Ukraine War: David And Goliath

[Ran]

He wasn't really in danger, the launcher was pointed away from his drection of flight and not really angled so that they'd intersect. If he'd gone right over the launcher, though... yeah, that would have been bad.

[Zorral]

E.U. Leaders Agree to Open Membership Talks With Ukraine
After a bruising trip to Washington, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine welcomed a breakthrough in securing support from his allies as the war drags on

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/14/world/europe/eu-ukraine-hungary-aid.html

 

[Kalbear]

And the EU failed to pass $55bn in economic aid to Ukraine, thanks to orban. While it's not military aid it might hurt even more, and honestly I didn't see Europe turning their back quite this quickly. 

https://apnews.com/article/eu-ukraine-hungary-russsia-war-aid-6a3a5828483121f19193f76b373ca692

[SeanF]

On 12/14/2023 at 4:13 AM, Martell Spy said:

‘We’ll Be at Each Others’ Throats’: Fiona Hill on What Happens If Putin Wins
The veteran Russia watcher is deeply alarmed as Washington reaches an inflection point on the war in Ukraine.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/12/fiona-hill-ukraine-putin-00131285

 

It must have been like this in the 1930’s, as cowardly governments were desperate to buy off Hitler, at the expense of others.

[The Anti-Targ]

If aid for Ukraine from the US and EU is already starting to become uncertain the pundits who several months ago said Ukraine has lost the war they just don't know it yet are looking more right each time those powers waiver in their support. Putin will be laughing already at how weak Ukraine's allies are, and it will be shoring up is power in Russia.

[polishgenius]

4 hours ago, Kalbear said:

 and honestly I didn't see Europe turning their back quite this quickly. 

https://apnews.com/article/eu-ukraine-hungary-russsia-war-aid-6a3a5828483121f19193f76b373ca692

 

I don't know this, but the timing feels like Orban has done this in reaction to Poland- whose government can never allow itself to be seen as helping Russia- getting rid of his one ally.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I am kinda curious, whether we'd now have to votes to suspend Hungary's voting rights, or if Slovakia takes over from Poland as Hungary's partner in that suicide pact.

[Padraig]

3 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I am kinda curious, whether we'd now have to votes to suspend Hungary's voting rights, or if Slovakia takes over from Poland as Hungary's partner in that suicide pact.

That's a very good question.

Politico, for whatever that is worth, is blaming an incident from 2009 for making the Slovak PM hate Ukraine.  And he does get along with Orban.

https://www.politico.eu/article/slovakia-new-prime-minister-robert-fico-ukraine-war/

While the US system can be very intransigent, the EU system is probably worse with its 27 vetos.  And Orban is like a pantomime villain, except able to create real damage.  On the other hand, the EU does normally get there in the end, it just takes much longer than you'd like.  It is been reported here that if no agreement is reached with Hungary in the new year, the 26 other member states could come together on a bilateral basis to provide Ukraine with the extra funding, outside the EU’s structures.

So, I still imagine we'll have more EUish funding before  the US comes on board.

Opening EU negotiations is good news at least.  Moldova is included also.  And Georgia reaches EU candidate status, which is very significant also.  We are years from a result (and Orban can interfere later on also) but its something.

[The Anti-Targ]

4 hours ago, Padraig said:

That's a very good question.

Politico, for whatever that is worth, is blaming an incident from 2009 for making the Slovak PM hate Ukraine.  And he does get along with Orban.

https://www.politico.eu/article/slovakia-new-prime-minister-robert-fico-ukraine-war/

While the US system can be very intransigent, the EU system is probably worse with its 27 vetos.  And Orban is like a pantomime villain, except able to create real damage.  On the other hand, the EU does normally get there in the end, it just takes much longer than you'd like.  It is been reported here that if no agreement is reached with Hungary in the new year, the 26 other member states could come together on a bilateral basis to provide Ukraine with the extra funding, outside the EU’s structures.

So, I still imagine we'll have more EUish funding before  the US comes on board.

Opening EU negotiations is good news at least.  Moldova is included also.  And Georgia reaches EU candidate status, which is very significant also.  We are years from a result (and Orban can interfere later on also) but its something.

The one problem with that, at least for Eurozone countries, is that they don't have the ability to simply will Euros into being to give to Ukraine / spend on aid Ukraine needs, they would need to either take funds from other national spending, or use foreign debt (i.e. debt denominated in Euros, which if you do not have sovereign control of the currency is a foreign debt, even if you are using it as local legal tender), which is saddling future generations with a debt burden that can only be paid through taxation. When a decision is made at the EU level the ECB can create the money to get the work done without putting any member states in a foreign debt situation. Fortunately for those EU members and the UK who maintained control over their own currency they can provide bilateral financial aid without saddling themselves (or future generations) with foreign debt.

So, much much better for Ukraine aid to come from the EU than from EU member states.

[Padraig]

51 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

When a decision is made at the EU level the ECB can create the money to get the work done without putting any member states in a foreign debt situation.

I don't believe that is how that works.

And many EU/Eurozone countries have individually given money to Ukraine.

[The Anti-Targ]

27 minutes ago, Padraig said:

I don't believe that is how that works.

And many EU/Eurozone countries have individually given money to Ukraine.

That's not how they say it works, but when it comes down to the monetary operations that's how it works. Nothing stopping Eurozone countries from giving money to Ukraine, but its much less of a burden on member states if it comes from the EU centrally.

[Wilbur]

I recommend watching this interview with a Ukrainian infantry commander, who shows his mastery of personnel management in a warzone.

WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated): "This interview with one of the members of the Avdiivka garrison was recorded in November. "Zam", a company commander, has been in Avdiivka for many months now. He first saw massive Russian columns advancing on his positions on 10 October '23. This interview will give you an idea of the cost of holding off the hordes, and a truthful, unique insight into the mindset of a Ukrainian commander. Source: https://youtu.be/hEnb2-eXlaQ" | nitter

Successfully re-incorporting refuseniks into an effective unit is impressive rehabilition.

[Wilbur]

And this is a concise summary of the risks of failure for American efforts in Ukraine.

Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)

[Werthead]

Direct article link.

Excellent analysis, but the idea that a Trump-led USA might simply walk away from NATO and say fuck it as some or most of Europe falls to Russia seems utterly unfathomable to them, and it really should not be.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Direct article link.

Excellent analysis, but the idea that a Trump-led USA might simply walk away from NATO and say fuck it as some or most of Europe falls to Russia seems utterly unfathomable to them, and it really should not be.

While congress did just pass a law stating that a president cannot unilaterally withdraw from NATO, it is entirely reasonable to assume that Republicans in the future would be in lockstep with Trump or someone similarly aligned.

It's also remarkable how bad things are going for Ukraine so quickly. I've seen reports of artillery units not being able to fire on targets because they cannot expend the ammo on those and save ammo for defense. I've seen another article that Ukraine is lacking troops so badly that they are confiscating passports and going after mentally disabled people.

The US is such trash.

[SeanF]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Direct article link.

Excellent analysis, but the idea that a Trump-led USA might simply walk away from NATO and say fuck it as some or most of Europe falls to Russia seems utterly unfathomable to them, and it really should not be.

Stupid, cruel, and self-defeating.

The USA abandoning its allies does not enhance US power and prestige, but the reverse.

I read a fascinating article by Bret Devereaux, about the Roman Republic’s treatment of its allies.  Rome imposed unequal treaties, but one thing was always sacrosanct.  An attack upon an ally was treated as an attack upon Rome, and would result in massive retaliation.  Rome understood that its credibility was at stake, in a way the GOP does not.

[Celestial]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Stupid, cruel, and self-defeating.

The USA abandoning its allies does not enhance US power and prestige, but the reverse.

I read a fascinating article by Bret Devereaux, about the Roman Republic’s treatment of its allies.  Rome imposed unequal treaties, but one thing was always sacrosanct.  An attack upon an ally was treated as an attack upon Rome, and would result in massive retaliation.  Rome understood that its credibility was at stake, in a way the GOP does not.

I would argue that they do. It is just that this MAGA version of GOP does not care: I am willing too bet that they would be perfectly willing to trade half of Europe to Putin if this means they would get to rule the United States of Gilead as they saw fit. Denying aid to Ukraine hurts Biden politically and that is all they care about on this issue.

[Darzin]

I really think the Dems not bailing out Kevin McCarthy in return for Ukraine aid was a bad move. I know he was a total shit and didn't deserve it but I still think it would have been the right thing.

[hauberk]

2 hours ago, Darzin said:

I really think the Dems not bailing out Kevin McCarthy in return for Ukraine aid was a bad move. I know he was a total shit and didn't deserve it but I still think it would have been the right thing.

Entirely dependent on being able to count on McCarthy not immediately breaking any promises made. 

[mormont]

Yeah, contriving a way to make this the Dems' fault is a bit over and above.