise Lavrov has requested retirement every year since 2014 and has been refused again and again.  Looking at the important people in Russia it is basically the same people it was in 2022 (minus Prigozhin, although he may not really be inner circle).  It is largely the same as it was ten years ago.   

 - Perhaps the biggest change in Russia since Putin's early days is the removal of the political middle ground.  In Putin's first two decades, the message was clear that you don't have to support Putin or the state - as long as you are apolitical, that is just fine.  Pay your taxes, keep your head down and Russia won't bother you.  This was actually pretty popular because a great many Russians are indeed apolitical and like it that way.  In the past two years, that has largely gone away.  You either support the War in Ukraine and Putin, or you don't (and you are a traitor).  This is a necessary step to demand wartime sacrifices of conscripts and money, but it is a tougher sell to the people to send men off to die than to just keep your head down.

[Zorral]

12 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Putin is getting weaker, but that doesn't mean the same as weak. 

From the WSJ report, link previous:

"In fact, he is kept in power by a vast bureaucracy that has proven durable through deepening hostilities with the West and rising domestic divisions over the botched invasion of Ukraine."

Quote

 

In interviews with Western intelligence agencies, former U.S. and Russian security and intelligence officials, and former Kremlin officials, The Wall Street Journal unearthed new details about the mutiny and murder of Russia’s most powerful warlord and the previously unknown role of Patrushev in reasserting Putin’s authority over an increasingly unstable Russia.

Through the power of state-controlled media and his own persona, Putin has unsettled the West with his image as a determined adversary who rules Russia alone. In fact, he is kept in power by a vast bureaucracy that has proven durable through deepening hostilities with the West and rising domestic divisions over the botched invasion of Ukraine.

Controlling the levers of that machine is Patrushev. He has climbed to the top by interpreting Putin’s policies and carrying out his orders. Throughout Putin’s reign, he has expanded Russia’s security services and terrorized its enemies with assassinations at home and abroad. More recently his profile has grown, backing Russia’s invasion, and his son Dmitry, a former banker, has been appointed agriculture minister and is touted by some as a potential successor to Putin.  ....

 

 

[Toth]

I apologize in advance, I'm in quite a foul mood. Another massive rocket and drone attack this night, likely in retaliation for the sinking of the ship... and more grim news about Ukrainians plagued by ammunition shortages. I guess the delivery of US cluster munition stockpiles was just delaying the inevitable, but is still depressing to see that Europe hasn't yet managed to get the ammunition factories rolling to give Ukraine what it needs to keep up with a Russia whose industry has successfully switched to war footing. Russia is focusing on the dumb, simple stuff, artillery and drones to keep the pain up and even though Ukraine is technically supplied with superior stuff, it's still nowhere near enough to change the tides decisively. And in fact it looks very much like the UA forces are taking unnecessary losses specifically because of these shortages.

It boggles my mind why there is no political will to gear it up a notch. And yes, I say it also from a German POV where political infighting has also killed more support. To give a bit of a background: The German budget for the next year had been tanked on a technicality because the conservative opposition sued the government (because no longer deemed necessary funds earmarked for Coronavirus measures had been reallocated to industrial transformation subsidies) and that forced the government to make severe cuts to get the now missing funds from... with the latest news before the holidays saying they achieved a "breakthrough" by apparently cutting all military aid to Ukraine and telling the ministry of defense that all Ukraine support that they still want to do now has to be paid by the money intended to increase the Bundeswehr's readiness. Meaning effectively one or (very likely) both aims will be sacrificed: https://apnews.com/article/germany-economy-budget-crisis-solution-scholz-7cd740fa5ae7ada83913aca436954a89

And that is just one of the stories. The other one being the US polarization being omnipresent in how the Republicans block everything. So apparently the future of our post-Helsinki Accords world order is less important than internal bickering, essentially proving Putin that the West is as weak as he thinks and even if the war is still devastating to Russia, I can't imagine it's not being perceived as a confirmation that not pulling out and cut his losses, but instead pushing on and going for a long war of attrition until "the West"'s will of supporting Ukraine falters, actually can very well pay off. We completely bungled the idea to make a show of strength and unity to force Putin to back off and pretty much set in stone that this will be a long, grueling and also very, very costly affair. Both for the Ukrainian people as well as for us who need to keep the Ukrainian economy on life support for the years to come, because apparently paying them off is easier than producing the means for them to protect themselves.

[Werthead]

Unconfirmed reports of a Ukrainian drone and missile attack on targets in and around Belgorod. Not clear on the extent of it.

Zelensky was on the front line today, visiting Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka less than 1km from the front.

Just breaking, a Russian missile has "landed" in Poland. It appears it did not explode and landed in a field, doing no damage. It's unclear at the moment if it overshot Ukraine, but some sources are saying it might have been fired from Kaliningrad. Poland has summoned the Russian ambassador and demanded an immediate explanation. (ETA: some reports the missile either overflew Poland into Ukraine or "drifted" from Ukrainian airspace into Polish and back again; the missile has not been found).

Another Russian civil aviation failure, a Boeing 735-500 making an emergency landing due to engine failure. At the moment it's looking like Russia will end 2023 with over ten times the number of civil aviation incidents it suffered in 2022.

Looks like Russia mounted another assault towards Kupiansk, which defenders had been bracing for for weeks. However, the Russians attacked directly into pre-zoned fire corridors and their main armoured column was destroyed almost immediately. The Ukrainians seemed a bit baffled by that (somehow, after two years of the Russians doing this shit).

Also looks like a limited Ukrainian counterattack in the Stepove area to shore up the flanks of Avdiivka. Several armoured vehicles destroyed, possibly ten BMPs and several tanks. Russian sources apparently said the attack was extremely ill-advised and troops on the front advised them not to advance but they were overridden by superiors. It looks Ukraine hit them with artillery and possibly Bushmaster fire from a Bradley IFV (which is a genuinely terrifying sight, and one the Russians are becoming uncomfortably familiar with).

Edited December 29, 2023 by Werthead

[Werthead]

That was the largest Ukrainian strike on a Russian city, with more than 70 drones and missiles fired at targets in and around Belgorod. Ukraine has claimed it was targeting military sites, the Russians are claiming civilian targets were hit. However, there's also claims that many of the munitions said to have been used could not have hit targets at that range, and some Russian S-300 air defence missiles apparently missed their targets and came down on the city (some alleged videos showing missiles going straight up, hitting nothing and coming down again). There are also some claims of a false flag attack, as one hotel was hit which apparently is used by western and other journalists which Ukraine had been informed about. A lot of confusion going on there, especially as Belgorod is not hugely strategically vital by itself.

What is bizarre is an apparently pre-prepared press release in which they confusingly called "Belgorod" "Belgrade."

Meanwhile, in a possibly strategic game-changing moment, Lukashenko has agreed to...sell eggs to Russia. Huh.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Werthead

[Gorn]

9 hours ago, Werthead said:

That was the largest Ukrainian strike on a Russian city, with more than 70 drones and missiles fired at targets in and around Belgorod. Ukraine has claimed it was targeting military sites, the Russians are claiming civilian targets were hit. However, there's also claims that many of the munitions said to have been used could not have hit targets at that range, and some Russian S-300 air defence missiles apparently missed their targets and came down on the city (some alleged videos showing missiles going straight up, hitting nothing and coming down again). There are also some claims of a false flag attack, as one hotel was hit which apparently is used by western and other journalists which Ukraine had been informed about. A lot of confusion going on there, especially as Belgorod is not hugely strategically vital by itself.

Belgorod is actually a major logistical hub for Russia, which makes it an important strategical target.

[ThinkerX]

10 hours ago, Werthead said:

That was the largest Ukrainian strike on a Russian city, with more than 70 drones and missiles fired at targets in and around Belgorod. Ukraine has claimed it was targeting military sites, the Russians are claiming civilian targets were hit. However, there's also claims that many of the munitions said to have been used could not have hit targets at that range, and some Russian S-300 air defence missiles apparently missed their targets and came down on the city (some alleged videos showing missiles going straight up, hitting nothing and coming down again). There are also some claims of a false flag attack, as one hotel was hit which apparently is used by western and other journalists which Ukraine had been informed about. A lot of confusion going on there, especially as Belgorod is not hugely strategically vital by itself.

What is bizarre is an apparently pre-prepared press release in which they confusingly called "Belgorod" "Belgrade."

Meanwhile, in a possibly strategic game-changing moment, Lukashenko has agreed to...sell eggs to Russia. Huh.

Maybe launch another such attack sometime - followed up immediately afterward by eight or ten thousand ticked off former Russian POW's equipped with captured Russian gear swooping in and seizing the city? Yes, it sounds absurd, but such a move would really cripple Russia and given the fiasco this summer, Russia might have quite a time getting rid of such pests...

[Loge]

12 hours ago, Werthead said:

What is bizarre is an apparently pre-prepared press release in which they confusingly called "Belgorod" "Belgrade."

No mystery there. From Wikipedia: 

Quote

The name Belgorod (Белгород) in Russian literally means "white city", a compound of "белый" (bely, "white, light") and "город" (gorod, "town, city"). The name is a reference to the region's historical abundance of limestone.^[14] Etymologically, the name corresponds to other Slavic city-names of identical meaning: Belgrade, Belogradchik, Białogard, Biograd, Bilhorod Kyivskyi, and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi.

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

So Biden has bypassed Congress twice to greenlight Ukraine aid and now aid for Israel making a 3rd bypass.

Its Ukraines turn now Mr Biden, lets get them some help, we cant rely on Congress sadly.

[Werthead]

Interesting information that's come out: the Patriot PAC-2s used by Ukraine destroyed 10 out of 10 Kinzahl "hypersonic" missiles launched at Ukraine in a recent attack. The US military believes the PAC-3, which Ukraine does not have (asterisked as apparently there are some reports they do have PAC-3, but in limited numbers), is far more capable of hypersonic interception, possibly including "proper" hypersonic missiles such as those fielded by China.

An Su-34 was destroyed parked on Shagol Airfield in Chelyabinsk, some 1600km from Ukraine. Reportedly a Ukrainian intelligence operation.

Multiple Ukrainian attacks on the Crimean Peninsula, destroying military targets including a radar installation outside Sevastapol.

Edited January 5 by Werthead

[Kalbear]

More on that su-34 being destroyed:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/04/a-ukrainian-saboteur-traveled-600-miles-to-a-snowy-russian-airfield-and-in-the-dead-of-night-lit-a-russian-sukhoi-fighter-bomber-on-fire/?sh=559c70e13d6e

Pretty amazing bit of work combined with pretty incredibly shitty opsec on Russia. 

[Wilbur]

I guess if you compare the cost of a Patriot missile <$6 million> versus the expense report of a guy (three hotel nights, one return first class train ticket, four days' per diem for meals, dry cleaning, tips for the concierge who gave directions to the airbase, reimburse $5 ATM fee, taxis, bottles of cheap, flammable alcohol, porter tips for luggage) who wanders out onto the airfield and sets fire to a fighter-bomber by hand <$458.32>, the hand-delivered destruction is a reasonable and economical model.

[Gorn]

Russia is incredibly vulnerable to intrusions by Ukrainian saboteurs. They know the culture, can visually blend in, speak perfect Russian, and even a bit of an accent or a Ukrainian last name isn't too out of place, since ethnic Ukrainians are a sizeable minority within Russia. And the number of potential targets in a country the size of Russia is mind-boggling and impossible to effectively guard.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Gorn said:

Russia is incredibly vulnerable to intrusions by Ukrainian saboteurs. They know the culture, can visually blend in, speak perfect Russian, and even a bit of an accent or a Ukrainian last name isn't too out of place, since ethnic Ukrainians are a sizeable minority within Russia. And the number of potential targets in a country the size of Russia is mind-boggling and impossible to effectively guard.

I mean that's true, but at the same time this isn't just some random target - this is the top of the line bomber that Russia doesn't have very many of, and most of them are in only a couple places. Whoever this was managed to get onto the military base and demolish the plane by literally setting it on fire, requiring them walking up to the actual thing and doing something there. 

That's, like, poor security for a store-it locker place. 

[Celestial]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

 

That's, like, poor security for a store-it locker place. 

Someone probably stole the money intended to pay the guards.