International events

[Werthead]

The Iranian Republican Guard has issued a statement confirming the earlier UN Mission statement that this is a "restrained," one-off attack and there will be no repeat or continuation as long as Israel does not escalate further.

Meanwhile, some of the missile interceptions seem to have happened quite close to the Knesset, with debris hitting an area just to the south. That's about a mile and a half from the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock.

[Werthead]

 

[Jace, Extat]

Apparently Jordanian and U.S. fighters have shot down a number of drones.

[Werthead]

Iranian media stating that the attack is targeting military and government targets only.

Jordan has stated that it has not declared a state of emergency.

Iran reportedly warned Jordan not to "interfere" with the attack, which Jordan ignored to engage Iranian missiles overflying its territory. Jordan - probably correctly - gauged that an Iranian attack on an Arab country would antagonise Iran-friendly elements in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, and might spark renewed Saudi-Iranian enmity (which Saudi Arabia has put on hold for geopolitical posturing, but there seems limited enthusiasm in Saudi for really closer ties).

Some footage of missile debris having landed in Amman, the capital of Jordan.

Some footage reportedly showing missiles landing in the open desert in the Negev (presumably why they were not intercepted). However, there is a unconfirmed report of a Bedouin child being injured (some grumbling recently by Israeli Bedouins that they don't have the same protection from Iron Dome and Patriot as the rest of the country).

Unconfirmed reports that Iran has launched a second wave of missiles.

[Werthead]

The current big picture:

• More than 200 drones and missiles were launched by Iran towards Israel. Several waves of drones and two waves of missiles were launched with a time on target (so slow-moving munitions were launched first so faster-moving missiles would arrive simultaneously). The projectiles mostly overflew Iraqi and Syrian territory, but some overflew Jordan.
• The US, UK, Israel and Jordan launched aircraft to intercept projectiles before they could arrive in Israel. "Dozens" of missiles and drones were shot down over Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi territory before they could even reach Israel.
• American and Jordanian aircraft directly fired on Iranian drones; UK combat aircraft did not engage, but American aircraft used UK tankers out of Cyprus to refuel between interception missions.
• Iran used slower-moving Shahed drones and intermediate cruise missiles. Iran gave warning of the strike, publicising the launch times of its weapons and their ETA in Israel, effectively giving Israel significant warning to intercept many weapons before arrival.
• Despite wild claims of "attacks on Israel by four countries," only Iran and Yemen took part in the attack as part of a concerted effort; the Houthi weapons fired by Yemen do not appear to have been significant in number. Hezbollah did launch attacks across the border, but these were fully in keeping with recent border skirmishes and were not significantly worse than the recent normal.
• Lots of diplomatic wrangling: Egypt called for de-escalation, whilst Jordan made a calculated decision to intervene in Israel's defence, apparently rejecting Iranian threats of retaliation if they did so. The Iranian Foreign Minister hinted that it had communicated via Qatar with the United States over the scale of the attack.
• Iran has confirmed this was a "single" strike designed to retaliate against the recent consulate attack in Damascus and there will be no further attacks unless Israel retaliates with direct strikes on Iranian soil.
• Direct interceptions of Iranian weapons over Israel took place, with at least one drone apparently aimed at the Knesset Building in Jerusalem shot down. Light damage took place from falling debris.
• There was a concentration of missiles and drones targeting an Israeli airbase in the Negrev. The base's defences destroyed multiple missiles and drones, but it appears at least two missiles hit the base and multiple missiles impacted in the surrounding desert, reportedly wounding one Bedouin child (if the single civilian casualty from this attack was Muslim, that's not a great look for Iran). Unconfirmed reports of some military injuries at the airbase.
• The attack appears to be over, despite some claims of later secondary and tertiary launches which would not yet have arrived.
• Israel has indicated it will respond in some fashion, but is calibrating this with the United States. Some rumours that Jordan has used its willingness to help defend Israel to encourage Israel to mitigate any response.

In addition, we have confirmation that at least one ballistic missile was fired at Israel; Israel used an Arrow ABM to destroy the missile whilst it was still in space.

 

Edited April 14 by Werthead

[Spockydog]

Not now, World War III.

 

 

[Prince of the North]

1 hour ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said:

It would have been on behalf of the lizard people if they supported him. Trump doesn't give two shits about religion. 

I believe you're right that Trump doesn't care about religion (or anything but himself, really).  But that in no way negates the fact that he'll continue to try to deliver things the Christian nationalists want in order to maintain their allegiance.  He knows he needs them.  Surely one thing, perhaps the only thing, Trump actually understands is transaction.    

[A True Kaniggit]

28 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The current big picture:

 

• There was a concentration of missiles and drones targeting an Israeli airbase in the Negrev. The base's defences destroyed multiple missiles and drones, but it appears at least two missiles hit the base and multiple missiles impacted in the surrounding desert, reportedly wounding one Bedouin child (if the single civilian casualty from this attack was Muslim, that's not a great look for Iran). Unconfirmed reports of some military injuries at the airbase.
• The attack appears to be over, despite some claims of later secondary and tertiary launches which would not yet have arrived.
• Israel has indicated it will respond in some fashion, but is calibrating this with the United States. Some rumours that Jordan has used its willingness to help defend Israel to encourage Israel to mitigate any response.

 

But no deaths reported so far? 

That seems to be the main factor right now, a way to deescalate for both parties.

Iran can say they retaliated for the attack on their consulate,  but Israel has not suffered enough damage where they will feel compelled to retaliate.

Edited April 14 by A True Kaniggit

[Spockydog]

23 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

But no deaths reported so far? 

That seems to be the main factor right now, a way to deescalate for both parties.

Iran can say they retaliated for the attack on their consulate,  but Israel has not suffered enough damage where they will feel compelled to retaliate.

Fingers crossed. 

 

[TheLastWolf]

I just got the hell up and the world nearly ended?

Spoiler

where's my toothpaste...

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Spockydog said:

Not now, World War III.

WW3 will probably never be in play, at least as things stand now. I'd bet the more likely scenario is numerous small wars occurring all over the world with displacement being a giant problem no state really has any interest in dealing with. The US, EU and China really don't have much appetite for being dragged into something that goes beyond supplying and if those actors don't join the dance it will probably be mostly things on the scale of Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine. I guess the one thing that is most likely to change things and make shit serious is China acting on Tawain and Hong Kong, but I have no earthly idea how that nightmare will play out.  

1 hour ago, Prince of the North said:

I believe you're right that Trump doesn't care about religion (or anything but himself, really).  But that in no way negates the fact that he'll continue to try to deliver things the Christian nationalists want in order to maintain their allegiance.  He knows he needs them.  Surely one thing, perhaps the only thing, Trump actually understands is transaction.    

He needs them to get reelected. After that, who knows wtf he'll do if he's successful. 

I also wouldn't say he understands transactions. Merely that he wants to be a part of them and look good in the process. When they work, he claims all the credit despite doing little to no work. And when they don't he fires people while putting the blame entirely on them. 

[A True Kaniggit]

18 minutes ago, TheLastWolf said:

I just got the hell up and the world nearly ended?

  Reveal hidden contents

where's my toothpaste...

where's my toothpaste...

I broke it down to 2 antiseptics and 1 plastic.

I needed the crafting materials.

[Heartofice]

This looked scary last night, but seems to be just another case of dick waving in the region.

[karaddin]

If Iran is satisfied with waving it's dick around in response to the consulate bombing then I'll take it. Escalation is really not something anyone needs.

[Heartofice]

6 minutes ago, karaddin said:

If Iran is satisfied with waving it's dick around in response to the consulate bombing then I'll take it. Escalation is really not something anyone needs.

Sure but we also shouldn't act like the consulate bombing came out of nowhere, rather it was an escalation between two countries who have been digging at each other for a long while, Iran has been funding Hezbollah and others to create proxy wars for a long time. 

It doesn't sound like Iran will take this much further, face is saved. There is also a school of thought that it would not be able to escalate a lot more than this anyway. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

After a day of racism and islamaphobia in the wake of the horroble stabbings in Sydney, it’s revealed that the culprit is in fact … white.

So now it’s mental health rether than terrorism

https://news.sky.com/story/sydney-stabbings-police-name-attacker-who-killed-six-people-as-joel-cauchi-13114960

[Prince of the North]

7 hours ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said:

He needs them to get reelected. After that, who knows wtf he'll do if he's successful.  

Good point.  I think, if he has his way, he won't ever need them again if he's re-elected.

Quote

I also wouldn't say he understands transactions. Merely that he wants to be a part of them and look good in the process. When they work, he claims all the credit despite doing little to no work. And when they don't he fires people while putting the blame entirely on them.

Agreed that he's very, dare I say it, narcissistic in his transactions but that doesn't make him any less transactional.  I didn't necessarily mean to imply competence when I said he "understands transactions".  I didn't express well that I simply meant he's completely transactional.

[Makk]

4 hours ago, karaddin said:

If Iran is satisfied with waving it's dick around in response to the consulate bombing then I'll take it. Escalation is really not something anyone needs.

I'm not worried about Iran. I'm worried what netanyahu is doing to do now. I can easily see him going completely over the top again. 

[kissdbyfire]

15 minutes ago, Makk said:

I'm not worried about Iran. I'm worried what netanyahu is doing to do now. I can easily see him going completely over the top again. 

That’s exactly it imo. Israel attacked Iran’s embassy, Iran responded in a measured way I guess? This should be the end of this specific back and forth. But it won’t be if Netanyahu decides he has to retaliate. And since everything points to him wanting a broader war and to drag the US into it so he can stay in power, yeah, that’s what we should be worrying about. 

[ljkeane]

It should also be noted that Iran has said they would have been satisfied with a UN Security Council condemnation of the Israeli attack on their embassy but that was blocked by the US along with the UK and France. Biden really has been pretty terrible on anything related to Israel.